One Stat That Could Define The Horned Frog's 2026 Season

TCU’s offense has finished near the bottom of the Big 12 in rushing yards per game for two consecutive seasons. In 2026, Jeremy Payne and Gordon Sammis are being asked to change everything.

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Jeremy Payne (26) scores on a 35-yard touchdown reception in overtime for the winning score against the Southern California Trojans during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Number That's Been Hiding in Plain Sight

Every TCU fan knows about the turnovers. They know about the passing yards, the big-arm quarterback, the offense that lit up scoreboards but couldn't deliver a Big 12 title. But the quiet, mundane stat that explains almost everything is rushing yards per game.

In 2024, TCU ranked 13th in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game at 113.92. In losses that year, the number dropped to 73.50. Then in 2025, things barely improved. TCU finished 14th in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game with 131.38. In losses, that number fell to just 77.50.

For a program chasing its first conference title since 2014 and a return to the College Football Playoff, that single stat is the story. And in 2026, it's the stat that will define whether the Horned Frogs take the next step, or stay stuck.

How TCU Got Here

The Dykes era at TCU began with a magical 2022 run that reached the national championship game, and the rushing game was a genuine weapon. TCU averaged 193.3 rushing yards per game during that 2022 run. The offense was balanced, the offensive line was dominant, and opposing defenses couldn't go all-out on the quarterback because they had to respect the run.

Nov 5, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Emari Demercado (3) runs past Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker Tyrique Matthews (32) during the first half of a game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Then something shifted. The program leaned more and more into the passing game, and the ground attack quietly disappeared. In 2023, TCU ranked 10th in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game at 154.5 yards and 10th in yards per carry at 4.6. These numbers were manageable, but trending in the wrong direction. By 2024 and 2025, it had become a genuine liability, the kind of weakness opposing defensive coordinators could confidently game-plan around.

The consequences were direct and measurable. TCU didn't rank in the top 70 nationally in rushing yards per game in any of Josh Hoover's three seasons as a starter, which forced the quarterback to shoulder an enormous passing load. That weight contributed directly to Hoover's turnover issues. When a team can't run the ball, defenses know it. They pin their coverage, bring extra pressure, and force the quarterback into tighter windows. It becomes a repeating cycle of dysfunction.

Jeremy Payne: The Reason for Optimism

Here's where the 2026 storyline gets interesting. Because buried inside TCU's disappointing team rushing numbers from last season was an individual performance that flashed a completely different future.

Jeremy Payne ended the 2025 season as TCU's leading rusher, posting 623 yards and five touchdowns on 110 carries, a 5.7 yards-per-carry average, along with 207 receiving yards out of the backfield. Those aren't numbers of a running back holding a team back. Those are the numbers of a player who, given the right system and the right volume of carries, could anchor an entirely different offensive identity.

Payne closed the regular season with back-to-back 100-yard performances, including 174 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries against Cincinnati. He also ended the Alamo Bowl against USC on a game-winning touchdown, where he tiptoed down the sideline after a pass from Ken Seals. He was at his best when TCU committed to him, and that's the key phrase heading into 2026. Commitment. For years, the Horned Frogs didn't commit to the run. In 2026, everything suggests that's about to change.

Sonny Dykes had praise for Payne after one of those late-season breakout performances: "He's tough. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he runs big and finishes plays. He's consistent and does his job at a high level." A head coach praising his running back's toughness and consistency isn't just a compliment, but a signal of how that player will be used going forward.

Gordon Sammis: Built to Run

The most important addition TCU made this offseason wasn't Jaden Craig. It was Gordon Sammis.

The new offensive coordinator arrives from UConn with a balanced run-pass approach. But what often gets overlooked in the Sammis conversation is just how committed his offenses are to the ground game. Sammis ran an offense that averaged 160.8 rushing yards per game. That's 29 more yards per game on the ground than TCU managed in 2025. It was a run game built on physicality, run-blocking identity, and consistent commitment to the run regardless of game situation.

Spring practice has already shown a new offensive identity under Sammis, with under-center looks, tight ends, and a stronger run-game focus emerging. That's a direct departure from the pass-first approach that defined the previous offensive staff.

Former UConn offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis looks on during a Huskies football game. | UConn Athletic

What 150 Rushing Yards Per Game Would Mean

The target number for TCU in 2026 is simple: 150 rushing yards per game. It's a number that is entirely achievable given what Payne showed late in 2025 and what Sammis built at UConn.

Hitting 150 rushing yards per game would accomplish three things. It would take pressure off Jaden Craig in his first FBS season. It would keep defenses honest and create the one-on-one coverage opportunities in the passing game that TCU's receivers need to thrive. And it would give this team a physical identity in close games, the kind of games TCU has consistently struggled to win when the run game disappears entirely.

A brand new running game is what's required for TCU to move back into Big 12 contention. The Horned Frogs have the running back. They have the offensive coordinator. They have the motivation. Whether they commit to see it through is the one stat that will define the entire 2026 season.

TCU will open up its 2026 football season in Ireland on August 29th against a much-improved UNC. This match-up is part of a series bringing American college football to Ireland.