Fantasy Baseball: Plan Your Free-Agent Spending Strategy
One thing that has bothered me about fantasy baseball is the number of teams that mismanage their free-agent spending and go broke by midsummer. I can’t understand it. Most top managers will never run out of money. I don’t know if it is a lack of a game plan, or they panic over a free agent that paints them in a corner.
On the other side of the fence, I also see too many owners that never spend enough money. Every team has different needs, which creates a broad window to make some aggressive moves.
First, I want to explain free-agent bidding and give you a game plan for the season. In the high-stakes non-trading leagues, they use $1,000 worth of free-agent dollars to pick up players each year, with every team having the same budget. When you are out of money, you are out of moves.
Many home leagues use a $100 budget, but they may allow zero bids to help teams that run out of free-agent dollars.
There are about 26 weeks in the baseball season. A fantasy manager needs to gauge the free-agent market weekly and decide what to bid on each free agent. There will be a wide range of prices for the same player in high-stakes leagues. The most challenging thing is pinpointing a reasonable price to secure the player you want without overspending too much. Coming up with a bid comes from feel, player news, team needs, experience or even knowing your competition.
A fantasy manager could be in two leagues and want the same player in both leagues. On one team, I need to start the player. On the other roster, I want to add him to my bench. The team in need makes an aggressive bid; the other team makes a token bid.
If I have a problem, I need to make moves. I can’t take the free-agent money with me, but I want to leave enough of my budget to manage for the whole season. The money doesn’t do me much good in August if I’m out of contention.
If I work backward from week 26, I can estimate how much money I might need to make moves for the last week of the season.
Going into Week 26, I would like to have more than $10. I probably won’t need to make 10 moves (each pickup has a $1 minimum), but I might want to bid a couple of dollars to ensure I get the players I want.
A sharp owner can manage his team with $40 to $60 in free-agent spending with a month to go. It leaves them with enough money to make an aggressive bid or two. With about $20 left in free-agent money, I don’t leave myself much room for error. Another team that is in contention might be able to block me from a couple of pickups with minimum overbids.
With two months to go in the season, I want to have $100 to $200 left in the free-agency budget.
Of course, if my team has been relatively healthy all year, I don’t have to spend my money. But, conversely, I’m bidding aggressively and getting players I want early if my team has issues.
Filling holes
During the season, I will have times when my team needs help. If I have problems early in the season, I will have the best opportunity to fix them. Pitchers come out of nowhere, and players get jobs after getting called up from the minors.
I might not give a hot player a second look in April if I like my current group of players. Unfortunately, many times it takes a couple of months for players to find their rhythm. When that happens, I have fewer options in the free-agent pool to replace someone who may be struggling.
Every week, a player or two gets hot and is worth a shot as a short-term cover. Many times these hot players will fizzle out the following week. However, sometimes players play well and keep their job for an extended period. These players fall into the buy-and-hold category.
When deciding to bid on hot players, I must consider their history when placing my bids. For example, if a 32-year-old part-time player suddenly gets more playing time, I must look at his past resume when deciding his future fantasy value. Is he going to turn into a stud at age 32? It’s possible, but most likely, that player isn’t worth a huge bid.
Each player is different. Every situation is different. One week I have a second baseman go on the injured list; I only see one quality fill-in – in which case I may need to make a substantial bid. The same thing happens another week, except two other teams have similar problems. My equal bid might not win the player that week. When more eyes look in the same area of the player pool, I know the price is going up.
I might not know much about the other drafters in my league early in the season. I should get a feel for who is sharp at the draft table, but I won’t have enough information to evaluate their free-agent bidding style accurately. The main thing I’m looking for is someone who is on the same page as I am when viewing the possible free agents. If I feel that someone is in the market for similar players, I know they will be onto some players I want on the waiver wire.
When the first couple of bidding periods run, I should be able to get a feel for some of the managers in my league. Are they holding their money? Are some teams extremely aggressive? Is anyone picking up players who won’t have any value for a month? The more I play, the better I should be at knowing the styles of my competition.
Once I have a feel for my league, I should have a better idea of when I need to make an aggressive move for a player. All it takes is one player being extremely aggressive to throw a player’s free-agent value out the window. If someone does this, I know they won’t have much bidding ammo as the season goes on. Every team has the chance to make a few big moves. However, if I make a significant investment, I must understand why I’m doing it. A panic move can be deadly for my fantasy team.
A couple of years ago, I made 53 moves on one high-stakes team for the year, but I overspent by $773 on those pickups. I could have had all my players for $227 or about $5 per player. Some moves were me being aggressive, others were me panicking, and a few were me misreading their market value. Many teams held their money in this league, leading to a depressed market for free agents.
Each week, I can see where I overspent on some players. I need to adjust my thought process on bids for specific players when I see this. For example, if I’ve been placing bids for a couple of buy-and-hold double starters and noticed I’m bidding unopposed, I might need to lower my spending. But, on the other hand, if I’m bidding something in the $30 range with runner-up bids just below my total, I might need to raise my bid on the next player that fits that profile over the next couple of weeks.
As for the managers who hold their money and never end up spending it, I suggest they reevaluate their game plan. Some managers don’t have a lot of time and don’t like to micromanage their teams, but they need to stay on top of the free-agent pool early in the year. Your free-agent budget won’t help you when you are out of contention late in the season. The idea is to service your team’s needs to stay in the hunt after the All-Star break.
Baseball is a marathon. I need to keep grinding. Sometimes teams that look like runaway winners have late-season problems. If I don’t play hard all season, I might miss on a winning opportunity.
Over the first half of the year, there are more buying opportunities. I also have more competition for players, but I must spend if my team has issues. If my team is underachieving, there isn't much I can do. I try to be patient and hope the slow starters turn it around.
If I have no significant problems, it is nice to have the most money over the second half of the year. I see way too many times a team having a lot of free agent money in August and have no chance of winning. Everyone has a different idea about how to play, and they put up the entry fee.
When preparing for this upcoming fantasy season, I suggest you consider how you spent your free-agent money in the past. If you run out of free-agent dollars in August or early September, I would make some adjustments to ensure that you have enough funds to last all season.
As bad as I think I need someone, I must look at the results of having no money. A dollar player can turn into a solid pick-up just as fast as your $400 supposed superstar can be a flash in the pan.
Everyone’s goal is to win, and I decrease my chances when I run out of free-agent dollars. So when I’m hot for a player on the waiver wire, I have to take a deep breath when placing my free-agent bids. I must make sure that I’m not running up the price of the player I want in my mind. Try to be a week early, and it will save you tons of free-agent capital.
If I feel the need to spend over $400 on the next Juan Soto or Bo Bichette, I need to do a little more homework in the offseason to make sure I own this player on draft day. If I find myself out of contention in midsummer with a boatload of free-agent cash, I didn’t roll up my sleeves and get my hands dirty when I was still in the game.
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