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Don’t Draft Todd Gurley at his Current ADP

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2:04

Since 2017, Todd Gurley has led the league in touchdowns with 42 scores. The next closest rusher is Derrick Henry with 33. Yet fantasy football managers are weary of drafting Gurley in 2020. It’s not because he signed with a new team this offseason in the Falcons but rather a concern about his knee problems that often made him look sluggish in 2019. His 3.8 yards-per-carry average during his final season with the Rams was the second-lowest mark of his career and a full 1.1 yards less than his career peak of 4.9 yards-per-carry.

Sports Illustrated’s fantasy football analyst Corey Parson explains why drafting Gurley at his current Average Draft Position of 61 is too high for the Atlanta rusher.

Read the full transcript from Parson’s analysis below:

Kaitlin O'Toole: Sports Illustrated is taking you inside the world of fantasy sports. Joining me now is SI's fantasy and gambling analyst Corey Parson. Corey, there had been a lot of health concerns surrounding Todd Gurley. Los Angeles Rams recently decided to release him just two years after making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. What can we expect to see out of Gurley this season now that he is with the Falcons?

Todd Gurley

Corey Parson: Well, Kaitlin, that's still kind of a mystery because it depends on the health situation of Todd Gurley. We've seen him have trouble with his knees for the past couple of seasons now. Listen, when he's at his best, he's really a good goal-line back. He's an excellent pass catcher and a very good runner out of the backfield, something exactly like what the Atlanta Falcons need. The problem is nobody really knows the health status of Todd Gurley right now, especially with the COVID-19 pandemic, team doctors in Atlanta have not had a chance to look at him yet.

Kaitlin O'Toole: So, obviously, the biggest question is these health concerns. So knowing that, is this somebody that fantasy owners want to draft on their team?

Corey Parson: Well, right now, Todd Gurley is going off the board as the 17th running back, but I think I will let him stay right there. Listen, the health concerns are really a lot to me. When you look at the rest of the players on the Atlanta Falcons, they have a young man in Brian Hill who came on and showed some flashes at times last season. I think he could be a guy to be in the mix to split some touches with Gurley. Ito Smith has also been around the Falcons' organization for the past couple of seasons now, but he has been proven to be a complete disaster. Listen, Todd Gurley's biggest fantasy asset is the ability to score touchdowns. We don't know if that's going to be the case in Atlanta. I think you can also see Devonta Freeman maybe get resigned by the Falcons on a cheaper deal, but for the most part, Todd Gurley in the Falcons rushing attack is something I'm going to stay away from fantasy. I think guys like Julio Jones and Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley are better bets.

Kaitlin O'Toole: All right, Corey, thank you so much for your insight on this. Appreciate it. For the latest fantasy and gambling analysis, stay with us, SI.com.