Bold Fantasy Takes on 25 Bold NFL Predictions
It's that time of year again! Conor Orr has released his 100 bold predictions for the 2023 season and if you haven't checked it out yet, it's must-read material. It is fun from a pure football perspective and a great cheat sheet for fantasy football managers looking to have a different angle for their fantasy drafts.
Below, I have taken 25 of Conor's bold predictions and drawn a conclusion about what they would mean for a fantasy football team should they pan out. Remember, many of these predictions are bold. But in fantasy football, fortune favors the brave.
Now, let's have some fun and win some fantasy football leagues.
Jessica Rapfogel/USA Today Sports
Mark Andrews will be the Ravens' leading receiver
Considering the Ravens passed for only 3,054 yards last season -- fourth-fewest in the NFL -- that doesn't leave much to be divided between the wideout corps in Baltimore. Tap the breaks on overdrafting Odell Beckham, Jr., and Andrews should remain the TE2 off the draft board.
Deshaun Watson will finish the season with a career-high in rushing yards and touchdowns
What this says to me: draft DeAndre Hopkins. That has to be figured in here, right? Otherwise, Amari Cooper to the moon.
Rhamondre Stevenson will lead the NFL in rushing
I can't buy into this one, but if you do, you're getting one heck of a value taking him as the 10th running back off the board with an overall ADP of 28. Start your PPR draft with two wideouts and bank him as your RB1—no need to take a runner in the first round.
Christian McCaffrey will become the first back since 2006 to surpass 20 rushing touchdowns
Don't be afraid to draft CMC as the number one overall pick. Enough said.
Tyler Allgeier will outrush Bijan Robinson
I just saw Michael Fabiano's head explode. Seriously, though -- pass on Robinson, who is now going in the first round. Allegeier is going at pick 150 overall. That pick costs you nothing, with tremendous upside.
Justin Fields will have more than 40 total touchdowns
That's 15 more TDs than last year, and he can't run them all in. Hello, DJ Moore! Chicago looks good on you. Cole Kmet gets a bump, too.
Neither Bijan Robinson nor Jahmyr Gibbs will lead all rookies in rushing
I have a feeling this one is right, and I was already avoiding both backs at their current ADPs. Who will it be, though? Zach Charbonnet in Seattle? Kendre Miller in New Orleans? Is it Devon Achane in Miami? At their current ADPs, take a late shot on at least one of them.
Samaje Perine will break your heart in the fantasy football playoffs
Conor expects Perine to be the one that goes off at the end of the season… for your opponent after being picked up on the waiver wire. If you have Javonte Williams, you’ll want his handcuff. If you don’t have Williams, pick up Perine anyway. You’d rather him go off on your bench than in someone else’s lineup.
J.K. Dobbins will rush for 1,200 yards
I just did a happy dance. I got him in the sixth round of our SI Experts mock draft. He's better in standard than PPR, but with 1,200 ground yards and enough goal-line carries, the Dobbins value should be figured into your draft plan. After all, he was returning from injury last year and once healthy, he averaged 7.0 yards per carry and 100 yards per game in his final four games.
Bob Self/Florida Times-Union via USA Today Network
Christian Kirk will catch 100 passes
I'm still drafting Calvin Ridley because if Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts can all support two top-10 receivers, so can Trevor Lawrence. With Evan Engram's return in question, I can see both wideouts returning value this year. Kirk will get more action in the slot and Ridley will be the threat on the outside. If Engram signs, there is no way I'm drafting him in the Top 12.
The Browns will acquire DeAndre Hopkins
I knew it! It is pretty juicy to pair Hopkins and Watson again. Both players get a bump if the reunion happens.
Austin Ekeler will lead the NFL in total touchdowns for a third straight year
If true, Ekeler should be the number-one pick overall. Ekeler finished with more PPR points than Christian McCaffrey last season, with both playing in all 17 games. He also finished with more PPR points than Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. Let that sink in.
Giants rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt will score at least five touchdowns
He's a speedy deep threat, and there is little competition in New York. He's currently going at pick 159, but I'd rather have him in best ball than seasonal, as I'd expect his production to be boom or bust from week to week.
Derek Carr will post 30 touchdowns for just the second time in his career
Chris Olave is worth an early second-round pick. Olave had 1,042 receiving yards last year but fewer than five touchdowns. If Carr has 30, Olave will see positive touchdown regression.
The Cowboys will re-sign Ezekiel Elliott
This changes nothing about how to draft Tony Pollard. Pollard finished as the RB7 last season with Zeke, and having Zeke pass protect and get some of the tough goal-line carries will protect Pollard, who is a different kind of back. Pollard will never be tough between the tackles, and he shouldn't be—wheels up for Pollard.
Trevor Lawrence will become the 10th quarterback to pass for more than 5,000 yards in a season
Confirmed: You can draft Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk (though preferably not on the same fantasy team). Lawrence finished as the QB7 last season, and he's coming off the board as the QB8 this year. That could be an outstanding value.
It's Kadarius Toney's season
O.K., maybe. But let's put that in perspective. Patrick Mahomes threw for more than 5,000 yards last year and only one player had more than 1,000 yards -- tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce's 1,338 receiving ranked eighth in the NFL among all receivers, and he finished as the number four overall fantasy receiver. No other Chiefs receiver had more than 950 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster had 933 and finished as the WR40. Draft accordingly.
John Metchie III will put up at least 700 receiving yards
Brandin Cooks is gone, and C.J. Stroud has to throw the ball to someone. Metchie is someone you can grab on the waiver wire or with the last pick of your draft.
IMAGO/Icon Sportswire
Michael Thomas will revive his career with a solid 2023
Pffffft. Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me THREE times? Thomas is a long way from his record-breaking 2019 season. I'm out, but if you're in, he's going as a seventh-round pick. Elijah Moore, Quentin Johnston and Courtland Sutton are in that range, so choose accordingly.
Neither Mike Williams nor Keenan Allen will lead the Chargers in receiving
Joshua Palmer is going at pick 200, and Quentin Johnston is going at pick 87. Choose one. Palmer is the dart that could return the most value based on ADP. You’ll likely have to pick Palmer if you’re also picking Michael Thomas.
Jameson Williams will score six touchdowns in his final 11 games
He better, because dynasty owners are getting impatient. Remember, he will miss six games due to suspension, so you're getting 11 games max. But if he puts up six TDs in 11 games, he'll be worth his ADP of 100.
Justin Herbert won't set a career-high in touchdowns, but he will set a career low in interceptions
That works. SI Sportsbook has Herbert with better odds than Jalen Hurts to win MVP. 5,000-plus yards and 37 touchdowns with fewer than 10 INT could do the trick. Herbert threw for more than 4,700 yards in 2022 while playing banged up for most of the season and with a less-than-healthy receiving corps. This year they added Quentin Johnston and a new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. Herbert is the QB7 off the board right now, and I'm all in at that ADP.
Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. will rush for more than 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns
I love this one. Another running back to target late so you can grab elite receivers early. Seven TDs and 1,100 yards would have been RB14 last season. He's coming off the board now as the RB36. Antonio Gibson truthers can still hope he gets the receiving work, but Robinson should be the priority.
Ja'Marr Chase will win Offensive Player of the Year
Chase's 22 receiving touchdowns across his first two seasons are the most since OBJ. Imagine if he is healthy for the entire season. Chase scored the fifth-most fantasy points per game at the wideout position in 2022. Lock and load him as your WR1.
Joe Burrow will win his first MVP award
I'm so in on Joe Burrow. This takes no convincing for me. And yes, even with Chase expected to win OPOY, I'm in on Tee Higgins, too. Burrow is not a particularly mobile QB, so if he's going to win MVP, Higgins will get plenty of attention. Both Higgins and Chase tallied 1,000-plus yards in 2021 and ‘22. Take advantage of a late pick of Tyler Boyd in the slot, too.
