NFL DFS Week 14 Perfect Million-Dollar Lineup Guide
Living in the daily game world for any sport requires a lot of work with little reward for the casual player, unless the stars align for one magical day. Most daily owners need to decide whether to be a grinder or a swing-for-the-fences player. One path keeps you alive for more days of action with the idea of building your bankroll slowly. The other has a donation feel while offering a pot of gold at the end of a distanct rainbow.
Since the daily sites started offering the million-dollar overall prize, I’ve been trying to find my get-out-of-jail-free card. The goal is to handicap the main football slate on Sunday and invest in the best possible combination of foundation players. If my key players succeed, I will be in the hunt with many teams. Each football season, I expect to be in the mix in four or five weeks.
All players listed are for the main slate of games on Sunday.
Quarterback Stacks
Heading into 2021, the Bills appeared to be a slam dunk to win the AFC East with an over/under of 11 wins. However, Buffalo already has three losses at home (PIT, IND, NE), leading to them slipping to second in their division. In addition, they gave away a possible win in Week 6 to the Titans and somehow lost to a poor Jaguars team in Week 9. Another loss to Tampa would put the Bills on the brink of a disastrous season (at least based on their expectations). Buffalo will be heavily favored in their final three home games (CAR, ATL, NYJ), so a postseason ticket should be a given. Their only other roadblock comes in Week 16 against the Patriots.
I highlighted Allen’s matchup vs. the Bucs in my DFS report on Wednesday. Tom Brady is 32-3 in his career against Buffalo with the Patriots. He’ll try to improve his record in his first start vs. the Bills with Tampa Bay. Allen (2-4 vs. NE, with both wins coming in 2020) has never beaten Brady in a head-to-head matchup.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
As the calendar pushes toward Christmas, fantasy owners have lost faith in Mahomes based on his subpar play in five games (11.80, 17.75, 12.30, 12.10, 15.40 fantasy points) over the last six weeks. Despite his regression, the Chiefs have won five straight games thanks to a significant improvement in this defense (17, 7, 14, 9, 9 points allowed). Four of those wins came at home.
Mahomes only has 39 completions over 20 yards through 12 starts (3.25 per contest) compared to 67 in 2020 over 15 games (4.47 per week). He needs one more interception to set a career-high while remaining well below his previous success in yards per passing attempt (8.4 over 46 games – 7.1 in 2021). The Chiefs can’t find a viable WR2 to complement Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Defenses have taken away Hill in the deep passing game (11.1 yards per catch – 15.6 over his previous 58 games) and Kelce’s scoring ability in the red zone (two touchdowns over the past 10 games).
The Raiders ranks 22nd defending quarterbacks (21.48 FPPG), with a disaster showing vs. Kansas City in Week 10 (422/5). In addition, Las Vegas has risk against tight ends (73/813/8), and offenses have focused more on their running backs in the passing game against them over the past six weeks (6/43/1, 5/15, 10/107/1, 4/25, 10/56, and 7/35/1). The Raiders allow only 6.6 yards per pass attempt, with wideouts gaining only 10.7 yards per catch.
In the season-long games, there is no way I sit Mahomes. I don’t micromanage star players. Either he plays well, or I lose. I’m not going to turn a second-tier quarterback into a star in Week 14. As for the daily games, Mahomes is highly priced -- and his recent play should make him a lower percentage own. I like him as an against-the-grain play, but I prefer a single stack with Hill or Kelce.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After 12 games, Brady leads the NFL in passing yards (3,771 – 314 per game) and touchdowns (34). His play has been exceptional at home (1,584 passing yards and 20 touchdowns) over five matchups. Brady scored over 30.00 fantasy points in six contests (32.95, 33.40, 33.00, 41.85, 31.95, 33.40) thanks to a floor of four touchdowns in each of those games.
Buffalo leads the NFL in quarterback defense (12.95 FPPG). Before last week (New England only attempted three passes due to heavy winds), no team scored over 18.50 fantasy points over the previous six games. Only two teams (WAS – 233/3 and KC – 333/2) scored over 20.00 fantasy points (25.70 and 24.70). The Bills allow only 5.7 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing eight touchdowns. Wide receivers have a low catch rate (56.9) while gaining only 10.0 yards per catch. The loss of top CB Tre’Davious White does help the Bucs’ wide receivers.
With Rob Gronkowski back on the field, Brady has a fourth strong receiving option behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette. Over the past three games, Gronkowski has had 17 catches for 252 yards and two touchdowns on 25 targets. He also has a stellar resume against the Bills (69/1,070/12) over 15 games. SI Sportsbook projects a high-scoring game (over/under of 53.3), pointing to plenty of balls in the air. Brady has a high floor, with the tools in the passing game to post an impact game if Buffalo forces the issue on the scoreboard.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson is on pace for a career-high in passing yards (4,167) while remaining productive in rushing yards (131/762). His only two rushing touchdowns came in Week 2 vs. the Chiefs. He has already thrown the most interceptions in his career (13), and Jackson has one passing touchdown in nine of his 11 starts while being sacked 37 times. His best two games (504/4 and 386/3) came at home. He has yet to score over 23.50 fantasy points in his five road starts. The Browns held Jackson to 233 combined yards and one score in Week 12.
Cleveland ranks eighth defending quarterbacks (20.72 FPPG), but they have struggled in four matchups (36.65, 46.80, 28.05, 30.15 fantasy points). The Browns’ secondary will give up touchdowns to tight ends (7), and wide receivers have beaten them in three matchups (KC – 16/231/1, LAC – 18/287/2, ARI – 16/225/4).
The Ravens are a slight underdog (+2.5) on the road, but they have more weapons offensively than Cleveland at this point of the year. Baltimore needs to get Mark Andrews back on track after dropping a game-winning two-point conversion attempt against the Steelers in Week 13. Marquise Brown hasn’t scored since Week 7 despite remaining active in the passing game over their last four games (12, 13, 10, 7 targets). Jackson probably needs three touchdowns to pay off in the daily games based on his salary. With both teams expected to run the ball a high percentage of time, his best path to success will come with his legs.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Other than his Week 10 matchup with the Vikings (217/1), Herbert has been impressive in four of his previous five games (370/4, 472/3, 339/2, 323/3). However, interceptions (7) have been a problem over the last six weeks. His biggest question heading into Week 14 is the health of his wideouts after Keenan Allen tested positive for COVID-19. He has been vaccinated, so there is a chance that Allen plays on Sunday. Mike Williams also landed on the COVID-19 list due to close contact. Herbert climbed to second in quarterback scoring (26.53 FPPG). He’s scored over 30.00 fantasy points in four games (33.65, 46.80, 35.20, and 39.10).
The Giants are about league average against quarterbacks (20.98 FPPG). They allowed less than 18.00 fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of their past six matchups. Over this span, no offense gained over 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Dallas (330/3), Washington (342/2) and Carolina (262/4) had the most success.
New York may be wheeling out a third-string quarterback, and the wide receiving corps remains banged up. In addition, the Giants’ lack of scoring (32 points over the last three games) points to fewer chances for Herbert in the passing game. The first step when deciding on a Chargers passing stack is the health of their wide receivers.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott landed in the value column when reviewing the top options for the daily games in Week 14.
Foundation Players
On the main slate on Sunday for Week 14, multiple top-tier running backs have questionable tags next to their names.
On Wednesday, Alvin Kamara turned in a full practice while Mark Ingram landed on the Covid-19 list. New Orleans will feature the run against the Jets (last in the NFL defending running backs – 35.81 FPPG), but Taysom Hill will steal plenty of carries and potential goal-line scores. Kamara’s salary remains high, so I’d like to see him in game action before paying full price to roster him in the daily games.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler came out of last week’s matchup with multiple minor injuries while being listed as limited in practice with an ankle issue. A big part of his output comes in the passing game (56/518/7). He scored 11 of his 15 touchdowns at home – where he will be this week -- while averaging 5.3 yards per rush and 27.62 fantasy points. On the road, Ekeler gains 3.6 yards per carry while scoring only 16.40 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
The Giants sit 26th in the league vs. running backs (26.36 FPPG). Their biggest failures came in Week 5 (DAL – 215 combined yards with two scores and six catches) and Week 9 (LV – 241 combined yards with 16 catches). New York allows 4.5 yards per rush with backs being active in the passing game (73/576/2).
If Ekeler is cleared to play, he has the resume at home to shine. However, his high salary does require over 30.00 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
When running this week’s projections, Jacobs stood out as a viable mid-tier running back based on an expected bump in workload with Kenyan Drake out for the season. In addition, Jalen Richard remains on the Covid-19 list, which would boost Jacobs's opportunity in the passing game. Peyton Barber moves to RB2 for the Raiders while having an undetermined role coming into Week 14.
Here’s a look at Jacobs’s outlook against Kansas City.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Even with Melvin Gordon expected back this week, Williams will draw plenty of attention from fantasy owners in the daily space. In a full ride against the Chiefs, he gained 178 combined yards with one touchdown and six catches. The Broncos had Williams on the field for 78% of their snaps while also out-snapping Gordon over the two previous games (33-25 and 36-26). After 12 games in a split role, Williams gained 939 yards with four touchdowns and 33 catches.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Detroit ranks 29th defending running backs (26.93 FPPG) despite playing better over their last four matchups (19.60, 25.20, 11.30, and 26.70 fantasy points). Earlier in the season, the Lions allowed 30.00 fantasy points or more to running backs in five contests (45.90, 38.30, 30.00, 43.30, and 38.40).
SI Sportsbook has Denver favored by 9.5 points with a low over/under (42). The Broncos played better against the pass over the last six weeks (199/1, 270/1, 232/2, 178/2, 303/2, and 184/0), giving their offense an excellent chance to control the clock with the run game. Denver should lean on Williams more over their last five games. This week, I could see another 100 yards with a touchdown and a floor of four catches.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Over four games before last week (4/51), Diggs worked his way back up the wide receiver standings after catching 25 of his 36 targets for 344 yards and four touchdowns. With five weeks left in the season, he is on pace for 101 catches for 1,272 yards and 10 touchdowns. His only impact game (8/162/1) came in Week 10 vs. the Jets.
Tampa worked its way 18th defending wide receivers (164/204/13) after getting lit by wideouts over the first three weeks (DAL – 27/303/3, ATL – 17/277/3, LAR – 19/291/3). Part of their progression has come from a favorable pass schedule over their last nine games (NE, MIA, PHI, CHI, NO, WAS, NYG, IND, and ATL). Four wide receivers (Amari Cooper – 13/139/2, CeeDee Lamb – 7/104/1, DeSean Jackson – 3/120/1, Russell Gage (11/130) gained over 100 yards receiving. Cooper Kupp (9/96/2) had the only other impact showing.
A possible shootout gives Diggs an excellent chance to score more than 30.00 fantasy points. He should work the short areas of the field to help move the chains while also being a top-two target for Josh Allen in the end zone.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
I highlighted both players in my DFS report on Wednesday.
Value
Odell Beckham Jr., Los Angeles Rams
Beckham has nine catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets in his three games with the Rams. His catch rate in 2021 remains at 50%. However, he looks to be having fun again, and the Rams can get him some easy catches. Beckham will develop better timing with Matthew Stafford with more reps in his new offense. For me, the light looked to click back on against the Jaguars despite only having two catches for 28 yards and a touchdown. Los Angeles will need to throw to beat the Cardinals in what looks like a high-scoring affair on Monday night. Beckham isn’t on the main slate on Sunday, but he was worth mentioning for those daily owners looking for a value play on Monday night.
Jalen Guyton, Los Angeles Chargers
The COVID-19 concerns for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this weekend give Guyton a chance at a starting opportunity against the Giants. He showed big-play ability in 2020 (28/511/3), but his game didn’t pop this year until Week 13 (4/90/1). Over the previous 11 weeks, Guyton only caught half of his 28 targets for 199 yards with no touchdowns. The Chargers have had him on the field for 56% of their plays this season as their WR3. He is only in play if Allen or Williams miss this week’s game.
Here’s my perfect line for Week 14:
Locking in on Kelce at tight end does come with a price. By starting him, it may have cost me three upgrades at different positions.
I wanted to start Mike Evans vs. Cole Beasley with the Denver defense, but I couldn’t find a viable low-value flex. I settled on Marvin Jones Jr. due to Tennessee having the worst defense in the league against wideouts and Jones having some big games on his NFL resume.
Julio Jones looked to be a viable shot at wide receiver, but I didn’t want to use him if he didn’t return as expected. Courtland Sutton has been missing in action for multiple weeks. However, his snap count remains high, giving him a chance to pay off against the Lions.
The double-stack of Cowboys’ receiver does bring a risk/reward feel. Amari Cooper expects to return to the starting lineup, but I tend to feel his value is better at home. Going bare with Dak Prescott would be viable if he can snipe a rushing score while spreading the ball around.
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