2026 RBC Heritage Betting Models, Picks: Accuracy and Approach Play Rule at Harbour Town

The post-Masters PGA Tour stop is a thinking man's course and our expert likes players who can appreciate the art.

Jordan Spieth at RBC Heritage | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

The decision to have the RBC Heritage as a signature event the week after the Masters remains a weird one, but it does mean that many of the best in the world will be teeing it up at Harbour Town this week. Rory McIlroy won’t be bringing the green jacket to Hilton Head, but we’ll see many of the contenders from last week at Augusta making the trip. However, I’m always wary of players coming off a stressful week at a major in an event like this. 

As for Harbour Town itself, the Pete Dye design (with the help of Jack Nicklaus and later Davis Love III) was established in 1967 and has hosted the RBC Heritage, by a variety of names, since 1969. The par-71 course is among the shortest courses on the PGA Tour at 7,191 yards, putting an emphasis on accuracy and approach play most notably, but also with the need to know your way around the greens. 

It’s a much different test than the one we just got at Augusta, but a fun one nonetheless. So let’s dive into the most critical stats for the week before a full breakdown of the model and my picks for the week. 

Key Stats for Harbour Town

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

As mentioned, the shorter golf course puts an extra premium on approach play this week to find scoring opportunities. And these guys are ball-striking their faces off right now. 

1. Collin Morikawa (+1.073)
2. Akshay Bhatia (0.942)
3. Austin Smotherman (0.905)
4. Xander Schauffele (0.904)
5. Jordan Spieth (0.852)

Strokes-gained on short courses

There’s an art to playing courses like this well. Yes, being accurate and good on approach is part of it, but it’s also about being smart and playing wisely throughout the round. Thus, a history on short courses is appropriate to weigh heavily. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.853)
2. Justin Thomas (1.401)
3. Patrick Cantlay (1.329)
4. Jason Day (1.267)
5. Sungjae Im (1.050)

Fairways gained over the last 24 rounds

But again, this is an accuracy test as well. While some of the longer hitters will be able to club down, we’re still just looking at the guys who have been able to find themselves in the short grass more often than the field. 

1. Andrew Putnam (+1.987)
2. Lucas Glover (1.378)
3. Russell Henley (1.376)
4. Corey Conners (1.361)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (1.277)

Greens gained over the last 24 rounds

We’re not done, though. In addition to overall approach play, we also have to look at guys who are able to attack some of the smaller greens on the PGA Tour. So a look at GIR gained over the field in recent events matters a great deal. 

1. Ryo Hisatsune (+1.548)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (1.317)
3. John Keefer (1.190)
4. Jordan Smith (1.076)
5. Cameron Young (1.025)

RBC Heritage model rankings this week

The model, as some of you probably predicted, starts with a heavy, heavy dose of strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%). We then get a bit smaller and balanced with fairways gained, greens gained, and strokes-gained short courses (10% each) to give us a better picture. There is also a look at a couple of short proximity buckets at 150-175 yards (8%) and 125-150 yards (7%) before we also have course history at Harbour Town (7%). It’s then a balanced mix of strokes-gained around-the-green, strokes-gained tee to green, strokes-gained putting on Bermuda and scrambling (5% each) before we look at comp course history at Colonial, Pebble Beach, PGA West Stadium Course and TPC River Highlands (2% each). Bake that all in, and these are the top 10 in the model this week. 

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Russell Henley
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Ludvig Åberg
7. Matt Fitzpatrick
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Jordan Spieth
10. Daniel Berger

2026 RBC Heritage picks

Matt Fitzpatrick +1650 (DraftKings)

There was a lot of reason to like Matt Fitzpatrick last week at Augusta, and a T18 finish was a bit lackluster. At the same time, the numbers still show a player who is playing extremely well, and more importantly, extremely well to succeed at Harbour Town, a place where he won just recently in 2023. 

Fitz is seventh in strokes-gained approach and first in strokes-gained tee to green over the last 24 rounds, while also being top-20 in short-game categories. Even better, he’s also fifth in fairways gained and second in greens gained over that same time span. He’s striking the ball beautifully and accurately right now, and it’s obviously a place where he knows how to find a spot atop the leaderboard. 

Frankly, it would also feel very on-brand for Fitzpatrick to let people down at Augusta and bounce back to win at the RBC Heritage. 

Jordan Spieth +3100 (DraftKings)

Speaking of past winners at Harbour Town, I’m encouraged by Jordan Spieth. Did he come through for me at the Masters? Not even close. Is he still a rollercoaster of emotions? 100%. At the same time, the profile and history are worthwhile.

Not only is he fifth in strokes-gained approach, but he’s ninth in strokes-gained tee to green, 13th in scrambling, and, despite what we saw at Augusta, a positive putter on Bermuda while ranking eighth in greens gained as well. 

The big concern for Spieth is off the tee as he remains a bit squirrely. However, that’s in tandem with the fact that his lack of overall length will be somewhat mitigated at Harbour Town. With all that working for him, I like his chances to make some real noise this week. 

Daniel Berger +9400 (DraftKings)

Berger, prior to his injuries, had been putting together a nice streak at Harbour Town. He returned last season and kept it going with a T3 finish at this tract. And now there are signs of good things still to come, at the RBC Heritage and beyond potentially. 

Berger is sixth in strokes-gained approach while being fourth in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds. The putting isn’t out of this world, but he’s playing well enough and positively on Bermuda, while also ranking inside the top 20 in both proximity buckets we’re looking at this week. 

He’s quite clearly comfortable when he comes to Hilton Head, and this figures to be the right week for him to make a little noise at the top of the leaderboard, much more so than a 94-to-1 number would have you believe. 

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