Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott Lose Fantasy Value with Offseason Departures
The NFL Free agency frenzy period is nearly in the books, and we now have a clearer picture of how all 32 rosters are going to look heading into the NFL draft. I’ve already examined the free-agent winners and losers, but we also have to take a look at how player movement has impacted the value of players who didn’t change teams in a virtual domino effect of sorts. I already covered the winners, so now let’s discuss the players whose fantasy appeal has declined on some level as a result of roster moves.
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Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes has been one of the best (if not the best) quarterbacks in fantasy football for much of his career, but losing Tyreek Hill hurts his value. Over the last two seasons, 27% of his fantasy points from pass completions went to the speedy wideout. The team did add JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling, but neither has the same skill set as Hill. I’ve moved Mahomes out of my top-five quarterbacks for 2022.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Much like Mahomes, Rodgers lost his top option in the passing game when the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. The playmaking wideout made up for 32.5% of Rodgers’s fantasy points from pass completions since 2020, and the Packers have done nothing yet to help fill his void. Green Bay will do some work in free agency and the NFL draft, but Rodgers will still fall down into the low-end QB1 range.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The loss of Amari Cooper could have a negative impact on Prescott’s value next year. In 44 regular-season games with Cooper, he averaged 297.4 passing yards, had a 2-to-0.6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 103. In his 41 regular-season games without Cooper, Prescott averaged 219.5 passing yards, with a TD-INT ratio of 1.3-to-0.6 per game and a passer rating of 95. That’s a troublesome trend.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Lance’s stock is in a state of limbo from a fantasy perspective, as the Niners haven’t found a trade partner for Jimmy Garoppolo. Furthermore, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has said there’s a “scenario” where Garoppolo is still on the team’s roster in 2022. That would mean a potential quarterback competition in camp and the chance that Lance’s fantasy impact might be delayed another season. Monitor this situation, fantasy fans.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Gibson’s stock looked to be on the rise after reports suggested that J.D. McKissic had signed with the Buffalo Bills. That scenario would have meant more targets out of the backfield for Gibson. However, McKissic decided against going to the Bills and instead re-signed with the Commanders for two more years. McKissic, who is second among running backs in targets in the last two seasons, will continue to limit Gibson’s stock.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
On the flip side of the McKissic situation is Singletary, whose value is in question just based on the fact that the Bills wanted to sign McKissic. Singletary, who was a fantasy star down the stretch last season, by no means has a death grip on some sort of featured role in Buffalo. In fact, many draft experts have projected them to take Iowa State running back Breece Hall with their first-round pick in the upcoming draft.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins
Gaskin, who was selected as a flex starter in most 2021 fantasy drafts, might be at the point of being undraftable right now. The Dolphins added two running backs, Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds, who figure to be No. 1 and No. 2 on the team’s depth chart to open next season. Mostert hasn’t been durable in recent seasons, but Gaskin would need some sort of injury to have any kind of value from a fantasy standpoint.
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DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf has been a fantasy star in the last two seasons, scoring 22 touchdowns while averaging around 15 points per game. That might be his ceiling in 2022, however, as the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos. That leaves Drew Lock, a bust in Denver, as the current favorite to start for the Seahawks. Even if the team pulls off a trade for Baker Mayfield, both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will lose fantasy draft appeal.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Waddle was a fantasy beast in his rookie season, catching 104 passes on 140 targets as the top option in the offense for Tua Tagovailoa. He’ll be hard pressed to hit either of those marks next season, however, as the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill. He’s going to command 150-plus targets, and Miami also has Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker (unless he’s traded) and Cedrick Wilson. Waddle is now a low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout.
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
Knox was a nice breakout player last season, scoring nine touchdowns and finishing as the No. 10 tight end based on fantasy points. The Bills have added Jamison Crowder and O.J. Howard, however, which could mean a decline in his 11.4% target share from 2021. Knox was also one of the most targeted tight ends in the red zone (18), and the 6-foot-6, 251-pound Howard could put a dent into that total. Knox is now a low TE1.
More Betting, Fantasy and NFL
• Free Agent Winners
• Free Agent Losers
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• Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
• Opening Lines: Final Four
• Fantasy Impact: Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
