NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. Highlight First-Round Wide Receivers

Some big names here, but majority of first-round WRs over the last 10 years have been disappointing.

The wide receiver position has gained a lot of value in the world of fantasy football in the last decade, even surpassing running backs in terms of real football appeal. If you don’t believe me, check out the contracts of Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs (to name just a few). The position does have a ton of talent across the league, to be certain, and changing NFL rules favoring the offenses have allowed wide receivers an advantage over opposing defenders. The statistics prove that quite clearly.

Still, finding elite wideouts in the first round of the NFL draft has oftentimes been an exercise in futility. How futile, you might ask? Well, you’re about to find that out.

Historically, wideouts have not been the No. 1 overall pick often. The last one came in 1996, when the New York Jets selected Keyshawn Johnson. Furthermore, Johnson and Irving Fryar (1984) are the lone wideouts to be the No. 1 overall pick since 1965. That said, the position has become the most prominently drafted in the first round overall in recent seasons, as more NFL teams are passing on running backs. As we learned in one of my previous articles, just 19 runners have gone in the first round since 2010.

During that same time, a combined 45 wide receivers have been selected in Round 1. The level of success at the position hasn’t been all that great overall in the last decade, but it has certainly improved in recent seasons. So, let’s take a walk down memory lane and reminisce on all of the first-round wideouts since 2012, how they fared as rookies and how many of them actually became fantasy football superstars.

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2021
This draft class of wideouts is one of the best ever selected in the first round. Ja’Marr Chase broke rookie records and finished fifth in points at the position. Jaylen Waddle was the WR13 with 104 catches and over 245 fantasy points, while DeVonta Smith posted over 900 yards and finished 30th in points at the position. The fourth and final first-round wideout, Kadarius Toney, showed flashes of potential in his limited time. Unfortunately for Toney, injuries limited him to just 10 games in 2021.

2020
The 2020 rookie class was loaded with talented wideouts, so it’s no surprise that a total of six went in the first round. Justin Jefferson was the best of the bunch, recording an NFL-record 1,400 yards while finishing with the fourth-most points among rookie wideouts all time. CeeDee Lamb finished as the WR22, but he could have been much better had his starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, not gone down with a season-ending injury. Brandon Aiyuk was the WR36, though his stock fell this past season due to the emergence of Deebo Samuel. The rest of the wideouts in the round, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor and Henry Ruggs III, finished WR45 or worst. Ruggs, who was the first wideout drafted, finished last in the group at WR94 and is now out of the league altogether.

2019
Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry were the lone wideouts drafted in the first round in 2019, and neither has made a significant fantasy impact. Brown finished no better than WR36 in his first two seasons, though he did rank 22nd among wideouts in 2021. Harry’s best finish is WR99, and his seasonal fantasy value is mostly null at this point.

2018
D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley have both met expectations in the stat sheets, though the latter missed most of last season and has been suspended for 2022 due to gambling on football games. The former has a pair of top-25 finishes on his resume, while Ridley had finished no worse than WR27 in PPR formats and broke out to be the WR5 in 2020.

2017
The 2017 first-round wide receivers have been a disappointment, to say the least. The fifth overall pick in the draft, Corey Davis’ best fantasy finish in five seasons is WR28. Mike Williams failed to finish better than WR41 in his first four seasons, but he did bust out in 2021 with a WR12 rank. John Ross has been injury prone, playing in eight or fewer games three times in his five seasons between Cincinnati and New York.

2016
Browns fans might want to forget, but Corey Coleman was the first wide receiver picked (No. 15 overall) in the 2016 draft. He never ranked better than WR84 and had a mere 61 catches over three seasons. Josh Doctson, the No. 22 overall pick, never finished better than WR5 in Washington. Laquon Treadwell, the Vikings first-round selection, has never ranked higher than tied for 90th among fantasy wideouts. Will Fuller has had the most, well, “success” in the league out of the quartet. However, he’s never finished better than 32nd in points at the position. He was on pace for a potential top-10 finish in 2020, but a league-imposed suspension cost him his final five games of the year.

2015
Much like in 2020, the 2015 NFL Draft had a combined six wideouts come off the board in the first round. The results, unfortunately, weren’t nearly as positive. Amari Cooper was the WR21, and he’s gone on to produce four top-20 finishes including one top-10. He’s been the lone bright spot in this class, however. Kevin White was never able to avoid injuries and failed to rank higher than 123^rd among wideouts. DeVante Parker has finished better than WR40 once (WR11 in 2019), while Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett have zero top-20 finishes and just one top-25 finish.

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2014
As bad as the 2015 class was among first-round wideouts, the 2014 class is considered one of the best. Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin all finished in the top 20 in points as rookies, including OBJ’s WR7 rank. He’s gone on to produce three top-seven finishes and one top-15 finish, though his stats did shrink in Cleveland. Evans has been no worse than WR23 in his seven NFL seasons, including a trio of top-nine ranks. He’s also had 1,000-plus yards in every year of his career. Brandin Cooks wasn’t a star as a rookie, but he’s gone on to produce five top-15 seasons. Sammy Watkins showed promise earlier in his career, but he’s finished no better than WR41 in each of his last four seasons. Benjamin also looked good earlier in his career, but he missed the 2015 season with an injured knee and was out of the NFL after 2018.

2013
Tavon Austin, the No. 8 overall pick of the St. Louis Rams, never had a top 25 finish among wideouts. His best rank came in 2015, when he was the WR27. Not exactly what the Rams or fantasy fans were expecting from the former West Virginia star. Cordarrelle Patterson was seen as a potential fantasy sleeper after showing flashes of potential as a rookie, but he failed to meet expectations and ended up bouncing around the league after 2016. He actually had his best fantasy season in 2021 in his age-30 campaign.

The biggest winner of the trio of first-rounders is DeAndre Hopkins. After finishing 50^th in points as a rookie, Nuk went on to post finishes of WR14, WR4, WR2, WR2 and WR5. He missed time due to injuries last season, but he still averaged 14.7 points per game.

2012
Justin Blackmon was considered a massive prospect coming out of Oklahoma State, but off-field issues became a major problem. He never finished better than WR29 and was out of the league after three years. Michael Floyd showed some flashes with the Cardinals, but he had just one top-30 finish among wideouts. Kendall Wright has a top-20 finish on his resume, but he never met the expectations of a first-round wideout. The same can be said of A.J. Jenkins, who played three games for the Niners and was out of the league after 2014. In all, this was a pretty brutal first-round class of wideouts.

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Breakdown

Since 2012, a total of 39 wideouts have been drafted in the first round. Chase (2021), Jefferson (2020), and Beckham Jr. (2014) are the only three to finish in the top 10 as rookies. Just three others -- Waddle (2021), Evans (2014) and Benjamin (2014) -- finished WR11-20. Cooper (2015) and Ridley (2018) both ranked WR22 as rookies.

If we’re being honest, however, it can be argued that 22 of the 35 rookie wideouts (63 %) taken in the first round between 2012-2020 have disappointed on some level.

The good news is that we’ve seen more first-round wideouts succeed quickly in the last four seasons, with Chase, Jefferson and Ridley owning top-six finishes at the position. What’s more, eight of the top 20 overall rookie finishers since 2010 have come in the last four seasons. That could be a good trend for the incoming class of rookie wide receivers, many of whom are projected to be first-rounders. That list includes the likes of Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks and Chris Olave. We could also see Jahan Dotson, George Pickens or Christian Watson land in Round 1

While I do expect a few of them to emerge into fantasy stars who could make a quick impact (which we have seen more and more over the last few seasons), don’t forget the overall trend of first-round wideouts. For every Chase or Jefferson, there are more guys like Reagor and Harry. The immediate stars have been fewer and further between, and the fantasy football world has been littered with “what ifs” and disappointments.

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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!