2024 PGA Championship Bettors' Roundtable: Sleepers, Props, Best Bets and Our Picks to Win at Valhalla

Can anyone stop Scottie Scheffler? Is Valhalla Rory’s best shot? Our panel of golf writers and gambling experts break down the week at Valhalla.

In the spotlight: McIlroy, Scheffler and Koepka / USA Today

The 2024 PGA Championship has arrived, and the second major of the season features numerous juicy storylines and an elite field as the week kicks off at Valhalla CC outside of Louisville. Here to break it down we have once again convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Bob Harig, John Schwarb and Jeff Ritter, along with three betting experts from our partners at FanSided: Cody Williams, Iain MacMillian and Brian Giuffra. And for even more firepower, we have again added two heavy hitters from Rotowire’s fantasy golf and gambling coverage: Len Hochberg and Greg Vara. Onto Valhalla.

It’s currently Scottie Scheffler’s world and we’re just paying rent. He’s No. 1 in the world, fresh off wins in Augusta and Hilton Head, and at +400 on FanDuel the runaway favorite to win. (Rory McIlroy is the second choice at +1100.) At this point, do you just automatically include Scheffler on all of your tickets, betting pools and fantasy lineups?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: He’s impossible to ignore. The way he’s played for the better part of two years makes him an easy choice for almost anything related to the tournament. The only hesitation at this moment is the situation with his first child being born. How much has he practiced? How much of a distraction has this been? I’d be willing to bet that it doesn’t bother him at all and that having his mind off golf might be a good thing.

Brian Giuffra, FanSided: You have to be crazy not to consider Scheffler, but after essentially taking a month off from competitive golf, and presumably not practicing as much following the birth of his first child, +400 odds aren’t enticing enough for me to bet him. Iain and Cody mentioned the winner without Scheffler market, but I’m not touching that either. If I’m betting Scheffler, which I’m not, I would go with Top 5 finish at +110 odds at FanDuel. He was T-2 last year and T-4 in 2020. 

Len Hochberg, Rotowire: Bob makes some great points about where things stand in Scheffler’s life. Anyone who’s had a child, especially a first born, knows the uncertainty (or maybe mayhem is a better word) surrounding the situation. Putting that aside, if that’s possible, I’ll speak to the DFS side of things. Scheffler’s price is so high now – $13,200 on DraftKings, more than 25% percent of your budget – that it makes it an incredible challenge to submit a quality six-man lineup. It’s possible, because lesser guys could always surprise. But it won’t be easy.   

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Yes, I will more or less auto-add Scheffler to my fantasy lineups and pools, then build from there. And if you haven’t used him in a one-and-done pool yet this year, may as well strike now while he’s running hot.

Iain MacMillan, FanSided: From a betting pools and fantasy lineup perspective, I think you have to strongly consider including Scottie Scheffler. Even if he doesn’t bring his “A” game due to the birth of his first child, his average game is still better than the best the majority of golfers will bring this week. From a betting perspective, consider wagering on the “Winner Without Scottie” market.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Like that other big May event in Louisville, you have wheel this favorite into all your tickets. 

Greg Vara, Rotowire: My first inclination is to say yes, that he should be a part of any lineup in any format, but honestly, I’m not a fan of those short odds to win considering he’s coming into this week off a life changing event. He’s been machine-like over the past few years, but having a child can have a huge impact on anyone, and even though I believe he’ll be in the mix this week, but he’s by no means a lock to win. 

Cody Williams, FanSided: Echoing Iain’s take here, the best value in my estimation lies in the “winner without” market when it comes to Scottie Scheffler. But you could argue that means having Scheffler on your card should be the move for that very reason. If I’m looking at a market that essentially says “who will finish second to Scottie?”, then trying to double up with a look at Scheffler along with another play could be an optimistic attempt to win twice. 

Speaking of McIlroy, he returns to the site of his last major title, in 2014. Is the world No. 2 on your card or his 10-year major drought impossible to ignore?

Bob Harig: With McIlroy, it’s all about right now. A month ago, I’d have wondered. But winning the Zurich Classic with Shane Lowry was a boost and much of the heavy lifting was done by McIlroy in that victory. Then he won at Quail Hollow,  and returning to the site of a major victory certainly can’t hurt. He’s intriguing this week.

John Schwarb: I like his chances quite a bit this week but the drought has put a lock on my wallet. How much has DraftKings made in its lifetime off Rory major bets? I’m not contributing to that. But if he gets major No. 5 then the monkey is off his back and I’d look at him again in future majors. Eh, maybe not at Augusta.

Iain MacMillan: The problem is I’ve heard “Now is the perfect time for Rory to break his major drought” a dozen times before. I’m keeping him off my card until he proves he can do it.

Len Hochberg: No and no. He’s not No. 2. He’s No. 4 for me behind Scheffler, Koepka and Rahm. And his 10-year, um, anniversary surely will be a big storyline all week—as it will be for Jordan Spieth, who is seven years from his last major and, like McIlroy at the Masters, needs a PGA to complete his career grand slam.

Jeff Ritter: Rory has my attention, especially fresh off a win at the Wells Fargo, but you can’t really get Scheffler and McIlroy into a daily fantasy lineup. Even at his current odds, I still think Scheffler’s dominance is too much to ignore. 

Cody Williams: I’ve been a sucker for Rory so many times that I might just be prepared to take the approach of waiting until he finally gets No. 5 before betting him outright again in majors. Will I be able to hold firm to that strategy for an entire week before the first tee shot at Valhalla and after seeing his terrific week at Quail Hollow? Probably not, but at least I know that about myself.

Greg Vara: Not impossible to ignore only because of his major performances since that win, but I do like his form and if Scheffler shows any vulnerability early on this week, it could be anyone’s major to take, including McIlroy. While I think he’ll need to come in under the radar if he’s ever to win the Masters and complete the career grand slam, I do believe he could pull off a major win elsewhere by just coming in hot, like he appears to be this week.  

Brian Giuffra: I don’t have Rory on my card after losing a few hundred bucks betting Rory outrights the previous three years. I think he will win another few majors in the course of his career. But he does seem to tighten up at majors, and having the pressure of the 10-year drought brought up at this location won’t help. It’ll likely hurt. 

Golf’s majors offer prop bet opportunities galore. What’s one off-the-radar prop you like this week?

Bob Harig: Will the tournament have a playoff? There have been three PGAs at Valhalla, two of which ended in playoffs and one the three-hole aggregate won by Tiger Woods over Bob May. When Rory McIlroy won 10 years ago, a playoff appeared inevitable until the situation sorted itself on the last hole. It is a venue that seems to lend itself to tight finishes.

John Schwarb: The winning-score prop isn’t the sexiest bet on the board but I’ll take a long look at the under. Louisville is getting some rain this week, the field will take dead aim in softer conditions and the PGA of America isn’t as par-obsessed as the USGA. 

Iain MacMillan: The winner to be an American. You’re likely going to be on the chalk side to bet this, but it will still have some betting value. There are too many Americans peaking at the right time to not strongly consider this bet, including Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, and of course, Scottie Scheffler. The top non-American contenders are trending in the opposite direction. Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama just withdrew from the Wells Fargo while Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland haven’t had their best stuff in 2024. Your best bet would be Rory McIlroy snapping his 10-year major drought.

Len Hochberg: Here in California, they frown upon that sort of thing. However, if you want to play Scheffler but the odds are just too small for you, prop it up a bit and play Scheffler (or anyone) as a wire-to-wire winner. Second prop: Predict what round Talor Gooch will get into it with someone in the gallery (or the whole gallery). Just to be safe, don’t pick Rounds 3 or 4.

Cody Williams: If I can find the market, I’ll be parlaying Michael Block to miss the cut with almost anything for a little bit of added value. The feel-good (for a bit) story of the 2023 PGA Championship never developed Rory’s ability off of the tee, so I’m pretty confident that we won’t see him coming up with a top-15 finish at this major for the second straight year. 

Greg Vara: This one isn’t specific to the PGA Championship, but it’s Scottie Scheffler to win all four majors at 40-1. It seems insane that this number could be less than 100-1 for anyone, but let’s think about this. If he’s 4-1 this week, he’s heavily favored, right? If he wins and gets halfway there after this week, wouldn’t you take 40-1 to win the final two? Honestly, this might be the biggest hurdle of them all, not stylistically, but just from a human nature stand point. If he can win this soon after the birth of his child, he’s obviously got the mentality to win a grand slam.

Brian Giuffra: Make-miss cut is my favorite prop bet and I usually have at least one five-player parlay. I’ll bet on Phil Mickelson to miss the cut outright and probably include him in the parlay as well. We’ll see what the odds look like. 

Jeff Ritter: I haven’t seen it yet, but if you can get a prop on “lid unexpectedly slips off the Wanamaker during the trophy presentation,” I would be all over it. It’s happened before.

Tiger Woods is expected to play this week, in what will be his first event since he made the cut before finishing DFL at the Masters. Are there any Woods-related wagers or storylines that interest you this week? 

Bob Harig: Will he make the cut? At this point, it’s the biggest question. Anything beyond that and finishing the tournament is secondary to getting to the weekend.

Jeff Ritter: Agree with Bob – Cut Watch is the most compelling aspect to Tiger’s appearance this week. Incidentally, I would lean toward him missing it but am hoping to be proven wrong.

John Schwarb: Odds he gets paired with Justin Thomas? Kidding. A fun quick one with Tiger is always whether he’ll hit the first fairway Thursday (he frequently doesn’t), and the first hole at Valhalla is a long par-4 dogleg left that doesn’t have a runway-wide fairway.

Iain MacMillan: The way I like to bet on Tiger Woods is to take him to win his 3-ball group on Thursday. The first round is when he’s going to be at his healthiest and anything beyond that is a mystery. Due to how he usually finishes, his odds generally hold value in the opening round. I’d stay away from him after that.

Len Hochberg: Really, the only thing is will he make the cut. I’d pick no. Tiger/Valhalla factoid: He missed the cut by four strokes in 2014. To paraphrase every presidential candidate ever: Is Tiger better now than he was 10 years ago?

Cody Williams: Piggybacking off of everyone here a bit, we know Tiger will be at the best we’ll see him all week on Thursday and, depending on his tee time draw and weather, potentially decent on Friday as well. After the DFL Masters finish, eyeing first-round score props with a look to the under could be an interesting market with some value. But of course it depends on the number. 

Greg Vara: Yeah, the cut angle is really the only one of interest as I can’t imagine he’ll get anything done on the weekend. I had high hopes for him at the Masters and while I was happy to see him make the cut, I was obviously disappointed that he could do anything on the weekend. If he can’t keep up at Augusta on the weekend, he has little chance to do it here. 

Brian Giuffra: Tiger made me a fan of golf so I’m always a sucker for Tiger to make the cut bets. I like what Iain is saying about three-ball, but I’ll need to see what the odds are and who he’s playing against before making that bet. I bet him to make the cut at the Masters, but I might fade him this week. 

Defending a major title is one of the harder feats in golf but 2023 PGA champ Brooks Koepka has done it twice and comes in off a win at LIV Golf Singapore. Is he a good bet at +1600 (FanDuel) to do it again?

Bob Harig: Yes. Brooks is made for the majors, and his disappointing showing at the Masters is even more reason to believe he will be motivated to get back on top. His win in Singapore saw him sort out some swing issues and putting problems. Back before anyone knew who he was, Koepka tied for 15th at Valhalla in 2014.

Jeff Ritter: Love Koepka at those odds. He had a lousy week on LIV right before the Masters and carried it with him to Augusta. But with a recent win under his belt, he’s wheels up to Valhalla.

John Schwarb: Of course he is. But if you don’t love that price, consider betting him live at possibly a better one. In three of his five major wins, Koepka shot his highest score in the first round and twice (including last year) he was over par. 

Iain MacMillan: I’ve been on the wrong side of Brooks Koepka at the Majors too often, feeling like an idiot for not having any action on him when he jumps out to a lead on Thursday. I won’t let that happen again. The win at LIV Singapore was all I needed to see.

Len Hochberg: I know there’s a lot that goes into setting odds/prices/etc., but I have no idea how Koepka is not the second choice everywhere. The days of underestimating him are over for me. Which is why I was absolutely certain he’d play well at the Masters last month. Sigh.

Cody Williams: If anyone could make this look silly, it’s Brooks Koepka. But the LIV Singapore win actually makes me feel worse. We saw Dustin Johnson get hyped up after his LIV Tulsa win in the tournament prior to last year’s PGA Championship where he went on to finish T55. After Koepka’s middling performance at Augusta, I’m most likely just staying away from Brooks.

Greg Vara: Koepka was not on his game at Augusta, but he appears to be back in form heading into this week and he’s one of a few guys in the field that won’t be intimidated by Scheffler’s game. Koepka is a killer at the majors and I would not be surprised to see him win this week. Unlike Scheffler, a bet on Koepka provides some value. 

Brian Giuffra: I wrote a story about how I felt Brooks was undervalued last week. Since then, his odds have moved from +1600 to +1400 at FanDuel. I’m not saying oddsmakers read my article and made the adjustment, but I am saying I’m happy I bet him at +1600.  

A surprising number of Koepka’s LIV Golf mates got invitations to Valhalla, do any factor into your handicapping?

Bob Harig: Cam Smith. He’s played nicely the last few weeks as his Ripper GC all-Australian team has captured two LIV Golf team titles. He was also quietly on the fringe of contention at the Masters, where he tied for sixth.

Jeff Ritter: Smith can contend anywhere thanks to his short game. I also think Jon Rahm has a chip on his shoulder after a disappointing week at Augusta, and Bryson DeChambeau, after a mostly encouraging Masters, could be ready to contend for his second career major title. 

John Schwarb: How about Patrick Reed? He’s made nine major cuts in a row and was T12 at the Masters. You know the chip on his shoulder never leaves. But betting him is like playing the Don’t Pass Line in craps—you do it quietly and don’t gloat if it pays off.  

Iain MacMillan: People will be talking about Brooks Koepka’s win at Singapore, but Cameron Smith is also in strong form, finishing T2 at that event after a decent T14 finish at Adelaide. Also, how about Bryson DeChambeau? The T6 finish at the Masters is promising and his game would fit Valhalla well.

Len Hochberg: No matter one’s personal opinions of LIV and LIV golfers, you’d be foolish not to factor them in. Koepka, Cam Smith and Bryson DeChambeau are all in my RotoWire Power Rankings top 10 (shameless plug!). DeChambeau had been terrible at the Masters for years and just contended. He’s got two prior top-5s on PGA Championship tracks.

Cody Williams: We’re talking about a course in Valhalla where length is a premium and we’re coming off of a Masters where Bryson DeChambeau had his best career finish at Augusta, gained more than 8.0 strokes in ball striking, and also gained with the putter. The Big Golfer will be heard from at the PGA Championship. Cam Smith’s ability to scramble along with his recent form on LIV has me intrigued as well. 

Greg Vara: I just can’t give up on Cam Smith. I know he hasn’t performed well at the majors since his move to LIV, but he’s just too talented to keep underperforming. DeChambeau is on my radar as well, but I like to shy away from those with a lot of steam and I feel like he may have picked up too much attention after a solid showing at the Masters. I don’t know what it is about golf, but more often than not, golfers seem to fall short when expectations rise. 

Brian Giuffra: Talor Gooch to miss the cut just because. He’s playing well at LIV, so I wouldn’t tail this bet. But I will be dropping $5 on it. I bet on Smith to win the Masters and will certainly consider betting him this week. He was T-9 at last year’s PGA Championship so a Top 10 bet could be in play. 

Give us one long shot, odds 60-1 or greater, who could surprise, and give us one sentence why.

Bob Harig: Patrick Reed. He quietly had a strong Masters and he’s still got plenty of game. Reed’s lack of success as an individual with LIV Golf is a bit of a surprise but he’s motivated to do well outside of LIV.

Jeff Ritter: Denny McCarthy is at 130-1 on DraftKings and possesses an elite short game, where if the putts start dropping he could be a big factor.

John Schwarb: Russell Henley (75-1 at DraftKings) is a volatility play: his major history has plenty of MCs yet also six top-15s.

.Iain MacMillan: Alex Noren (110-1 at DraftKings) is someone who I think is extremely undervalued ahead of the PGA Championship. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour this season in total strokes gained and first in scrambling, a key metric for success at Valhalla. He has quietly been playing some fantastic golf of late.

Len Hochberg: Patrick Reed (100-1 on DrafKings). Just for his personal satisfaction of pissing everybody off.

Cody Williams: Min Woo Lee (65-1 on DraftKings) is entirely enigmatic and impossible to predict. But when you look at the profile of this course and his ability off of the tee, he looks to be a bit undervalued on the betting markets. 

Greg Vara: I’m with Cody on this one, Min Woo Lee has played pretty well this season, but we’ve yet to really see his upside like he flashed so often this past year. I think we’re overdue for some magic from this kid and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were a factor come Sunday. 

Brian Giuffra: Akshay Bhatia at +12000 at FanDuel. I usually don’t bet on rookies to win majors, but Bhatia won the 2018 Junior PGA Championship at Valhalla so he does have some experience here. More importantly, he’s great off the tee and on his approach, two areas that will be key at this course. I will be putting $10 on him to win outright and will also include him on my cut parlay. 

There can only be one: who wins the Wanamaker Trophy and why? 

Bob Harig: Rory McIlroy. It’s going to happen one of these days. McIlroy is too good to not have another major after all this time. He’s recent form and a course he likes make a difference. 

Jeff Ritter: Through nearly five months, we’re right on the cusp of witnessing a historic season, and Scottie Scheffler has a chance to win again, which would send this conversation into a new stratosphere and put the world on Grand Slam Watch. I like him to fend off two LIV guys, Koepka and Rahm, to win the Wanamaker.

John Schwarb: Max Homa is trending in the big ones: T10 at last year’s British Open, T3 last month at the Masters. He’s had the game but needed the self-belief. And at 35-1 (DraftKings) he could make a lot of his fans some sweet summer cash.  

Iain MacMillan: Nobody has picked Xander Schauffele and been wrong more often than I have, but this truly feels like the time for him to finally win a major tournament. He’s been playing some of the best golf of his career and his short game has been on fire. I can’t pass up picking him once again at 14-1.

Len Hochberg: Keep moving, nothing to see here. Scottie Scheffler.

Cody Williams: In record time, I talked myself into Rory McIlroy already. The 10-year major drought ends in poetic fashion at the place where he won his last. 

Greg Vara: It’s hard to pick against Scottie Scheffler at this point. Just because we haven’t seen him in a couple weeks doesn’t mean he’s lost his game and even though he’s had to adjust to life with a little one, something tells me he’ll be just fine out on the course. 

Brian Giuffra: I talked about Brooks winning earlier and I think he’ll be right there, but I’m going in a different direction here and picking Collin Morikawa. First of all, I think +2500 odds at FanDuel for a two-time major champion who’s won this tournament before are too long. He should be closer to +1800. Second, he’s playing outstanding golf. He made two major mistakes on Sunday at Augusta that cost him that title. Other than that he was outstanding. He hasn’t won this season, but I think it’s just a matter of time. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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