UFC Fight Night Mexico: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg full card picks & predictions

The UFC returns to Mexico City this Saturday with an event headlined by top-ranked flyweights, and MMA KO’s Drew Beaupré is here to provide predictions for all 13 fights on the card.

UFC Mexico is headlined by two-time Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg, who earned a crack at reigning titleholder Alexandre Pantoja in just his fourth UFC bout but now finds himself on the first two-fight skid of his career.

The card also features a lightweight co-main event between Drew Dober and Mexico’s Manuel Torres in a bout that should produce firewords for the fans at Arena CDMX.

Alexandre Pantoja fights against Steve Erceg during UFC 301 at Rio Arena. | Jason Silva-Imagn Images

UFC Fight Night Mexico Main Card Predictions

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

Erceg gave a good account of himself in his surprise title shot against Pantoja at UFC 301, but a follow-up loss to Kai Kara-France leaves the Australian in need of a big win if he wants to remain in the flyweight title picture.

Brandon Moreno (red gloves) fights Amir Albazi (blue gloves) in a flyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Rogers Place. | Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Moreno reminded fans that he’s still one of the UFC’s very best flyweights when he shut down Amir Albazi last November, and now “The Assassin Baby” is well-positioned to score another huge victory in front of the fans in his home country.

(Pick: Moreno)

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober

They might not be massive names, but this lightweight co-main event has the potential to steal the show at UFC Mexico.

Drew Dober (red gloves) fights Jean Silva (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Ball Arena. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

An unbeaten start to Torres’ UFC career was halted in his last outing against Ignacio Bahamondes, and while “El Loco” is more than capable of finishing Dober I have to side with the lightweight veteran if he can avoid getting clipped early on.

(Pick: Dober)

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Set to be inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame this summer, Gastelum will try to build on the momentum of his last win over Daniel Rodriguez when he squares off with the hard-hitting Pyfer.

Sean Brady (red gloves) fights Kelvin Gastelum (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Moody Center. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

“Bodybagz” will carry a pretty significant height and reach advantage into this matchup, but provided Gastelum’s impressive chin is still intact I think he’s capable of pulling off the upset.

(Pick: Gastelum)

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales

Morales has had a tough go of things since returning to the UFC last year, and he finds himself as a sizeable underdog heading into this fight with the 20-year-old Rosas.

Raul Rosas Jr. (red gloves) fights Aoriqileng (blue gloves) during Riyadh Season Noche UFC 306 at Sphere. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

A veteran like Morales is definitely the sort of fighter that can cause problems for Rosas. I do think “El Niño Problema” should win, but I have some concerns about if he may get caught in one of his opponent’s front chokes while hunting for a takedown.

(Pick: Morales)

David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira

Martinez’s unique background is exactly the type of thing the UFC loves to use as promotional material, and it also helps that he’s a proven finisher on a seven-fight win streak.

Tony Gravely (red gloves) competes against Saimon Oliveira (blue gloves) during UFC 270 at Honda Center. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

I always hate seeing debuting fighters lined as such big favorites, but Martinez will likely hand Oliveira his third-straight loss here and possibly bounce him from the UFC in the process.

(Pick: Martinez)

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

It’s unfortunate that Rodriguez was the only fighter to miss weight ahead of UFC Mexico, as it feels like he could be poised to become a breakout star for the promotion.

Ronaldo Rodriguez (red gloves) fights Ode Osbourne Jamica (blue gloves) during Riyadh Season Noche UFC 306 at Sphere. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Borjas’ first two UFC bouts were against tough competition in Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa, and as with the Martinez vs. Oliveira matchup this feels like it could be the end of the road for him in the UFC.

(Pick: Rodriguez)

UFC Fight Night Mexico Preliminary Card Predictions

Edgar Cháirez vs. CJ Vergara

Edgar Chairez (red gloves) fights Joshua Van (blue gloves) during Riyadh Season Noche UFC 306 at Sphere. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Both of these men are in need of a win to preserve their spot on the UFC roster, and I have to pick Cháirez to make the most of fighting in his home country.

(Pick: Cháirez)

Ateba Gautier vs. Jose Medina

Ateba Gautier prepares to face Yura Naito in a middleweight fight during Dana White's Contender Series. | (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

The clear expectation here is that Gautier will kick off his UFC career with a big finish, and Medina might end up being one of a few fighters that enters the Octagon for the final time at UFC Mexico.

(Pick: Gautier)

Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez

Julian Erosa (red gloves) fights Christian Rodriguez (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Ball Arena. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

This fight could easily have fit on night’s main card. It would be fun to see Costa score back-to-back wins just a month apart, but I think Rodriguez will be able to get things done in what should hopefully be a fun featherweight scrap.

(Pick: Rodriguez)

Julia Polastri vs. Lupita Godinez

Lupita Godinez fights Ariane Carnelossi during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A four-fight win streak had Godinez on the verge of title contention before she suffered a pair of losses last year, and this matchup with Polastri is a good opportunity for “Loopy” to get back on track in her home country.

(Pick: Godinez)

Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel

Clay Guida fights Rafa Garcia during UFC Fight Night at T-Mobile Center. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

I consider Garcia to be a bit underrated in the lightweight division, but something about how wide the current betting lines are has me feeling like Pichel can beat father time and score an upset win.

(Pick: Pichel)

Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda

Nate Landwehr (red gloves) fights Jamall Emmers (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Boardwalk Hall. | Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

Emmers has struggled to find consistency since his UFC debut in 2020, and I think his trend of alternating wins and losses will continue at UFC Mexico at the expense of Miranda.

(Pick: Emmers)

Austin Hubbard vs. MarQuel Mederos

Austin Hubbard fights Alexander Hernandez during UFC 307 at Delta Center. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Hubbard is in danger of having his second UFC run cut short if he were to fall to 1-3 since coming off The Ultimate Fighter 31, and I’ll pick “Thud” to rise to the occasion and end Mederos’ seven-fight win streak.

(Pick: Hubbard)

MMA KO will be providing comprehensive coverage for UFC Fight Night Mexico all throughout fight week, and be sure to check back on our homepage for a preview of the event as well as live results and highlights on fight night.

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