Using Vegas Lines to Predict Joe Burrow's Fantasy Value

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The hype around Bengals' new quarterback Joe Burrow is has skyrocketed. The FanDuel Sportsbook has Burrows passing yard prop number set at 3,800, and his passing touchdown prop is set at 22.5.

I think it's smart for fantasy owners to study prop numbers before drafting their fantasy teams. Let's start with Burrow's passing prop number.

Last season there were only 14 quarterbacks to pass for over 3,800 yards. Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen all threw for less than 3,800 yards. If Burrow passes for over 3,800 yards this season, he would surpass Peyton Manning for the rookie record. Manning also has the record for the most passing touchdowns in a rookie season at 26. Burrow's prop number at 22.5 is pretty close to the record. Bookmakers are expecting a huge year from the rookie quarterback. Bengals insider James Rapien breaks down why:

Burrow will start and has one of the best-supporting classes a rookie quarterback could ask for. There are some concerns about the offensive line, but Green, Higgins, and Ross combined with Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Joe Mixon is a quality group of skill players.

With all these skillful players around him, Burrow could very well live up to those lofty rookie expectations. Last season, Tom Brady threw for just over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdown passes, ranking him QB12 in fantasy leagues. With the weapons Burrow has at his disposal, he could be a top-12 fantasy QB this season. In early drafts, Burrow is selected as the 19th quarterback, which makes the Heisman Winner a tremendous draft-day value.