NBA Best Bets: Don't Be Afraid to Turn Up the Heat

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Heat's Erik Spoelstra and Tyler Herro

We went 4-1 on last night's 11-game slate. Let's run it up again for Tuesday, here are my picks for all three of tonight's games.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat: Heat -8

The Hawks come into tonight's game 3-0 against the spread, yet all three of their games have gone under the total. The Hawks were my favorite underdogs last season, we ran it often with the boys from the A. I'm am not at all surprised that they have been this profitable early in the season. Unfortunately, tonight those trends will come to an end. The Miami Heat are also undefeated ATS, and all of their games have gone over the total. Jimmy Butler makes his Heat debut tonight versus the Hawks and their soon-to-be All-Star point guard Trae Young.  

The public is on the Hawks this game and I can't really say I blame them. My bias wants me to bet the Hawks and continue to root for Young, however the bettor in me recognizes a pair of trends. This game is essentially a trendy underdog vs. a contrarian favorite. In these situations, I'm going to lean toward the home favorite. Miami is playing with a day of rest, the Hawks are playing on the tail end of a home-road back-to-back. The Hawks may have gotten to South Beach last night with enough time to hang out. I will lay the eight points with the Heat. I also like over 223.5. If you are into player props, I also like new-dad Butler over 20.5 points.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets: Nuggets -5.5

This game, much like the last one, features a trendy road underdog vs. a contrarian home favorite. The public is backing the Mavericks at about a 65% clip, as this number opened up at Nuggets -6. The public really wants to watch and cheer on Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, and it is betting that way. What the public doesn't remember is that the Mavs were terrible on the road last season. You may think that Doncic has Porzingis now, sure. Before we get carried away, let's also take into account the Nuggets rarely lose at home, they even just covered a 5.5-point spread versus the Kings just last night. I'm not worried about the Nuggets on this home back-to-back, it has been a good spot for them. The Mavericks do have an impressive road win over the Pelicans this season, although they were down by 16 in the first half. If they fall behind like that tonight, they will get hammered. Lay the 5.5 with the Nuggets. I also lean toward the under of 213.5.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Grizzlies +12

The Grizzlies' sensational rookie Ja Morant makes his Hollywood debut tonight vs. the Lakers. Morant was awesome Sunday night in the Grizzlies' upset victory over the Nets. We cashed the spread and moneyline that night. Good Times. Tonight, the Grizzlies get a much more difficult test in a road matchup versus LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers. This game opened up with the Lakers as an 11-point favorite—it could have been -1100 and the public would have still jumped all over it. The number has moved up to 12. I am a huge James fan, but I will never bet on him. James's teams are also overvalued, that's because he is a megastar who draws eyes to television screens. Public bettors loved LBJ in Cleveland and Miami, so imagine how overvalued this Laker team is. I will take 12 with the Grizzlies. 

Season record: 4-1