NFL DFS Week 17: Picks, Plays and Values
After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I will go on a new path for the daily games in 2021. I continue to make the stat projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see players with low salaries post difference-maker scores each week. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a shot at the GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Top Tier: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($8,000/$8,800)
Twice over the past three weeks, Allen carried the Bills’ offense on the road, first against Tampa Bay (417/3) and then at New England (378/3). Last week's performance was more impressive, considering Buffalo played without two of its top four wide receivers. Over his last 31 games, Allen scored 870.9 fantasy points (28.09 per game – most in the NFL). When at his best, he finished with over 30 fantasy points in seven matchups, but only twice at home.
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The Falcons allow the second-most fantasy points (22.79 FPPG) to quarterbacks, with struggles in six games (PHI – 326/3, TB – 279/5, WAS – 333/3, MIA – 320/4, DAL – 316/3, TB – 367/4). In addition, Atlanta has an ineffective pass rush (17 sacks) while showing weakness against wideouts (207/2,435/18).
SI Sportsbook has the Bills favored by 14.5 points, pointing to a one-sided game with a slant toward the run. The downside comes from a matchup in January in Buffalo, where snow and cold are very much in the equation on Sunday. I have Allen projected for 313 combined yards with 3.5 touchdowns.
More: Tom Brady – 27.08 fantasy points
Value: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($6,700/$7,400)
After delivering two touchdowns or fewer in six of his previous seven contests, Prescott found his passing wings at home last week (351/4), even with an early exit due to a blowout. He has almost identical passing yards over his seven games at home (1,961) and on the road (1,967), but Prescott has 21 scores in Dallas and only nine away from home. He continues to rank lower (10th) in quarterback scoring than expected in 2021.
The Cardinals have the league's fifth-best quarterback defense (19.65 FPPG), with no opposing QB scoring over 28 fantasy points. They allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt, but quarterbacks have 28 passing touchdowns (14 over the past five weeks). Over this span, offenses only averaged 30 passes.
Dallas should succeed on the ground, but most of their scoring should come via the pass. The over/under for this matchup is 51.5, which is the highest on the board on Sunday. Prescott has an excellent chance at over 300 combined yards with a minimum of three scores.
More: Lamar Jackson – 23.63 fantasy points
Running Back
Top Tier: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts ($9,000/$10,000)
For some reason, the Colts bypassed Taylor in the passing game over the past three weeks (no catches on two targets). From Weeks 4-12, over nine games, he caught 28 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Despite his regression in this area, the Colts had him on the field for over 80% of their plays over the previous six matchups. He has gained 848 yards with 10 touchdowns and 13 catches over the last six weeks. In addition, Taylor has rushed for over 100 yards in nine different games. He needs 374 rushing yards to reach 2,000.
The Raiders held Denver to 18 yards rushing on 16 carries last week, despite having one of the weaker defenses in the league against running backs (27.84 FPPG – 30th). Backs have 19 touchdowns with 2,003 combined yards and 90 catches.
The Colts come into this week’s game with a massive question mark at quarterback if Carson Wentz isn’t cleared by Sunday from his COVID-19 issue. At the same time, Taylor could come down with the virus. However, if Wentz starts, I fully expect multiple touchdowns by Taylor with an explosive output in yards.
More: Nick Chubb – 24.16 fantasy points
Value: Ronald Jones, Tampa Buccaneers ($6,300/$7,000)
In his first start after the injury to Leonard Fournette, Tampa had Jones on the field for only 52% of its plays. He finished with 81 combined yards in a blowout game with one touchdown and two catches on 22 touches. In comparison, Ke’Shawn Vaughn saw the field for a season-high 24 plays (36%) while hitting on an explosive run (55-yard TD). The Bucs only gave him seven touches for the game (7/70/1).
The Jets remain the worst team in the league against running backs (33.71 FPPG). New York allows 4.5 yards per rush while being drilled by backs in touchdowns (27) and catches (93).
Jones has a great opportunity in Week 17, especially if the Bucs play from the lead. Tampa will rotate a second back, but Jones has a reasonable floor in catches while owning multi-touchdown upside. I set his bar at 105 yards with 1.5 scores and two catches.
More: D’Andre Swift – 23.14 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($9,500/$10,200)
Kupp has 132 catches for 1,734 yards and 14 touchdowns on 177 targets with two games left in the season. He needs 18 catches and 231 yards to set NFL single-season records in both categories (albeit in a 17-game season). If so, his season will go down as the best in NFL history at wide receiver. Over his previous 10 games, he averaged 9.5 catches for 121 yards and 0.9 touchdowns.
The Ravens played with a COVID-ridden defense in Week 16, leading to Joe Burrow dusting their secondary for 525 yards and four scores. They allowed 22 catches to wide receiver for 404 yards and four touchdowns. As a result, Baltimore fell to 28th defending wideouts (181/2,779/18).
Kupp’s success led to me looking back on the 2021 Rams' Outlook to see how far he outperformed my expectations. He has a high floor, and his matchup points to eight catches for 126 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.
More: Davante Adams – 27.91 fantasy points
Value: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys ($4,800/$5,800)
Since returning from the injured list, Gallup has 28 catches for 373 yards and one touchdown on 51 targets. He appeared to be on the uptick from Weeks 12-14 (5/106, 5/36/1, 5/60), but Dallas struggled to get him the ball over the past two matchups (3/32 and 2/53).
The Cardinals have struggled over the last three games against wideouts (LAR – 21/258/3, DET – 17/194/2, IND – 14/170/2), pushing them to 27th in wide receiver defense (191/2,271/20). Only two wideouts gained over 100 yards (Tyler Lockett – 4/115 and Cooper Kupp – 13/123/1) against Arizona.
Gallup looks poised to break free for a long scoring play while being a reasonable hookup for Dak Prescott. If Arizona puts up a fight on the scoreboard, his payoff should be at least five catches for 65 yards with a score.
More: Jaylen Waddle – 22.72 fantasy points
Tight End
Top Tier: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens ($7,400/$8,700)
Over the last three weeks, Andrews has posted three impact games (11/115/1, 10/136/2, 8/125/1). As a result, he has passed Travis Kelce as the top fantasy tight end, a title Kelce has held from 2018-20. The knock on Andrews in Week 17 could be the return of Lamar Jackson. Andrews had the best run of his career with Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson starting at quarterback. For the season, he has already set career highs in catches (93), receiving yards (1,187) and targets (132).
The Rams are just above the league average defending tight ends (78/777/4 – 14th). However, Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a score to a tight end over the past five weeks. The Bucs (9/101) and Texans (8/94/1) had the most success.
Game score is critical for Andrews to add another exciting chapter to the end of his 2021 season. He brings a hot hand to Week 17, but his salary has jumped dramatically. Andrews projects to catch six passes for 77 yards with a 60% chance of scoring.
More: Travis Kelce – 20.70 fantasy points
Value: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots ($4,200/$5,700)
Despite a great game in Week 15 (6/77/2), Henry had been a weak link in fantasy lineups in four (2/25, 2/16, 0/0, 1/9) of his previous five games. He has set a career high in touchdowns (9), but the Patriots only look his way 4.25 times per week.
Jacksonville sits 15th defending tight ends (75/814/5) while showing the most risk in four (9/64/1, 5/95/2, 4/55/1, 14/182) of their first six matchups.
New England will look to run the ball early and often against the Jaguars based on them being favored by 15.5 points by the SI Sportsbook. However, Henry remains a play-action scoring threat at the goal line. He only needs a 5/50/1 type of day to fill his salary bucket.
More: Dawson Knox – 15.10 fantasy points
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