Moneyline: KC: (-155) | DEN: (+135)
Spread: KC: -3 (-110) | DEN: +3 (-110)
Total: 48.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: 48.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: KC: 65% | DEN: 35%
If the sharp action is any indication for what we are in store for Thursday night, all fantasy owners need to employ both Denver running backs as well as the big three from the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce). According to the information provided by Vegas Whispers, the sharps backed the home ‘dog Broncos at +5 and have now steamed the line down to +3. This game offers a prime opportunity to educate those who may be new to the world of sports betting.
When the public is all over the favorite (KC 65%), yet the line is moving in the opposite direction toward the underdog, it's time to stop and take notice. This is the biggest indicator of sharp money moving the line, despite the overwhelming flood of public support of the favorite at the counters. The Chiefs (4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) will be looking to stop their two-game losing streak in search of their fourth straight road win. Denver (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) will be facing arguably the best offense in the NFL led by last year's MVP in Mahomes. Kansas City can point to its inability to stop the run as the biggest reason why the team has dropped two straight games. Fantasy players should start RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman with extreme confidence. On the other side of the ball, owners should start Mahomes, Hill and Kelce with the same confidence. They always land near the top at their respective positions once again in Week 7 Fulltime Fantasy’s rankings. The sharps think the short week and travel will prevent the Chiefs finding a solution to their woeful run defense and are backing the home ‘dog Broncos who possess a strong ground game and a pass rush that could make things uncomfortable for Mahomes—who has been dealing with an injured ankle.
The Play: Denver +3
- Denver is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 Thursday games
- The over is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings between the AFC West foes
- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings in Denver
- The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the AFC West rivals
- The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the clubs