Josh Jacobs, Malik Nabers Among Potential 2026 Fantasy Football Busts

One of the most important parts of having a successful fantasy football draft is not only to pick sleeper and breakout players who could exceed expectations, but also to know when it’s time to pass on certain players. This was never more evident than last season with Saquon Barkley. One of my biggest bust candidates going into the 2025 campaign, his numbers fell across the board, causing fantasy fans headaches rather than euphoria.

The common term used to describe such players is “bust,” but I’m not sure that term is correct in every instance. While Barkley was certainly a disappointment (he scored 123 fewer points than in 2024), he was still a top-15 fantasy running back. Justin Jefferson, who went from an elite, must-start player to someone who you almost couldn’t start down the stretch (thanks to J.J. McCarthy), was closer to the term bust. In all, managers should be looking to avoid players coming off “magical” seasons, or those who could fail to live up to their average draft position.

This season, I have an entirely new list of players to beware of and will be looking to avoid in my 2026 fantasy drafts. Whether it’s because of their talent, their projected touches, targets, etc., their aforementioned ADP data, or all three, here are 10 players to draft with caution or to avoid.

QUARTERBACK

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Lawrence averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game and finished fourth in points among all quarterbacks this past year. However, I fear his magical season mostly due to his likelihood of regression as a runner. Lawrence rushed for a career-high 359 yards and nine touchdowns in 2025. That’s more rushing scores than he had recorded in his previous two years combined! Lawrence isn’t Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, either, so those totals are destined to fall (and possibly drastically). As a result, I’d avoid him, because rushing total regression is coming.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

I was dead wrong about McCaffrey last season. His proneness to injuries scared me off from drafting him in Round 1, and he went on to score a league-high 416.6 fantasy points. So, why do I have him listed as a potential bust? Well, he’s entering his age-30 season after a year with 450 touches between the regular season and postseason. That’s a ton of work. CMC has also played back-to-back full seasons only once since 2020, and just two of the past 13 backs who led the league in touches went on to finish in the top 12 the following year. Buyer beware.

Josh Jacobs, Packers

Jacobs was in the news this offseason for all of the wrong reasons, accused of several violent acts that resulted in him landing in jail. He was ultimately released, and that whole situation might be nothing. It also brought up the fact that on the field, Jacobs wasn’t the same player last year. He averaged 3.97 yards per carry (second-lowest total in his past five years), and his point-per-game average dropped 1.4 from the previous season. Jacobs’s rushing yards over expected was also an ugly -7 (96th among RBs), down from +217 in 2024 (4th). At 28, he’s now a declining fantasy football player.

Travis Etienne Jr., Saints

Etienne is coming off a strong season, finishing 10th in fantasy points among runners while averaging nearly 15 points per game. Moving to New Orleans and the offense of coach Kellen Moore is a positive on the surface, but what if the Saints decide to keep Alvin Kamara? He is still on the roster and even showed up to OTAs, so there’s at least a chance he remains a part of the backfield this season. If that happens, Etienne’s ceiling will take an obvious hit.

RJ Harvey, Broncos

Harvey showed flashes of potential in his rookie season, scoring 16-plus fantasy points in six of his final 10 games. However, most of his success came without J.K. Dobbins, who was injured and missed the final seven games. The Broncos still decided to retain Dobbins, and they drafted Jonah Coleman for added depth. With Dobbins projected to be the Week 1 starter, Harvey will be no more than a committee runner with a questionable ceiling in 2026.

WIDE RECEIVER

Malik Nabers, Giants

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Nabers has become a big question mark in fantasy drafts. He had a major knee reconstruction last year and required a clean-up in May to relieve some stiffness. The Giants have also added a boatload of middling wide receivers, a list that includes 33-year-old Odell Beckham Jr., to add depth if Nabers is ready for training camp or Week 1. There’s even been talk that he could open the season on the PUP list, and it could take time for him to return to his previous fantasy greatness. So, if you’re still planning on drafting Nabers, it should be with the expectation that you’re not going to get high-end totals.

Davante Adams, Rams

Adams led all wide receivers in touchdown catches (14) last season, and he averaged a solid 16.8 points per game. However, he did miss a few games with a hamstring injury, and the Rams were actively looking to either trade him or upgrade at the position during the offseason (they were interested in A.J. Brown). That’s concerning, as is the fact that Adams is heading into his age-33 season. Everything went right with the Rams passing attack last year, too, especially with Matthew Stafford, and that’s unlikely to be the scenario again in 2026.

Jaylen Waddle, Broncos

The Broncos gave up multiple draft picks, including a 2026 first-rounder (that was traded to the Jets), in exchange for Waddle. While that’s a win for the offense and Bo Nix, it’s a bit less of a positive move for Waddle’s fantasy value. That’s due to a potential target share decline from the 25.6% he saw in 2025 games without Tyreek Hill. The Broncos wide receiver room is loaded with talent, including Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, so Waddle’s role might not be as consistent as it was during his final year in Miami. He’ll be a risky WR2 in drafts.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars

The fantasy community is a year late on this prediction, but I also don’t see Thomas being a major bounce-back candidate, either. Most of his fantasy success came in a different offense and with Mac Jones, not Trevor Lawrence, at quarterback. In eight career games played with Jones, BTJ averaged 19.3 points. In 23 games with Lawrence, that average falls to 12.2 points (including 14 games last year, when he averaged only 9.9 points). If you’re going to target a Jacksonville wide receiver, it should be Parker Washington, not Thomas.

TIGHT END

George Kittle, 49ers

Kittle was great last season for managers, averaging 14.7 points per game; only Trey McBride was better. The real issue with the veteran this season is obvious: He sustained a torn Achilles in the postseason (Jan. 11), which required surgery and typically takes nine to 12 months to recover. Even on the short end of that timeline, how will Kittle, who will turn 33 in October, perform after a serious injury? And what if the timeline extends well into the regular season? If you do draft Kittle, I’d temper your expectations due to a potential (very) slow start.

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