Fantasy Clicks: A PPR quandary for the masses

BY JAY CLEMONS Recent Fantasy Clicks 05-26-10: A PPR Quandary For The Masses 05-24-10: Sunny Rays Take Houston By Storm 05-20-10: Let The Mock Madness Begin 05-17-10: For Whom The Kubel Tolls 05-14-10: Less Bang For Your Bucs 05-12-10: The Marshall Plan Hits South Beach 05-10-10: The Mother Of All Perfect Games 05-06-10: Fantasy Love Is Blind Sometimes 05-03-10: Phantastic Fantasy Fun In Philly 04-30-10: Kings Of Command 04-28-10: The Post-Draft Mock Madness Quotient 04-26-10: Here Come The Sun Kings 04-21-10: Fantasy Breakdown Of 2010 NFL Sked 04-19-10: Nothing Beats A Royal Flush 04-16-10: Oh, The Cantu-Man Can 04-14-10: Santonio's Fly-By-Night Move to N.Y. 04-12-10: Something Wild In The D 04-09-10: The Tao Of Jose Reyes 04-07-10: Donovan's D.C. Cab ... To Landover 04-05-10: Welcome To Opening Night Revelations 04-02-10: Nothing Beats A Real Fantasy Draft 03-31-10: One More Mock For The Road 03-26-10: A Fantasy-Fueled NFL Draft Breakdown 03-22-10: Fantasyland Prose & Cons: Mauer Power 03-19-10: The NL-Only Fantasy Spectacular 03-15-10: The AL-Only Fantasy Spectacular 03-12-10: Post-free agency adjustments in fantasy 03-10-10: In Case Of Emergency: Twins' Closer 03-08-10: Fantasy Preview Breakdown, Part III 03-03-10: Fantasy Preview Breakdown, Part II 03-01-10: NFL Combine Revelations 02-26-10: A Fantasy Preview Breakdown 02-24-10: Green Flag Goodness: Hitters 02-17-10: Green Flag Goodness: Pitchers 02-15-10: Red Flag Alerts: Pitchers 1-27-10: Red Flag Alerts: Infielders 1-25-10: Championship Sunday Revelations 1-22-10: Playing A Championship Sunday Hunch 1-20-10: Early Mock Draft Madness 1-18-10: Divisional Playoff Revelations 1-15-10: Divisional Playoff Round Clicks 1-13-10: Back In The Baseball Business 1-11-10: Wild Card Revelations 1-06-10: Fantasy Clicks Year-End Spectacular 1-04-10: Wild Card Round Clicks 12-28-09: Week 16 Revelations/Week 17 Clicks 12-23-09: All You Need To Know For Week 16 12-21-09: Week 15 Revelations 12-18-09: Thursday Night Revelations (Week 15) 12-16-09: Dontcha Hate When That Happens? 12-13-09: Week 14 Revelations 12-11-09: Thursday Night Revelations (Week 14) 12-09-09: Fantasy Playoff Rules To Live By 12-07-09: Week 13 Revelations 12-04-09: Thursday Night Revelations (Week 13) 12-02-09: The Believers Of Calvinism 11-30-09: Week 12 Revelations 11-27-09: Turkey Day Revelations 11-25-09: All Hail The Perfect Showdown 11-23-09: Week 11 Revelations

Calling A Fantasy Audible At The Line

Reggie Wayne (L) and Dallas Clark/Harry How: Getty Images

I was going to spend a sizable chunk of today's column on Matt Forte and why fantasy owners would be foolish to ignore my prediction for 1,600 total yards and/or nine touchdowns this season; but it seems my Clicks predecessor devoted his entire Tuesday article to the real-world plight/fantasy delight of the Martz/Cutler-led Bears ... so, there's no reason for back-to-back analyses of the NFC North's third- or perhaps fourth-best team. Let's try Plan B ...

A PPR Quandary For The Masses

As a viable substitute to Forte and Co., here are the results from Monday's 12-team experts' mock draft with NFL.com. The group of savants included Adam Caplan (Scout.com/Sirius radio), Chris Liss (Rotowire), ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft, Scott Engel (RotoExperts.com), Cory Bonini (KFFL.com) and Craig Ellenport/Michael Fabiano of NFL.com, among others. I drew the No. 9 overall pick for the Points Per Reception league draft, a virtual no man's land for those who missed out on Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and Ray Rice ... but were a little queasy about taking Larry Fitzgerald or the enigmatic Randy Moss so high:

Round 1
1. Chris Johnson, Titans (great call for PPR leagues ...)
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (... although AP would be my #1 choice in standard leagues)
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
4. Ray Rice, Ravens
5. Andre Johnson, Texans (think he'll be motivated to dominate this season?)
6. Frank Gore, 49ers
7. Steven Jackson, Rams
8. Shonn Greene, Jets (this one's a real head-scratcher)
9. Michael Turner, Falcons (my pick)
10. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
11. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (interesting move for Round 1 -- he's amazing)
12. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers

Round 2
13. Randy Moss, Patriots
14. Cedric Benson, Bengals
15. Drew Brees, Saints
16. Reggie Wayne, Colts (my pick)
17. Calvin Johnson, Lions (he'll need to score 10 TDs to justify this PPR pick)
18. Miles Austin, Cowboys
19. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
20. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (would probably be higher if no surgery)
21. Pierre Thomas, Saints
22. Ryan Mathews, Chargers (talk about a leap of faith with rookies)
23. Roddy White, Falcons (can catch 85 balls in his sleep this year)
24. Peyton Manning, Colts

Round 3
25. Sidney Rice, Vikings (easily brings Round 2 value in PPRs)
26. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (would've been a Round 1 choice if no Thomas Jones)
27. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
28. Marques Colston, Saints
29. Greg Jennings, Packers
30. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
31. Tom Brady, Patriots
32. Steve Smith, Giants
33. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (my pick)
34. Joseph Addai, Colts
35. Steve Smith, Panthers (the public has greater faith in Matt Moore than Jake Delhomme)
36. Ryan Grant, Packers

Round 4
37. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
38. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
39. C.J. Spiller, Bills
40. Dallas Clark, Colts (my pick)
41. LeSean McCoy, Eagles (old Shady could be a PPR monster in the Reid/Mornhinweg offense)
42. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
43. Antonio Gates, Chargers
44. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
45. Philip Rivers, Chargers
46. Tony Romo, Cowboys
47. Matt Schaub, Texans
48. Jermichael Finley, Packers

Lets's Play This One Out

For what it's worth, my PPR squad would have contended for the NFL.com league title:
Round 1 -- RB Michael Turner, Falcons
Round 2 -- WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
Round 3 -- WR Anquan Boldin, Ravens
Round 4 -- TE Dallas Clark, Colts
Round 5 -- WR Percy Harvin, Vikings
Round 6 -- WR Hines Ward, Steelers
Round 7 -- RB Steve Slaton, Texans
Round 8 -- WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys
Round 9 -- QB Joe Flacco, Ravens
Round 10 -- QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Round 11 -- WR Austin Collie, Colts
Round 12 -- WR Early Doucet, Cardinals
Round 13 -- RB Darren Sproles, Chargers
Round 14 -- RB Brian Westbrook, Free Agent
Round 15 -- D/ST Green Bay Packers, Patriots
Round 16 -- PK Rob Bironas, Titans

Verdict: Aside from Turner (who should be a lock for 1,800 total yards/14 TDs), five of my first six picks have wonderful pedigrees in PPR leagues. In fact, Wayne and Clark (tied for 5th), Ward (8th) and Boldin (11th) finished amongst the reception leaders for 2009; and Harvin, Slaton, Bryant, Doucet and Sproles all have the capacity for 60-plus catches this season. Last but not least, if you've read anything from me in previous Clicks ... you know that I don't need to justify Stafford's eventual greatness in this space.

Practice Makes Perfect

Sports Illustrated and SI.com should always be your primary source for voluminous information leading up to fantasy drafts ... but if you're in the mood to participate in a LIVE mock draft on the Web -- while learning NOT to reach for LaDainian Tomlinson before Round 8 -- here are the best destinations for real-time mocking:

**Mock Draft Central
**AntSports.com
**CBS Sports
**ESPN Mock Draft Lobby
**Fantasy Football Calculator

The Power Of ADP

The calendar only reads May 26, but the good people at Fantasy Football Calculator are already working to make mathematical sense of this year's top fantasy football prospects. In fact, this site represents the perfect one-stop shopping for mock drafts and the Average Draft Position tool (ADP) -- perhaps the best learning aid for NOT reaching during the August drafts. Speaking of ADP, here's a list of running backs likely earmarked for Rounds 1-4 (12-team leagues):

Chris Johnson, Titans/Adrian Peterson, Vikings -- Round 1, Pick 2 (dead heat)
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars -- Round 1, Pick 3
Ray Rice, Ravens -- Round 1, Pick 4
Frank Gore, 49ers -- Round 1, Pick 5
Michael Turner, Falcons -- Round 1, Pick 7
Steven Jackson, Rams -- Round 1, Pick 9
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers -- Round 1, Picks 10
Shonn Greene, Jets -- Round 2, Pick 1
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers -- Round 2, Pick 4
Cedric Benson, Bengals -- Round 2, Pick 7
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs -- Round 2, Pick 11
Ryan Grant, Packers -- Round 2, Pick 12
Ryan Mathews, Chargers -- Round 3, Picks 1
Pierre Thomas, Saints -- Round 3, Pick 9
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos -- Round 3, Pick 10
Beanie Wells, Cardinals/LeSean McCoy, Eagles -- Round 3, Pick 12 (dead heat)
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers/Ronnie Brown, Dolphins -- Round 4, Pick 7 (dead heat)
Matt Forte, Bears -- Round 4, Pick 11
Joseph Addai, Colts -- Round 4, Pick 12

Target Practice

A receiver is only as good as his quarterback ... and the number of opportunities he gets to make a catch (Targets). Here are the only 29 receivers to accrue 100 or more targets last season:

1. Andre Johnson, Texans (171 Targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (165 Targets)
3. Wes Welker, Patriots (162 Targets)
4. Steve Smith, Giants (157 Targets)
5. Brandon Marshall, Broncos -- now Dolphins (154 Targets)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (153 Targets)
7. Reggie Wayne, Colts (149)
8. Santonio Holmes, Steelers -- now Jets (138)
9. Randy Moss, Patriots (138)
10. Hines Ward, Steelers (136)
11. Calvin Johnson, Lions (136)
12. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks (134)
13. Derrick Mason, Ravens (134)
14. Steve Smith, Panthers (129)
15. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals -- now Ravens (128)
16. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals (128)
17. Miles Austin, Cowboys (124)
18. Sidney Rice, Vikings (121)
19. Santana Moss, Redskins (120)
20. DeSean Jackson, Eagles (118)
21. Greg Jennings, Packers (118)
22. Davone Bess, Dolphins (113)
23. Donald Driver, Packers (112)
24. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars (111)
25. Terrell Owens, Bills -- now free agent (109)
26. Marques Colston, Saints (106)
27. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (106)
28. Nate Burleson, Seahawks -- now Lions (103)
29. Torry Holt, Jags -- now Patriots (103)

Choose Your Quarterback

Philip Rivers: James D. Smith/Icon SMI

Tom Brady has three Super Bowl trophies, the NFL single-season touchdown record, one supermodel wife and the NFL Network distinction of being the greatest "draft-day steal" in NFL history. Oh, and for good measure, he just might be the best quarterback of all time (or at least in the discussion with Montana, Unitas, Marino, Elway, Favre and Manning). But even Captain America might have trouble emerging victorious against San Diego's Philip Rivers -- as part of a 1-on-1 fantasy matchup ... on the off chance you land Brady and Rivers in the same draft (Rounds 3/4) and wasn't sure whom to start. Here's a week-by-week breakdown of the quarterbacks currently ranked Nos. 4 and 5:

Week 1 -- Rivers (@ Kansas City) over Brady (vs. Cincinnati)
Week 2 -- Rivers (vs. Jacksonville) over Brady (@ N.Y. Jets)
Week 3 -- Rivers (@ Seattle) over Brady (vs. Buffalo)
Week 4 -- Rivers (vs. Arizona) over Brady (@ Miami)
Week 5 -- Rivers (@ Oakland) over Brady (BYE)
Week 6 -- Rivers (@ St. Louis) over Brady (vs. Baltimore)
Week 7 -- Rivers over Brady (New England @ San Diego)
Week 8 -- Brady (vs. Minnesota) over Rivers (vs. Tennessee)
Week 9 -- Brady (@ Cleveland) over Rivers (@ Houston)
Week 10 -- Brady (@ Pittsburgh) over Rivers (BYE)
Week 11 -- Brady (vs. Indianapolis) over Rivers (vs. Denver)
Week 12 -- Brady (@ Detroit) over Rivers (@ Indianapolis)
Week 13 -- Rivers (vs. Oakland) over Brady (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Week 14 -- Rivers (vs. Kansas City) over Brady (@ Chicago)
Week 15 -- Brady (vs. Green Bay) over Rivers (vs. San Francisco)
Week 16 -- Brady (@ Buffalo) over Rivers (@ Cincinnati)
Week 17 -- Brady (vs. Miami) over Rivers (@ Denver)
Final Tally: Rivers wins, 9-8

Verdict: Yes, Rivers prevailed in the head-to-head race (although we could've flipped a coin for Weeks 3, 4, 11 and 17), but let's give Brady major props for staging the mother of all comebacks -- winning of eight of the last 10 games, after trailing 7-0; and let's also give Brady big-time credit for reversing his fortunes later in the season, when the Patriots should encounter 7-8 games (after Week 9) in potentially treacherous East Coast weather; and at the very least, Brady appears to be the stronger option during the fantasy-playoff weeks of 14-16.

The Fortunate Ones

By my count, there are only 14 legitimate workhorse tailbacks amongst the 32 NFL teams this season. A "workhorse" back is someone who logs more than 50 percent of the carries/touches in three scenarios -- 1) On first down 2) On 3rd and long, and 3) With goal-line touches. Here's the list of Alpha-dog rushers:

1. Chris Johnson, Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
4. Ray Rice, Ravens
5. Steven Jackson, Rams
6. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
7. Frank Gore, 49ers
8. Cedric Benson, Bengals
9. Michael Turner, Falcons
10. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
11. Ryan Grant, Packers
12. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
13. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
14. Clinton Portis, Redskins (neither Larry Johnson nor Willie Parker are classic third-down backs, so whoever wins the battle in the preseason should be The Man after Sept. 1 -- barring injury)

The Ultimate 1-2 Punches

Conversely, here are the 18 greatest time-shares at running back:
1. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
2. Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones, Chiefs
3. Shonn Greene/LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
4. Joseph Addai/Donald Brown, Colts
5. Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams, Dolphins
6. Marion Barber/Felix Jones/Tashard Choice, Cowboys
7. Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw/Andre Brown, Giants
8. Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush, Saints
9. Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter, Broncos
10. C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch, Bills
11. LeSean McCoy/Mike Bell, Eagles
12. Matt Forte/Chester Taylor, Bears
13. Darren McFadden/Michael Bush, Raiders
14. Steve Slaton/Ben Tate/Arian Foster/Ryan Moats, Texans
15. Jerome Harrison/Montario Hardesty, Browns
16. Justin Forsett/Leon Washington/LenDale White, Seahawks
17. Jahvid Best/Kevin Smith, Lions
18. Laurence Maroney/Sammy Morris/Fred Taylor, Patriots

Paradoxically Speaking

**I cannot wait for the NFL preseason to start in 74 days ... and yet, I'll be bored silly by the first time NBC announcer Al Michaels utters his favorite three-dollar word: Alacrity.

**I refuse to take Matt Hasselbeck in any fantasy draft this season ... and yet, I have no reservations about Justin Forsett logging the majority of Seahawks carries/touches over Julius Jones, Leon Washington and LenDale White.

**I'm not bothered by Brandon Marshall's spinning wheel of annual off-field distractions (this year it's hip surgery!) ... and yet, I have no interest in devoting a Round 6 or higher draft pick on Wes Welker, who's coming off the first and only major surgery (knee) of his collegiate and pro career.

**There's nothing more frustrating than having a non-bye-related revolving door at kicker or defense/special during a season ... and yet, I steadfastly refuse to grab a quality kicker or defense before the third-to-last round of any draft -- no matter the scoring system.

**Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco could hook up for six preseason touchdowns ... and yet, I would rather have the Matt Leinart/Larry Fitzgerald handcuff for the regular season.

**I plan on DVR'ing every single preseason game that's not on national TV (thanks to the NFL Network) ... and yet, I'll never see one millisecond of any second half (since there is NOTHING to be gleaned, fantasy-wise, from exhibition garbage time).

What's In A Name?

The uber-creative geniuses at Fantasy Football Toolbox have constructed a team name generator for the jet-set crowd of moniker-challenged fantasy owners. Traditionally, I'll name my own squads after breakfast cereals (i.e. Count Chocula's Henchmen) or TV shows and sports/pop-culture figures (The Fighting Skippy Handelmans); but now, I may offer FF Toolbox the chance at securing the name rights for my SI.com & Friends league team ('10 football).

Speaking of the Toolbox, here are the updated auction values for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and linebackers (since they own the greatest pound-for-pound value in IDP leagues).

I Cannot Leave Without ... Movie Trivia

Without cheating (and I know some of you beloved scoundrels will do so anyway), I would like the Clicks readers to T-R-Y and name this rather-famous actor from the 1973 horror flick, Cannibal Girls. The thespian in question appears at precisely the 1:00 mark of this clip -- in only his second movie credit of what has become a long, distinguished career in Hollywood. Please direct all answers to my Twitter page; and if you're looking for a clue ... hmmm, maybe one of the above links reveals all. (cue evil laugh)

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