Denver Broncos 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Russell Wilson 2.0
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Other than four seasons with Peyton Manning from 2012 to 2015 (50-14 with a Super Bowl victory and a Super Bowl loss), the Denver Broncos haven’t had a franchise quarterback since John Elway retired after the 1998 season. So the Broncos sold their future (multiple early-round draft picks) over the winter to acquire Russell Wilson, to hopefully recreate a magical run similar to the Manning era. Denver has a developing potential stud running back (Javonte Williams) plus two young, high upside wide receivers (Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy). Wilson is an excellent quarterback who knows how to win games late. Denver won’t have an easy path to the playoffs in the competitive AFC West, but they look to be a much better team heading into 2022 with a proven quarterback behind center.
Offense
Last year Denver wanted to run the ball as much as possible, but lack of quarterback play and game score hurt their chances. They finished below the league average in pass attempts (31.8 per game – 22nd) while running the ball 45.7% of the time. Russell Wilson has thrown over 550 passes (558) only once in his career, so the Broncos should try to run a similar offense this season.
Russell Wilson – click here for fantasy projection
Other options: Brett Rypien, Josh Johnson
Running Backs
The run game for the Broncos progressed again last year, leading to a three-year high in rushing attempts (415), rushing yards (1,867), and touchdowns (17). They caught 20.6% of Denver’s completions while more than doubling their output in receiving yards (551 – 272 in 2020).
Javonte Williams – click here for fantasy projection
Melvin Gordon III
Denver had Gordon on the field for 514 plays last season compared to 551 plays by Javonte Williams while missing one game. He ended the year with 1,113 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 28 catches. His best play in the run game came in Week 1 (11/101/1), Week 14 (24/111/2), and Week 18 (12/110/1). Gordon delivered competitive yards per rush (4.6 and 4.5) over the past two seasons, but his rushing output was weaker on the road (79/303/2 – 3.8 yards per rush). He finished 18th in running scoring (198.70) in PPR leagues, one spot below Williams.
Fantasy outlook: Surprisingly, Gordon signed only a one-year deal for $2.5 million. He brings a veteran presence while still having three-down ability. Denver should give him between 175 and 225 touches, pointing 1,000 combined yards with some value in scoring and catches. Gordon is the 39th ranked running back in the NFFC in May with an ADP of 110. I expect him to be an RB2 at a minimum, making him a value in fantasy drafts.
Other options: Mike Boone, Damarea Crockett, Tyreik McAllister
Wide Receivers
The Broncos struggled to get their wide receivers involved last season. As a result, their wideouts caught only 48.3% of Denver’s completions despite finishing with a three-year high in catches (171). In addition, they had a regression in receiving yards (2,257) and touchdowns (8).
Jerry Jeudy – click here for fantasy projection
Courtland Sutton
After missing most of 2020 with a torn ACL, Sutton came into last year with questions about his early health. He caught only one pass for 14 yards in Week 1, but his game was fantasy worthy in three games (9/159, 7/120/1, and 8/94/1) over the following five matchups. Unfortunately, Denver struggled to get him the ball over his final 10 games (20/237/0 on 40 targets). Over this span, Sutton had two catches or fewer in eight games. When at his best in 2019, he caught 72 passes for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. His catch rate (55.9) has been relatively low to start his career while gaining 15.2 yards per catch.
Fantasy outlook: Sutton should have a role similar to DK Metcalf in the Broncos’ offense. His size (6’4” and 215 lbs.) points to a natural progression in scoring, and Russell Wilson will find him in the open field in the deep passing game. He comes off the board as the 26th wideout in the early draft season with an ADP of 66 in the NFFC. Sutton should have a floor of 70 catches for 1,100 yards with a chance at double-digit touchdowns.
KJ Hamler
Injuries cost Hamler three games in his first year with Denver. He finished with 30 catches for 381 yards and three touchdowns on 56 targets. Hamler struggled to get open with a low catch rate (53.6) while scoring over 10.0 fantasy points in three matchups (3/13/1, 6/75, and 2/86/2). Over his final five games, Hamler had five combined catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. Last year a torn left ACL ended his season after three games (5/74 on 10 targets).
Injuries cost Hamler three games in his first year with Denver. He finished with 30 catches for 381 yards and three touchdowns on 56 targets. Hamler struggled to get open with a low catch rate (53.6) while scoring over 10.0 fantasy points in three matchups (3/13/1, 6/75, and 2/86/2). Over his final five games, Hamler had five combined catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. Last year a torn left ACL ended his season after three games (5/74 on 10 targets).
Despite being undersized (5’9” and 178 lbs.), Hamler does play with strength (15 reps in the NFL combine bench press). His electric speed and quickness will threaten a defense whenever he gets the ball in space. Hamler has a slot feel, but his game is about challenging defenders with his legs. Once he gets the ball in his hands, the next move is hitting the gas while having the talent and vision to create in space.
Fantasy outlook: Hamler brings an exciting dynamic to the Broncos’ passing game. He doesn’t project to get enough targets to be a starting fantasy option without an injury, but Russell Wilson will find him in space, creating some impact games even with a low number of chances. Hamler falls into the flier category with some draft momentum expected over the summer.
Tim Patrick
Over the past two seasons (51/742/6 and 53/734/5), Patrick has done an excellent job off the bench filling in for injured wide receivers on the Broncos. Last year he delivered playable stats in seven matchups (4/39/1, 3/37/1, 5/98, 7/89, 3/42/1, 4/85/1, and 6/95). Additionally, Patrick fits well as insurance for Courtland Sutton based on his size (6’4” and 210 lbs.).
Fantasy outlook: Denver will mix and match their third wide receiver option based on matchup. Patrick adds scoring value with upside off the bench. His ADP (163) in the NFFC ranks him third on the Broncos, but he’ll have to fight for snaps with KJ Hamler.
Other options: Kendall Hinton, Montrell Washington, Tyrie Cleveland
Tight Ends
The tight end position has become more relevant in the Broncos’ offense over the past two seasons thanks to the development of Noah Fant (62/673/3 and 68/670/4). They set three-year highs in catches (109), receiving yards (1,047), and touchdowns (7) last season, but part of the cost of acquiring Russell Wilson was Noah Fant. Wilson tends to look for his tight ends in the red zone in his career. Therefore, regression should be expected by Denver’s tight end in 2022.
Albert Okwuegbunam
As the TE2 for Denver last year, Okwuegbunam caught 33 passes for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 40 targets. His best value came in three matchups (3/16/1, 3/77, and 5/41/1) while never receiving more than five targets in a game.
Okwuegbunam caught 98 passes for 1,187 yards and 23 touchdowns on 144 targets over his three seasons in college.
Fantasy outlook: The Broncos have confidence in Okwuegbunam’s ability and expect him to start the season. He should push his catch total over 50 with a chance to secure five to seven scores. In May, his ADP (147) in the NFFC paints him as a mid-tier TE2 in the fantasy market.
Greg Dulcich
Over the past two seasons at UCLA, Dulcich caught 68 balls for 1,242 yards and 10 touchdowns on 107 targets. He gained an impressive 18.3 yards per catch. However, his value as a blocker looks minimal early in his career, pointing to only a vertical opportunity for Denver in his rookie season.
Other options: Eric Tomlinson, Eric Saubert, Dylan Parham
Kicker
Brandon McManus
Despite falling short in field goals made over the past three years (29, 28, and 26), McManus has been a beast from 50 yards or more (19-for-31). He has five missed extra points over his previous 87 chances. The Broncos scored 37 touchdowns in 2021 with 31 field goal chances.
Fantasy outlook: McManus brings a big leg with top-tier upside if Denver can create enough scoring chances. He ranks 11th in the early draft season in the NFFC.
Coaching
Nathaniel Hackett takes over as Denver’s head coach after spending most of the past 10 seasons running the offenses for Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Green Bay. His progression with the Packers between 2019 and 2021 created his opportunity.
The Broncos’ offense is now in the hands of Justin Outten. He spent the last three years as the tight end coach for the Packers. Outten has six seasons of coach experience in the NFL.
Denver finished 23rd in points scored (335) and 19th in offensive yards, their seventh straight year with a below league average offense.
Ejiro Evero earns his first defensive coordinator job after spending the previous 11 years in various positions in the NFL. He worked as the Rams' secondary coach and passing game coordinator in 2021.
Their defense finished with the third-lowest number of points allowed (322), 124 lower than 2020 (446). Denver bumped to eighth in yards allowed.
Free Agency
The Broncos added DE Randy Gregory, DT D.J. Jones, and CB K’Waun Williams to their defense. Both defensive linemen project to help their run defense. They lost QB Teddy Bridgewater and CB Bryce Callahan to free agency, while LB Alexander Johnson, T Bobby Massie, and CB Kyle Fuller remain unsigned. Denver brought in T Billy Turner and Tom Compton for depth on the offensive line.
Draft
The focus of the 2022 NFL Draft was to improve the talent on the defensive side of the ball – DE Nik Bonitto (2.32), CB Damarri Mathis (4.10), DT Eyioma Uwazurike (4.11), S Delarrin Turner-Yell (5.9), DT Matt Henningsen (6.28), and CB Faion Hicks (7.11). Their other players added were in the third (TE Greg Dulcich) and fifth (WR Montrell Washington and C Luke Wattenberg) rounds.
Offensive Line
The Broncos repeated their 13th place finish in rushing yards (2,025) with 16 touchdowns. Their ball carriers gained 4.5 yards per carry with 10 runs over 20 yards.
Denver climbed to 22nd in passing yards (3,856) with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks while gaining only 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
Their offensive line has four players that project to be league average or better in pass protection. Denver needs someone to step up at right tackle with growth needed in run blocking. The Broncos’ line should push toward the top third in the league in 2022.
Defense
The Broncos worked their way to 15th defending the run (1,892 yards), with ball carriers gaining only 4.3 yards per rush. They allowed nine touchdowns with 10 runs over 20 yards.
Denver ranked 8th in passing yards allowed (3,652) while allowing 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The Broncos picked up 36 sacks. Quarterbacks gained 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 48 completions over 20 yards.
S Justin Simmons and CB Patrick Surtain set the tone for the Broncos' secondary. Simmons is an excellent all-around player, while Surtain has the talent to be a lockdown cover corner. DE Bradley Chubb has continued to battle injuries since his impactful rookie season (60 tackles and 12 sacks). Denver's defense's first and second levels have plenty of question marks, inviting regression in play this year.
The AFC West is loaded with offensive talent, making the Broncos’ defense a challenging fantasy ride each week. They rank 9th in the NFFC in the early draft season, but I only see matchup value if a couple of players emerge in the pass rush.
2022 FANTASY OUTLOOKS
AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
