Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Waiver wire pickups to star in Week 7
We’ve been dealing with byes since Week 4, but this is the first week of the season that truly tests the skills of the fantasy community. Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver and Chicago, the four teams on bye in Week 7, contribute regular, locked-in, no-doubt-about-it, starters up and down the fantasy ledger. With all those key players out, many fantasy owners will have to turn to their depth to get a win this week.
The good news for those owners is that if they’ve been mining the waiver wire over the first six weeks of the season, they should be ready to weather the bye-week storm. Players like Stefon Diggs (not totally buying your coach speak, Norv Turner), Theo Riddick and Christine Michael are ready for their close-ups in Week 7 standing in for a Randall Cobb or Matt Forte or Giovani Bernard. These are the kinds of weeks where regular season titles are won. Hopefully your depth is up to the challenge.
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With that, get all the last-minute news you need to set your lineups with our Week 7 Cheat Sheet.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Bills | 23rd | 15th | 23rd | 23rd |
Jaguars | 20th | 27th | 15th | 18th |
Vegas lines
Bills -4
Over/under 41
Bills o/u 22.5
Jaguars o/u 18
No Tyrod Taylor or Sammy Watkins should mean a lot of LeSean McCoy for the Bills in London. The Jaguars, meanwhile, will almost certainly lean on the passing game, especially if T.J. Yeldon is out because of his groin injury. Whichever team can control that flow will likely come out on top.
Player who could surprise: Robert Woods
Watkins is set to miss this week’s game with an ankle injury. At least he made the trip across the pond, which is more than can be said for Percy Harvin. With those two receivers out, Woods shoots to the top of the depth chart. Even though the Bills will lean on McCoy, E.J. Manuel is going to have to make some plays through the air. Woods should be his favored target.
Player who could disappoint: Allen Robinson
Robinson is in for a matchup with Ronald Darby, which could double as the matchup to watch in this game. He has 13 catches on 21 targets for 158 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks, but Darby ranks seventh among corners in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. He held A.J. Green to four catches for 36 yards, and Odell Beckham to five for 38.
Matchup to watch: LeSean McCoy vs. Jacksonville run defense
The Jaguars have been terrible against the run again this year, ranking seventh from the bottom in Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Their formula for winning this game is to slow down McCoy and put the ball in the hands of Blake Bortles. That will be easier said than done.
Injury report
Tyrod Taylor (knee): Out
Sammy Watkins (ankle): Out
Karlos Williams (concussion): Out
Percy Harvin (personal): Out
Kyle Williams (knee): Out
LeSean McCoy (hamstring): Probable
T.J. Yeldon (groin): Questionable
Allen Hurns (ankle): Probable
Allen Robinson (shin): Probable
Julius Thomas (chest): Probable
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Vikings | 4th | 12th | 10th | 24th |
Lions | 22nd | 26th | 24th | 25th |
Vegas lines
Vikings -3
Over/under 44.5
Vikings o/u 24
Lions o/u 21
The Lions may be 1-5 with their only win coming against the Bears, but it’s still a surprise to see them as three-point dogs at home against the Vikings. The team totals do come out to a half-point higher than the over/under, so there could be more scoring than some expect.
Player who could surprise: Charles Johnson
Stefon Diggs emerged over the last two weeks, catching 13 of his 19 targets for 216 yards. Despite that, as well as Johnson’s underwhelming performance this year, the latter was apparently back ahead of Diggs in three-wide sets in practice, with Jarius Wright in the slot. If Johnson does indeed get his starting gig back, he could take advantage of Rashean Mathis, who has allowed an 81.8% catch rate this year.
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Player who could disappoint: Matthew Stafford
The Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks and 10th fewest to receivers, holding Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning in check. Stafford did get them for 20.4 points in Week 2, but this is a legitimately tough pass defense. He’s a high-end QB2 for Week 7.
Matchup to watch: Calvin Johnson vs. Harrison Smith
Smith is a safety, but with the combined struggles of Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman, you can bet Smith will be over the top of almost every route Johnson runs on Sunday. While Minnesota’s corners have had issues this year, Smith ranks second in coverage among safeties.
Injury report
Charles Johnson (ribs): Probable
Adrian Peterson (finger): Probable
Joique Bell (ankle): Probable
Eric Ebron (knee): Probable
Calvin Johnson (ankle): Probable
Theo Riddick (groin): Probable
Golden Tate (ankle): Probable
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Saints | 31st | 28th | 11th | 29th |
Colts | 25th | 20th | 30th | 13th |
Vegas lines
Colts -5
Over/under 52.5
Saints o/u 24
Colts o/u 29
Most intriguing players of Week 7: Can Stefon Diggs, Lamar Miller keep it up?
By any measure, both of these passing games have come up short of their preseason expectations. That should turn around this week, as reflected by a game total of 52.5 points. This has the feel of the first truly dominant performance for Andrew Luck this season. He may have been overdrafted, but he’s not a guy who remains quiet all season.
Player who could surprise: Dwayne Allen
We’re all expecting big things from Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. On the other side, Drew Brees typically gets his, but he does so with a rotating cast of pass-catchers. These teams have struggled against the run all year, making both Mark Ingram and Frank Gore safe RB2s with RB1 upside. If someone is going to surprise in this game, it will likely be a Colt tight end, and Allen is flying under the radar. The Saints have surrendered the fourth-most points per game to the position this year.
Player who could disappoint: Brandin Cooks
I’m just going to keep putting Cooks as the player to disappoint in Saints games until he proves to me that I need to go in another direction. Brees threw for 312 yards and a touchdown last week, yet Cooks had just four catches for 41 yards. He has had fewer than seven points in standard-scoring leagues in four of his six games this year. Throw in a likely matchup with Vontae Davis and he’s a WR3 at best.
Matchup to watch: Saints run blocking vs. Colts run defense
The Saints have been surprisingly efficient blocking for Ingram and the run game this season, rating sixth in blocking on Pro Football Focus and eighth in overall offense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Saints still live on Brees’ right arm, but Ingram could be a huge factor in this game.
Injury report
Marques Colston (shoulder): Probable
• Fantasy waiver wire: Christine Michael, Stefon Diggs worth looks for Week 7
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Steelers | 19th | 3rd | 20th | 30th |
Chiefs | 30th | 10th | 32nd | 8th |
Vegas lines
N/A
The Steelers still haven’t announced their starting quarterback for this game, but all signs point to Ben Roethlisberger being out one more week with his knee injury. That means Landry Jones will almost certainly make his first career start. Get ready for a ton of Le’Veon Bell, who could see his first 30-touch game of the year.
Player who could surprise: Albert Wilson
Even if it is Jones under center, the Steelers are going to be able to put up some points against this Kansas City defense. Alex Smith is going to have to make plays in the passing game, but he may not have Jeremy Maclin, who has missed practice until Friday with a concussion. If he is indeed out, Wilson would take over as the No. 1 receiver, though Travis Kelce, who could be in line for a huge game given the Steelers issues with tight ends this year, would still be Smith’s most dangerous target.
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Player who could disappoint: Martavis Bryant
If the Steelers go 3-1 without Roethlisberger, which would be their record since losing their starting quarterback with a win on Sunday, they’d look back at this month as the crucial stretch in their schedule. To do that, they’re going to lean on Bell as much as possible. Bryant is a worthy starter after what he did in his season debut, but he’s not going to be able to rely on huge yards-after-catch plays for all of his fantasy value.
Matchup to watch: Antonio Brown vs. Marcus Peters
This matchup would be a lot more fun to watch if Roethlisberger were healthy, but it will still be one of the best on the field at Arrowhead. Peters is flourishing as a rookie, hauling in three interceptions and rating as Pro Football Focus’ 20th-best cover corner through six weeks. Brown will, of course, give him his toughest route-running test to date.
Injury report
Ben Roethlisberger (knee): Questionable
Jeremy Maclin (concussion): Questionable
Dontari Poe (ankle): Questionable
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Texans | 27th | 23rd | 17th | 22nd |
Dolphins | 9th | 19th | 18th | 17th |
Vegas lines
Dolphins -4.5
Over/under 44.5
Texans o/u 20
Dolphins o/u 24.5
The Dolphins finally turned in a performance befitting their preseason expectations, a great sign given that it was the first game of the Dan Campbell era. The Titans may have been a willing patsy, but getting the Texans at home isn’t much more of a challenge.
Player who could surprise: Brian Hoyer
Hoyer has ranked ninth and sixth in fantasy points at the quarterback position in the last two weeks, and was 14th in Week 4, despite not starting that game. He’s going to have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Miami, and could easily volume his way to another QB1 week, especially with DeAndre Hopkins doing his thing on the other end of at least 15 of those passes.
Player who could disappoint: Arian Foster
The fantasy community showered all of its attention on the Dolphins offense last week, but this defense may have found its fastball, as well. Foster has been quietly disappointing since returning from his groin injury, running for just 94 yards on 37 carries the last two weeks. He has made an impact in the passing game, but you don’t want to count on that if you’re a Foster owner.
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Matchup to watch: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Brent Grimes
Hopkins has become an elite receiver right before our eyes, but he’ll have a tough test in Grimes, a corner who season after season rates as one of the best in coverage. We should get to see this battle play out over 15-plus targets on Sunday.
Injury report
Cecil Shorts (hamstring): Out
Arian Foster (groin): Probable
Jadeveon Clowney (ankle): Questionable
New York Jets at New England Patriots
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Jets | 2nd | 1st | 6th | 4th |
Patriots | 26th | 5th | 25th | 14th |
Vegas lines
Patriots -9
Over/under 48
Jets o/u 19.5
Patriots o/u 28.5
The Patriots are undefeated and potentially the best team in the NFL, but it’s hard to believe the line is this big. The Jets have an elite defense and an offense that won’t be cowed by the big boys on the other side of the field. This is going to be a close game, with both teams getting at least into the mid-20s.
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Player who could surprise: Ryan Fitzpatrick
The Patriots are the Patriots, but Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have established themselves as one of the most dangerous trios in the league. With that being the case, why wouldn’t Fitzpatrick have a good game in this crucial AFC East showdown? He has been a bit mistake prone this year, but the Patriots have allowed the seventh-most points per game to quarterbacks, and you can usually bet on the volume being good when trying to keep pace with Tom Brady.
Player who could disappoint: Dion Lewis
Over the last four weeks, LeGarrette Blount has had 47 carries to Lewis’ 18. Lewis makes up for that in the passing game, but Blount has still outtouched him 49 to 34 after including receptions. Over the last two weeks, Blount’s edge is 30 to 21, and we know he’s going to get the ball in short-yardage situations. The game flow may benefit Lewis, but Blount is the better Patriot back to play this week.
Matchup to watch: Julian Edelman vs. Darelle Revis
Revis has played just 34 snaps in the slot this year, so it’s not like we’re going to see these two going at it all game. Still, you can bet Revis will draw at least a few snaps against Edelman, and those snaps will produce arguably the best receiver-corner matchup of the weekend. Remember, these guys saw a lot of each other as teammates in practice last season.
Injury report
Eric Decker (knee): Probable
Brandon Marshall (calf): Probable
Dion Lewis (abdomen): Questionable
Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Browns | 24th | 30th | 21st | 15th |
Rams | 3rd | 22nd | 7th | 9th |
Vegas lines
Rams -6
Over/under 42
Browns o/u 18
Rams o/u 24
This game has a real chance to turn into the most boring affair of Week 7, without a ton of fantasy star power on either side. There could, however, be one saving grace, so long as you aren’t going up against a certain rookie running back who should dominate this game.
Player who could surprise: Todd Gurley
No one will be surprised when Gurley lights up the Browns defense, which has allowed the third-most points per game to running backs and is 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. What could be a surprise, however, is just how bad he makes them look. Gurley has rushed for at least 140 yards in both of his starts this season. He could approach, or surpass, 200 on Sunday.
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Player who could disappoint: Josh McCown
Outside of Gurley, there isn’t anyone in this game who is a slam-dunk starter in standard fantasy formats, making it a challenge to say someone will be a true disappointment. McCown has turned into a reliable play in two-QB leagues, though, so his matchup with a pass defense that is eighth in DVOA and fifth in pass rush could leave his owners wanting a whole lot more.
Matchup to watch: Rams offensive line vs. Browns run defense
The Rams are just in the middle of the pack in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus, but every team that has faced the Browns this year has pushed them around. If the Rams do that, we could be looking at a historic day for Gurley.
Injury report
Joe Haden (concussion): Out
Gary Barnidge (ankle): Probable
Tavon Austin (thigh): Questionable
Chris Long (knee): Out
Alec Ogletree (ankle): Out
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Falcons | 6th | 31st | 4th | 26th |
Titans | 17th | 7th | 13th | 27th |
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Vegas lines
Falcons -6
Over/under 48
Falcons o/u 26.5
Titans o/u 21.5
The Falcons are laying six points in this game, but their team total is just five points higher than Tennessee’s. The Titans’ defense is better than you realize, ranking ninth in overall DVOA, though they have been much better against the pass than the run. That’s bad news with Devonta Freeman in town.
Player who could surprise: Dorial Green-Beckham
Green-Beckham took a major step in his development last week, playing 40% of the Titans’ snaps for the first time this season. He’s going to enjoy an expanded role for the rest of the year, and has already shown a proclivity to take advantage of his opportunities. Even though Zach Mettenberger will start in place of the injured Marcus Mariota, Green-Beckham can be a surprise player this week.
Player who could disappoint: Devonta Freeman
Look, you’re starting Freeman with confidence, as you should every week for the rest of the season. The bottom line, however, is that he’s not going to continue putting up 25-point games with regularity. He has to slow down at some point, and this Tennessee defense has surrendered the seventh-fewest points per game to running backs. The advanced metrics don’t like the Titans nearly as much against the run, but that doesn’t mean they’re a pushover. The Falcons do boast the best run blocking in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
Matchup to watch: Julio Jones vs. Titans secondary
The Titans rank eighth in pass coverage and second in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, but they don’t have one corner who really stands out in coverage. This unit gets it done as a group, and it will have to bring that mentality to the field Sunday to slow down Jones.
Injury report
Roddy White (foot): Probable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Buccaneers | 21st | 21st | 28th | 2nd |
Redskins | 11th | 9th | 22nd | 10th |
Vegas lines
Redskins -3.5
Over/under 43
Buccaneers o/u 20
Redskins o/u 23.5
So this is what it takes for Washington to be favored by more than a field goal? A visit from the lowly Buccaneers? Call me crazy, but I like the road team. In a game like this, I’ll take the team that actually has some firepower on offense.
Player who could surprise: Mike Evans
No one will be truly surprised by a huge game from Evans. After all, this is a guy who had nearly 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns as a rookie. The big game is coming sooner or later. Like we talked about with Todd Gurley a little earlier in the column, Evans has the ability to put up a monster this week. Washington is in the bottom half of the league in pass coverage and doesn’t have a healthy corner who can stay with Evans. The team’s pass rush has been good this season, but they’ve still allowed the 11th-most points per game to receivers. Evans breakout game is right around the corner.
Player who could disappoint: Alfred Morris
Matt Jones is expected to return from his toe injury this week, which puts him back in the league’s most frustrating timeshare. Morris had the backfield all to himself last week, and all he did with the opportunity was run for 21 yards on 11 carries. If you continue to invest in this backfield, allow me to sell you a desk, upon which you can bang your head. Seems like you’re kind of thing.
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Matchup to watch: Doug Martin vs. Washington run defense
Through the first four weeks of the season, Washington boasted one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. In the two games since, Devonta Freeman and Chris Ivory have combined for 299 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and 94 receiving yards. Martin could give them fits this week.
Injury report
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder): Out
Chris Thompson (back): Doubtful
DeSean Jackson (hamstring): Out
Chris Culliver (knee): Out
DeAngelo Hall (toe): Out
Jordan Reed (concussion): Questionable
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Raiders | 16th | 11th | 14th | 32nd |
Chargers | 7th | 32nd | 3rd | 19th |
Vegas lines
Chargers -4
Over/under 47
Raiders o/u 22
Chargers o/u 26
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The Raiders aren’t a terrible team by any stretch of the imagination, but this is a really bad matchup for a team that has had trouble against the pass all year. Given the way Philip Rivers is playing, both the line, as well as San Diego’s team total, feel low. That could, however, mean plenty of volume for Derek Carr and Amari Cooper.
Player who could surprise: Ladarius Green
The fantasy community is all over Antonio Gates, as it should be, but Green remains a key player in this offense. Even if Gates plays this week, Green is worth a start in most fantasy formats. He still played 70.2% of the snaps last week, catching three passes for 35 yards and a score. Green is one of the big playmakers in San Diego. The Chargers will continue to find ways to get him and Gates on the field together.
Player who could disappoint: Latavius Murray
This is undoubtedly a great matchup for Murray, whom the Raiders will have to ride to win this game. The Chargers rank 30th in rush DVOA, 31st in Pro Football Focus’ rush defense metric, and have allowed the most points per game to backs. Unfortunately, if the Oakland defense can’t slow down Rivers and the San Diego passing game, Murray may not have a chance to exploit this matchup.
Matchup to watch: Amari Cooper vs. Jason Verrett
Verrett immediately became one of the best corners in the league as a rookie last year, and has carried that over into his second season. Cooper is already among the best route runners in the league in his first year. With these two in the same division, this will be just the first of what will be plenty of great showdowns.
Injury report
Latavius Murray (shoulder): Probable
Antonio Gates (knee): Questionable
Keenan Allen (hip): Questionable
Melvin Gordon (ankle): Questionable
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Cowboys | 15th | 29th | 9th | 5th |
Giants | 13th | 24th | 12th | 28th |
The Playbook: A complete guide to Week 7 action around the NFL
Vegas lines
Giants -3.5
Over/under 45.5
Cowboys o/u 21
Giants o/u 25
Where were you when the great Christine Michael Takeover of 2015 began? Will we all be asking ourselves that one day? Maybe not with Matt Cassel under center. The Giants feel like one of the safer bets on the slate this week.
Player who could surprise: Rashad Jennings
No matter how you slice it, Jennings has been a disappointment this year, even when you consider the mundane expectations he carried in draft season. This can finally be a game in which he makes good for his fantasy owners. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most points per game to running backs and are below average in every metric that measures rush defense. If the Giants can get ahead, Jennings may be able to pound the Cowboys into submission.
Player who could disappoint: Jason Witten
By all accounts, this is a great matchup for a tight end. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most points per game to the position, and Witten himself burned them for 60 yards and a pair of scores in Week 1. That, of course, was with Tony Romo at the helm. I don’t trust anyone in the Dallas passing game with Cassel manning the controls. Given the depth at tight end, you can likely do better.
Matchup to watch: Odell Beckham vs. Cowboys secondary
The Cowboys are primarily a zone coverage defense, but they’re going to have to find someone who can stick with Beckham. If a defense gives a guy like him zones to attack, he’ll pick it apart.
Injury report
Dez Bryant (foot): Doubtful
Odell Beckham (hamstring): Questionable
Rueben Randle (hamstring): Probable
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Eagles | 14th | 2nd | 27th | 6th |
Panthers | 5th | 17th | 5th | 11th |
Vegas lines
Panthers -3.5
Over/under 46
Eagles o/u 21.5
Panthers o/u 25
Wind the calendar back two weeks and imagine someone told you that one of these teams would be undefeated when they met in Week 7. Not many would have thought the Panthers would be the perfect outfit. Vegas seems to still be disbelieving, if the line is to be taken at face value. There’s still widespread faith in the Philadelphia offense.
Player who could surprise: Jonathan Stewart
Stewart turned in four largely uninspiring efforts before his two-touchdown game a week ago, but even in that one he needed 20 carries to amass 78 yards. The Eagles run defense is for real, ranking second in DVOA and fifth by Pro Football Focus’ standards. Still, if the Panthers get ahead in this game, they’re going to trust Cam Newton and Stewart to bring home a victory. Stewart could finish as a top-20 back despite the brutal matchup.
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Player who could disappoint: Sam Bradford and Jordan Matthews
This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone who has been paying attention. The Panthers have one of the very best pass defenses in the league. The Eagles, meanwhile, have been at their best when running the ball effectively. Their three wins have come in the only three games they’ve established a presence on the ground. They’ll lean heavily on DeMarco Murray in this game, and that will come at the fantasy expense of Bradford and Matthews.
Matchup to watch: Greg Olsen vs. Connor Barwin
Barwin is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, allowing just one reception in 63 pass coverage snaps. He gets his greatest test of the season on Sunday night in Olsen, one of the premier tight ends who doubles as his team’s most dangerous weapon in the passing game.
Injury report
Nelson Agholor (ankle): Out
Kiko Alonso (knee): Out
Riley Cooper (knee): Questionable
Josh Huff (knee): Probable
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals
| vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE |
Ravens | 32nd | 8th | 31st | 3rd |
Cardinals | 8th | 6th | 19th | 1st |
Vegas lines
Cardinals -9
Over/under 48.5
Ravens o/u 20.5
Cardinals o/u 28.5
I’m not sure how high this line would have to be before I started worrying about the Cardinals, but -9 isn’t it. Carson Palmer is going to have a field day against a defense that has made Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick look like they could be opposing each other as Pro Bowl starters. Get your Cardinals active in this one.
Player who could surprise: Michael Floyd
Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown are understandably ranked higher than Floyd most everywhere this week, but the big receiver out of Notre Dame is just as liable to go off against Baltimore’s atrocious pass defense. Floyd was this close to scoring three touchdowns last week, though me managed to stay in bounds for just one. Still, he played a season-high 75% of the team’s snaps last week, and continues to inch back toward the standing he once had in this offense. Again, the Ravens aren’t going to be able to slow down Palmer on Monday night. Get all these Cardinals active.
Player who could disappoint: Steve Smith
If the Cardinals do what everyone expects them to, the volume should be there for Smith. He’s probably the only human alive who could shake off a broken back to catch seven passes for 137 yards and a touchdown, as he did a week ago. The fact remains, however, that he’s not at 100% and the Balitmore secondary features some great coverage players in Tyrann Mathieu, Patrick Peterson and Tony Jefferson. This could be a tougher week than it appears.
Matchup to watch: Steve Smith vs. Patrick Peterson
Even taking everything said above into account, any time two famously brash, skilled trash talkers like Smith and Peterson get together on the field, it’s going to be the best individual matchup of the game. You’ll wish the ESPN broadcast would devote a split screen to these two whenever the Ravens have the ball.
Injury report
The official injury report for Monday Night Football isn’t available until Sunday, but John Brown is the only player whose status could be in question. He missed Friday’s practice because of a hamstring injury.
