Evaluating NHL Stanley Cup Favorites Heading Into Stretch Run

As NHL teams enter the stretch run to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we take a look at the four favorites in each conference and break them down.

Author:
Roy Larking
Publish date:
Feb 27, 2020

Following a busy trade deadline, NHL teams have shuffled the deck and the race to the Stanley Cup Playoffs is now in full flight. Most teams have fewer than 20 games remaining and this feature focuses on the NHL championship futures odds posted at the Westgate SuperBook. Along with defending champion St. Louis, there are several squads with a solid shot at claiming the 2019-20 Stanley Cup. Let’s check out the Eastern and Western Conference contenders.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FAVORITES

Tampa Bay Lightning (+500)

Currently trailing Boston, sitting second in Eastern Conference, Tampa Bay has won 23 of its last 29 games. Led by Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, who are both averaging more than a point per game, the Lightning rank first overall in goals scored. Backed by veteran goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who leads the league with 32 wins over 47 starts, Tampa Bay ranks in the top 10 on defense. Recent playoff history is a concern for bettors backing the Bolts.

After leading the NHL with 128 points, Tampa Bay was swept 4-0 by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the opening round of the playoffs last season. That was the latest in a string of disappointing playoff results, as the Lightning lost in the Eastern Conference Final to Pittsburgh in 2016 and Washington in 2018. That was preceded by a 4-2 Stanley Cup Final loss to Chicago back in 2015. A second straight Tampa Bay vs. Boston Atlantic Division final would not be a surprise.

Boston Bruins (+700)

Looking for another crack at the Cup after falling 4-3 to St. Louis in the Finals last season, Boston is the third overall favorite. Solid at both ends of the rink, Boston has hovered in the top three on defense and top six on offense for most of the season. With 18 games left on their schedule, the Bruins are 39-13-12 and lead the NHL with 90 points. Tenacious, gaining one point in 12 of 25 losses, the numbers would be better if the Bruins weren’t 0-7 in shootouts.

Home ice advantage in the playoffs is a big deal for all teams. Tampa Bay with 85 points and Washington with 84 points are trying to overtake Boston. The Bruins have won in bunches this season, as they have posted long winning streaks four times (5, 6, 6, 8). Prior to the Cup Final loss last year, Boston lost in the first round to Ottawa in 2017 and then lost in the second round to Tampa Bay in 2018.

Washington Capitals (+1200)

Third chalk in the East, Washington is tied as the fifth overall favorite to claim its second Stanley Cup over three seasons. The Capitals have struggled some recently and their Metropolitan Division lead is down to four points over Pittsburgh, who has one game in hand. Lighting the lamp regularly, Washington is third in the NHL with 222 goals through 63 games. Defense is a different story, as the Capitals sit bottom-nine in the Eastern Conference rankings.

Washington is currently 10-11-1 against division foes this season. Tied with most of them, the Capitals do not have a winning record against any Metropolitan teams, so the Caps will face a tough challenge to win the division. After losing in the second round, three years in a row, Washington defeated Vegas 4-1 to claim its franchise first Stanley Cup in 2018. Falling 4-3 to Carolina, during the opening round of the 2019 playoffs, the Capitals bowed out early last year.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+1200)

Tied with Washington, Pittsburgh rounds out the top four Stanley Cup favorites in the East. While they are still playing at a high level, time is running out for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to win a fourth Stanley Cup together. The Penguins close with a playoff style schedule, as 14 of their final 20 games are against Metropolitan opponents. Pittsburgh is 8-3-3 against division foes so far this season and seven games were decided in overtime.

Although overall scoring has dipped slightly in Pittsburgh this year, the Penguins have stepped up on defense as they are allowing the fifth-fewest goals overall. That’s largely due to Tristan Jarry (20-10-1) and Matt Murray (17-9-5), who are one of the best goaltending tandems in the league. Following back-to-back Cup wins in 2016 and 2017, Pittsburgh lost 4-2 in the second round to Washington in 2018 and were swept 4-0 by the Islanders in the first round last year.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FAVORITES

Vegas Golden Knights (+500)

Representing the Western Conference as top chalk, the Vegas Golden Knights are tied with Tampa Bay. Vegas has 17 games to play and lead the Pacific Division with 78 points. That race is very close as Vancouver and Edmonton are four behind and Calgary is six points back. A trio of Central Division teams: St. Louis (84), Colorado (81) and Dallas (80) lead the Western Conference standings. The Golden Knights were busy leading up to the NHL trade deadline.

Most notable, Alec Martinez and Robin Lehner will both play key roles down the stretch. Martinez was part of the L.A. Kings’ 2012 Cup-winning team and he adds some scoring punch as a second line defenseman. Lehner gives Vegas a solid one-two tandem in goal, and Marc-Andre Fleury will be able to take games off prior to the playoffs. Following their Stanley Cup loss during their inaugural season, Vegas lost 4-3 to San Jose in the first round last year.

St. Louis Blues (+1000)

Looking ready to defend their championship, St. Louis sits first in the Central with 84 points. Playing at a higher level right out of the gate this season, the Blues still have 18 games left on their schedule to top the 99 points they posted last year. Leading the Western Conference, the Blues are four points ahead of Dallas. St. Louis is 13-7-2 against Central Division foes, 13-4-4 versus Pacific Division teams and 11-6-4 against Eastern Conference clubs.

Those numbers suggest St. Louis can make another deep run in the playoffs. The Blues are fairly balanced, as they currently sit 11th overall on offense and 10th overall on defense. Posting a 16-2-10 record, in games that were decided by one goal, St. Louis has been outstanding in close contests so far this season. The Blues can also run up the score, as 16 of their 37 wins have been by three goals or more. St. Louis has five players with at least 48 points.

Colorado Avalanche (+1000)

Tied with St. Louis as second chalk in the West, Colorado is three points behind the Blues and one point ahead of Dallas in the Central Division. The Avalanche have played two fewer games than the Blues, and one less than the Stars, so Colorado could be in first overall once games in hand are played. Colorado is 9-8-2 against Central Division teams, but the numbers improve to 10-4-1 against the Pacific Division. Even better, the Avalanche are 18-6-4 against the East.

Colorado is 10-4-7 in one goal games and 18 of their 37 victories have been by three or more goals. The Avalanche sit fifth with 215 goals scored on offense and third overall with 168 goals allowed through 62 games. After qualifying just once over six seasons, Colorado will earn a playoff berth for the third year in a row. The Avalanche lost 4-2 in the first round to Minnesota in 2018 and then defeated Calgary 4-1 before losing 4-3 to San Jose in the second round last year.

Dallas Stars (+1200)

Rounding out the top four favorites in the West, Dallas is tied with Washington and Pittsburgh as sixth favorites overall. Leading the league on defense with just 160 goals allowed over 63 games, the Stars could use a boost on offense as they rank 24th overall with just 171 total goals scored. Tyler Seguin leads Dallas with 48 points, tied with Alex Pietrangelo who ranks fifth on the Blues, which places him 63rd amongst the top point leaders in the NHL.

Dallas is 12-7-2 against Central Division teams but improve to 10-3-2 versus the Pacific Division. The Stars’ numbers drop to 15-10-2 against Eastern Conference clubs. Dallas wouldn’t mind a first round matchup against Colorado, as the Stars swept the Avalanche 4-0 during the season series this year. The Stars defeated Nashville 4-2 in the first round of the postseason before falling 4-3 to St. Louis in Round 2 last season. Dallas last won the Cup in 1999.

Here are the Stanley Cup odds for the remaining teams: