NFL DFS Week 11: Picks, Plays & Values
After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I am going on a new path for the daily fantasy games in 2021. I continue to make the projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see each week players with low salaries post difference-maker scores. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a shot at GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Top Tier: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($7,200/$8,400)
After a disastrous showing against the Broncos (232/2) with a season-low completion rate (48.7), Prescott quickly put away the Falcons (301/3) in Week 10 despite attempting only 31 passes. He is on pace for 4,864 combined yards with 42 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Half of his eight starts have resulted in 28.90 fantasy points or more. In addition, Prescott passed for over 400 yards twice with a floor of three scores in three-fourths of his starts.
The Chiefs improved against quarterbacks over the past five games (18.23 FPPG), coming over a poor four-game stretch (BAL – 346/3, LAC – 297/4, PHI – 434/2, BUF – 374/4). Kansas City has allowed 78 points over its last five matchups (as opposed to 135 points allowed from Weeks 2-5).
Both teams should score in this matchup, inviting a high number of passes for Prescott. He is projected for 350 combined yards with three touchdowns. SI Sportsbook posted an over/under of 56.5 for the Cowboys/Chiefs matchup.
More: Patrick Mahomes – 29.01 fantasy points
Value: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($5,100/$7,500)
The Panthers paid Newton to be their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season, and he should start on Sunday. Last week, Carolina had him on the field for only nine plays, but he still scored twice (one rushing and one passing). Newton finished as the 20th scoring quarterback in Week 10, outscoring Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Colt McCoy.
Washington lost its top pass rusher (DE Chase Young) to a torn ACL against Tampa Bay, which improves the passing window for the Panthers’ passing game. Washington already has the worst defense in the league against quarterbacks (27.41 FPPG). Most of their failure came from Weeks 2-5 (31.95, 42.75, 32.15, and 28.95 fantasy points). Quarterbacks gain 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 24 touchdowns over nine contests. Washington also shows some risk defending rushing quarterbacks (36/219/2 – 6.1 yards per rush).
The Panthers’ quarterbacks have run the ball 45 times this year, leading to 217 yards and six touchdowns. Newton should run the ball eight to 10 times with a reasonable chance of scoring a rushing touchdown. Christian McCaffrey played like the beast he is in Week 10 (161 scrimmage yards and 10 catches) while only being on the field for 59 percent of plays run by Carolina. With a minimum of 20.00 fantasy points, Newton will be well worth his investment.
More: Tua Tagovailoa – 21.37 fantasy points
Running Back
Top Tier: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($7,800/$9,000)
Last week was a missed opportunity for Chubb and his fantasy owners, with Chubb on the COVID-19 list. D’Ernest Johnson finished with 88 percent of the running back snaps against the Patriots (no other Browns back has been on the field for over 69 percent of their plays in any other week). He gained 157 yards on 26 touches. Chubb flashed in Week 9 (163 combined yards with two touchdowns and two catches) despite touching the ball 18 times vs. the Bengals. On the year, he’s gaining 6.0 yards per rush while being on pace for 1,580 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 16 catches over 14 games. Chubb should return to the starting role against the Lions.
Photo credit: Jeff Lange / USA TODAY Network
Detroit sits 29th defending running backs (28.89 FPPG), with backs scoring 16 touchdowns. Their biggest failures came in Week 2 (GB – 149 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches), Week 4 (194 combined yards with three touchdowns and two catches), Week 6 (233 combined yards with two touchdowns and eight catches) and Week 8 (PHI – 39/165/4).
The Browns’ running backs lead the NFL in rushing yards (1,429) and rushing touchdowns (15) while gaining 5.4 yards per carry. They also have 54 catches for 478 yards and two more scores. Chubb looks poised to score multiple times with over 100 yards rushing.
More: Christian McCaffrey – 26.42 fantasy points
Value: A.J. Dillon, Green Bay ($6,200/$7,000)
A knee injury to Aaron Jones gives Dillon an elite opportuning over the next couple of weeks. His stock has been rising over his last three weeks (296 combined yards with two touchdowns and six catches) while touching the ball 17 times per game. His power back build points to 25-plus touches against the Vikings. In addition, Dillon played better than expected in the passing game (16/196/1), which adds to his floor in PPR formats.
Minnesota tends to be up and down defending running backs (22nd in fantasy points allowed per game – 24.88). Runners gain 4.7 yards per carry with some success in the passing game (42/286/3).
I view Dillon as a free square in the daily games in Week 11. He should find a way to score over 25.00 fantasy points.
More: James Conner – 22.62 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($6,800/$7,500)
Over Russell Wilson’s last two-and-a-half games, he’s passed for only 462 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Metcalf caught only three of his eight targets for 26 yards against the Packers. He has fewer than 10 targets in his past seven starts while gaining over 100 yards in only one contest (6/107/1) in 2021. Last year, Metcalf struggled in both games against the Cardinals (2/23 and 3/46/1 on 10 combined targets).
Arizona ranks 13th defending wide receivers (118/1,378//12). Their biggest struggles came against the Vikings' (17/195/3) and Rams' (16/208/2) wideouts.
A significant part of Seattle’s struggles has been the defense. They can’t get offenses off the field. This combination should force the Seahawks to throw as they should be trailing in many games. The key for Metcalf in this matchup would be Kyler Murray starting for the Cardinals. If not, both teams may be content slowing down the game. I expect Wilson to bounce back in a big way, pointing to Metcalf being part of his rebound.
More: Mike Evans – 26.57 fantasy points
Value: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,200/$6,500)
Williams hasn’t been a big fantasy hit in over a month. His season started with four electric games (8/82/1, 7/91/1, 7/122/2, and 8/165/2) over the first five weeks. Since then, he left a hole in fantasy starting lineups (2/27, 2/19, 2/58, and 4/33) on a combined 21 targets. The Chargers had him on the field for 93.8% of their plays over the past three contests.
Pittsburgh struggled with wide receivers over the first five games (BUF – 23/221/1, LV – 14/224/1, CIN – 10/134/3, GB – 13/166/2, and DEN – 16/234/2). Their pass defense improved over the past month, but it was helped by a favorable schedule (SEA, CLE, CHI, and DET). The Steelers have the appearance of having a top defense, but they do have risk against the run, and a better quarterback will expose their weakness in the secondary.
Williams can be a matchup problem, and he has the size to win jump balls at the goal line. In addition, his salary has slid enough where Williams offers possible upside for his price point.
More: Tee Higgins – 15.17 fantasy points
Tight End
Top Tier: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,100/$7,300)
Slowly but surely, Kelce is opening up a fantasy edge again at tight end. Over the past two games, he caught 13 of his 18 targets for 187 yards and a score. However, the Chiefs did a much better job last week getting him easy catches over the short areas of the field, leading to a bump in his yards per catch (11.9 – his highest level since Week 2). His floor remains high, but Kelce still hasn’t scored over 26.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues this season.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas struggled against tight ends in Week 1 (TB – 8/90/2) and Week 3 (PHI – 6/119/1). They haven’t allowed a tight end score over their last six games. Over this span, no team scored over 15.00 fantasy points from the tight end position.
A fast-paced game would be a big win for Kelce’s opportunity and scoring upside. However, he needs to pair a touchdown with over 100 yards receiving to fill his salary bucket.
More: Mike Gesicki – 14.95 fantasy points
Value: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys ($4,600/$6,000)
Schultz came up empty in Week 10 (1/14) due to a couple of quick rushing scores after a pair of turnovers by Atlanta. Over the first six games, the Cowboys’ tight ends were active in the passing game (9/65, 5/55, 8/94/2, 7/76/2, 6/79, and 6/80/1), leading to Schultz shining over a four-game stretch (23/296/3 on 29 targets). However, he has been a much more challenging ride over the last three games (7/79 on 14 targets).
Kansas City played well vs. tight ends over the last two weeks (GB – 3/15 and LV – 4/24). They allowed six touchdowns over a five-game stretch midseason while offering disastrous downside in three matchups (CLE – 7/120, PHI – 11/116/1, and BUF – 4/118/1).
An up-tempo game bodes well for the success of Schultz. Unfortunately, I lost on him last week, but a drop in salary and better matchup should lead to a playable game in the daily space.
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