Henry Ruggs III 2020 Touchdowns: Over/Under 4.5

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After being the first wide receiver taken in the 2020 draft, oddsmakers have the Henry Ruggs III's touchdown total at 4.5. Corey Parson and Jaime Eisner break down how they would bet Ruggs touchdown total. 

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Bill Enright: Henry Ruggs III was the first wide receiver taken in the 2020 NFL draft by the Raiders. Let's find out how many touchdowns he's going to have this year. For that, I bring on Corey Parson and Jaime Eisner, our fantasy and gambling analysts here at Sports Illustrated. Jaime, I'll start with you. Give me the rundown of what these sportsbooks think. How many times will Ruggs get into the end zone this year?

Jaime Eisner: Yeah, the current over under is 4.5 with slight juice to the under. It's a little bit flukier to predict touchdowns versus receiving yards, but it's going to be very interesting because Derek Carr has really suffered the last few years from not having a couple of top receiving options. With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree on the team, he threw at a 5% touchdown rate. That dropped to under 4% without them. I think now with Ruggs joining Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfroe, Darren Waller, that we'll see Carr at that 5% rate again, which means Ruggs doesn't even have to catch 20% of Carr's touchdowns to get over this total to get the 5. I like the over. 

Bill Enright: Corey, I'll go over to you. I mean, Jaime rattled off a couple of receivers, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfroe. Ruggs is going to step in from day one and be their wide receiver one. 4.5 touchdowns, it kind of seems on the low side, right?

Corey Parson: Exactly. And that's what makes this one kind of tricky to me. Because 4.5 with more or less even money to the over, you've got to figure a lot of money is on the over considering the fact that Darren Waller is the biggest threat in the receiving game and he's a tight end. So I think that Ruggs has a chance to come in here and go over that number. But it is a kind of tricky one. One thing I will say about this is, though, when you watch Ruggs play, when he gets the football in his hands, he's very dangerous. So it's not like he had a ton of long bombs. His YAC is very good. He's an entertaining player. He's excitement on every play. It could happen. I'll take the over. But I wouldn't bet on this one too heavy and looks like it could possibly be a trap.

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