NFL DFS Week 16: Picks, Plays and Values
After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I will go on a new path for the daily games in 2021. I continue to make the stat projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see players with low salaries post difference-maker scores each week. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a short at GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Top Tier: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($6,500/$7,400)
The road hasn’t treated Prescott well over his last four contests (7.80, 14.90, 14.05, 13.85 fantasy points), leading to 221 passing yards per game with three total touchdowns and five interceptions. However, his best two games (403/3 and 445/3) did come away from home earlier this season. Prescott has 17 touchdowns and two interceptions in six matchups in Dallas while averaging 26.45 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. In his first contest against Washington, he passed for 211 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Prescott hasn’t been a factor in the run game (39/105/1) for most of the season.
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Washington continues to have the worst defense in the league against quarterbacks (25.58 FPPG). Five opponents scored over 30 fantasy points (31.95, 42.75, 32.15, 32.65, 32.60). Running quarterbacks have had success on the ground (65/358/5). Washington allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt, with most of their failure coming over five matchups from Weeks 3-7 (BUF – 387/5, ATL – 303/4, NO – 305/4, KC – 428/2, GB – 291/3).
Dallas won its past three games on the road, inviting a dominating offensive performance at home in Week 16. Prescott projects to pass for 292 yards with three touchdowns. His ceiling is tied to Washington’s ability to solve the Cowboys’ defense.
More: Matthew Stafford – 27.89 fantasy points
Value: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,400/$7,700)
Over his past two starts at home, Hurts has scored 64.85 fantasy points. The Eagles turned to the run game in Week 8, leading to seven straight impressive outputs (46/236/4, 39/176/2, 40/214, 50/242/3, 33/208/1, 341/185/1, 41/238/2). Over this span, Hurts rushed the ball 64 times for 372 yards and five touchdowns over six games (he missed Week 13 with an ankle issue). In eight of his 14 matchups, Philly passed for fewer than 200 yards while delivering 16 passing touchdowns. The Giants held Hurts to 206 combined yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions in Week 12.
New York sits 19th defending quarterbacks (20.95 FPPG). They allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt, with 26 quarterback touchdowns. The Giants have kept quarterbacks in check in the run game (48/205/2).
Besides its previous matchup against New York (seven points scored), Philly has been a much better offense (44, 24, 30, 40, 33, 27 points) over the past seven weeks. Hurts shouldn’t deliver an impact game passing the ball, so he’ll need to make the most of his running ability to pay off in the daily space.
More: Tayson Hill – 23.30 fantasy points
Running Back
Top Tier: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts ($8,800/$10,500)
The Patriots did their best to keep Taylor under wraps in Week 15, but a late game-closing 67-yard touchdown led to another great game (29/170/1). He scored in each of his past 11 starts (19 total touchdowns) while averaging 147 yards and 2.5 catches. The Colts' upped Taylor’s usage and opportunity over his last five matchups (23.8 touches and 81.6 percent of the running back snaps). Taylor needs 482 yards rushing to reach 2,000.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Despite ranking 11th against running backs (21.41 FPPG), runners gain 4.6 yards per carry with only five rushing scores. Additionally, the Cardinals have struggled in multiple games vs. running backs in the passing game (85/586/1). Seven running backs gained over 100 combined yards (Dalvin Cook – 148, James Robinson – 134, Darrell Henderson – 116, Aaron Jones – 110, Christian McCaffrey – 161, David Montgomery – 141, Craig Reynolds – 117).
Taylor is in full beast-mode, and he looks poised to extend his streak of impressive games. He brings explosiveness plus the ability to score multiple times. I have him penciled in for 141 yards with one score and two catches.
More: Cordarrelle Patterson – 25.20 fantasy points
Value: Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,100/$7,300)
After a successful season in 2020 (1,143 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 28 catches), Jones barely saw the field over the Bucs’ first 14 games (71/337/3 with three catches for 47 yards). However, an injury to Leonard Fournette (third-ranked running back in PPR leagues – 1,266 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 69 catches) creates a starting job for Jones with minimal competition for touches.
The Panthers have the fourth-best defense against running backs (19.84 FPPG). Carolina minimizes the damage against backs in the passing game (48/313/1). They allow 4.1 yards per rush, with runners scoring 12 rushing touchdowns.
Tampa Bay should rotate in a second running back on passing downs, leading to a lower ceiling than Fournette. Jones needs a touchdown and 100 yards rushing to fill his salary bucket. He looks priced to pay off, but Tom Brady also has a downgrade in receiving options in this matchup. I set his bar at 93 yards with one score and two catches.
More: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 20.77 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($9,100/$9,800)
Kupp is the gift the keeps on giving this holiday season. He remains the top-scoring wide receiver (26.47 FPPG), who holds more than a touchdown edge over the second-highest scoring wideout (Tyreek Hill – 20.19 FPPG). The only two players with more fantasy points in PPR leagues are Josh Allen (379.2) and Justin Herbert (372.4). Kupp has been impressive over his past three games (8/129/1, 13/123/1, 9/136/2). He now has six games with over 30 fantasy points. Kupp is on pace to catch 148 passes (one shy of the NFL record) for 1,973 yards (most receiving yards in league history) and 17 touchdowns.
The Vikings have the worst wide receiver defense (197/2,678/16) in the league, with disastrous results in four matchups (ARI – 17/277/3, DAL – 18/325/2, GB – 15/304/3, PIT – 23/266/1). In addition, eight wideouts gained over 100 yards. The only advantage for Minnesota's defense is that it has faced Matthew Stafford many times, and the Vikings will pressure the quarterback (44 sacks).
Kupp sure looks like a lock, and many fantasy titles hinge on him playing well. I have him projected for eight catches for 113 yards and one touchdown. SI Sportsbook has the Rams favored by three points with the highest over/under (49.5) of the week. If Minnesota plays well offensively, Kupp should add another exciting week to his 2021 resume.
More: Deebo Samuel – 23.94 fantasy points
Value: Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900/$7,000)
Over the first six weeks, Brown played well in four games (5/121/1, 7/63, 7/124/2, 9/93/1). He hasn’t seen the field since Week 6 due to an ankle issue and his three-game suspension. The Bucs’ wideouts have 233 catches for 2,912 yards and 22 touchdowns on 339 targets.
Carolina ranks sixth defending wide receivers (158/1,838/15), but its defense showed regression over the last three weeks (33, 29, 31 points allowed). Four receivers (Brandin Cooks – 9/112, Adam Thielen – 11/126/1, Terry McLaurin – 5/103/1, Jaylen Waddle – 9/137/1) have had big games against the Panthers.
With Chris Godwin out for the season and Mike Evans questionable to play on Sunday, Brown looks poised to be heavily involved in the passing game. My conservative projections point to five catches for 60 with a 50% chance of scoring.
More: Michael Pittman Jr. – 15.62 fantasy points
Tight End
Top Tier: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens ($7,000/$8,000)
The injury to Lamar Jackson over the past two games has led to Andrews becoming a stud in the Ravens’ passing game (11/115/1 and 10/136/2). Game score certainly helped his opportunity, but he did catch 87.5% of his targets over this span. Andrews already set career-highs in catches (85), receiving yards (1,026) and targets (122). His only other impact game (11/147/2) came at home in Week 5 against the Colts. Cincinnati held him to three catches for 48 yards earlier in the season.
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports
The Bengals continue to fade defending tight ends (76/872/6 – 24th). Over the past five weeks, three offenses have gained over 100 yards from their tight ends (LV – 8/135/1, SF – 13/151/1, DEN – 8/115).
Jackson is trending toward starting for Baltimore, which invites more runs and a faster clock. The key for Andrews in this game is for the Ravens to fall behind early. So let’s go with six catches for 76 yards and a 75% chance of scoring for him in Week 16.
More: Travis Kelce – 17.39 fantasy points
Value: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($5,800/$5,900)
The draft day excitement for Pitts drifted away over his last eight games (27/376 on 51 targets). However, he flashed over two contests (9/119/1 and 7/163) earlier in the season while settling into about a seven-target-a-week guy since Week 7. Over the last three weeks, Pitts has at least one catch over 20 yards, but touchdowns remain an issue (one score all year).
The Lions have allowed over 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues to tight ends over their last seven games, highlighted by failure in three games (6/115, 10/99/1, 9/92/1) on the year. Additionally, Detroit sits 18th in tight end defense (76/856/4).
Pitts has stud upside, but he only has double-digit targets in one matchup. However, his play appears to be trending upward, giving him a chance at five catches for 66 yards and his second score of the season.
More: Dallas Goedert – 12.98 fantasy points
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