2022 Masters newsmakers: Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Cameron Smith and Scottie Scheffler.

2022 Masters Bettors' Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers and Best Bets for Augusta National

Who looks ready for a green jacket? Who will disappoint? Our panel of gambling experts, fantasy players and golf writers to break down the field.

Author:
Jeff Ritter, Gary Van Sickle and Alex Miceli
Publish date:
Apr 4, 2022

Golffile

Who looks ready for a green jacket? Who will disappoint? Our panel of gambling experts, fantasy players and golf writers to break down the field.

A field of 90 players is set to converge on Augusta National Golf Club for the 86th edition of the Masters Tournament. Phil Mickelson is out. Tiger Woods is the ultimate question mark as he works he way back from injury. And several of the top players are peaking at the perfect time. (A few are also struggling. More on that shortly.)

We've once again convened a roundtable of veteran golf writers along with golf gambling and fantasy experts from Rotowire.com to offer their unique insight and handicap this year's field. Joining this edition: Rotowire's Len Hochberg and Greg Vara, and Morning Read's Alex Miceli, Gary Van Sickle and Jeff Ritter. On to the questions:

The Masters has reams of data on players, holes and statistics to chronicle all the history that has been made there. What are the key attributes you look for in a Masters contender?

Len Hochberg, Rotowire: Strokes gained: approach more than anything else. Also wedge play. And putting. So basically everything. But something that can't be quantified is more important than any of those: Can they handle the moment? Mental toughness. There is no bigger stage in golf than Augusta National on Sunday afternoon, and if you can't keep your hands from shaking it doesn't matter that you have your perfect distance to the green.

Gary Van Sickle, Morning Read: The stats don't measure who can read and handle Augusta's big-breaking putts with supersonic speed. It takes a putting artist like Jordan Spieth or Ben Crenshaw or, in lieu of that, someone who's phenomenal at chipping and pitching around the green like Patrick Reed, Spieth or two guys not known for putting, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh. I'll take the guy who can get up-and-down and save par. Zach Johnson was that guy. So was Jose Maria Olazabal. So is Cameron Smith.

Greg Vara, Rotowire: Unfortunately the key attribute I look for is not measurable as there's no metric for it ... yet. The key to winning this week is the space between the ears and though you can't put a number on it, there are certain guys that are built to win big events. I think we know who those guys are, for the most part. (It also doesn't hurt to have a solid short game.)

Alex Miceli, Morning Read: Short game is key. And not just wedge play or sand game, but the combination with a strong flat stick. With wider-than-average fairways, proper angles for hitting the greens is key, but when you miss, hopefully in the correct places, getting up-and-down is what makes the difference.

Jeff Ritter, Morning Read: I like a mix of current form and course history, blended with a few metrics like strokes gained off the tee and around the green. Because the Masters is the only major with the same host venue each year, course history obviously deserves more weight here than in any other major — but I also think course history as a Masters predictor is more significant than at any other weekly Tour stop. Experience and comfort really matter here.

Tiger Woods is a self-declared "game-time decision" this week. Will you go anywhere near him in fantasy games or betting pools?

Miceli: Nah, Tiger may be the GOAT, but the field this week has little concerns that Woods is around. He's been on the shelf for more than a year.

Vara: I will not go near him this week. It would be a great story if he were to play well — heck, it's a great story that he's playing at all. But I can't imagine his game is tournament-ready. Plus, you aren't getting any value in the betting markets, because the public will bet him down. Same issue in fantasy circles, as the public wants to see Tiger play well, so they'll drive up ownership. I doubt you can sneak Woods in as a sleeper anywhere.

Van Sickle: Absolutely. I already dropped $5 on him at 50-1 odds, because I'm a high roller. The only thing better than a miracle Tiger win (again) is being able to say, "Yeah, I had him." His realistic chances? We don't have enough information to know. We do know that he likes doing what others think is impossible. Unless he quits golf, I'll never write him off.

Ritter: I won't go near him in any pool that I'm serious about. But like Gary mentioned, it's fun to hold a ticket for the best story of the week, and a Tiger victory would require its own Netflix documentary.

Hochberg: I actually think Tiger can make the cut. Putting aside the older former champs and amateurs, about two-thirds of the field, maybe more, will get to the weekend. Is Tiger Woods better than 25-30 of those other guys in this field, even after not playing for real in almost 18 months? On this course in the magnitude of this tournament, absolutely. But it's hard to expect much more than sticking around for the weekend, and in the betting and fantasy markets you always have to pay more for Tiger. Pass.

Give us one favorite (25-1 odds or less) you think could disappoint this week.

Van Sickle: Scottie Scheffler has got to feel like he took too many sips on a Slurpee and got brainfreeze after his three wins, rise to No. 1 and a draining seven matches in five days at the Match Play. If he can't get ready, I wouldn't blame him. Would I still bet him? Well, it would be dumb not to.

Vara: Viktor Hovland (18-1) has managed to play relatively well in his two starts at the Masters (T21 and T32), but I can't imagine his short game will hold up through four rounds at Augusta until he addresses his issues around the green. The rest of his game is just fine and he's bound to win a major sometime soon, but there's just too much trouble when missing the greens at Augusta for anyone that can't trust his short game.

Ritter: Collin Morikawa's form is shaky, really for the first time in a couple of years, and this doesn't feel like the week he's going to find it. And I now see him down to 30-1, but I'm still off Bryson DeChambeau. Augusta is a "feel" track, and his analytics-based mindset is a poor fit.

Miceli: If defending champion Hideki Matsuyama does play, he appears to be very suspect as he's battling a bad neck. If Matsuyama doesn’t play, or you believe picking him is a little like cheating, let's look at Patrick Reed, who has done nothing for a while.

Hochberg: It's hard to believe that a top-5 golfer can be dead-last in an important statistical category, but Viktor Hovland ranks 210th and last in strokes gained: around-the-green. That tells us how utterly elite Hovland is with other parts of his game. But you need your wedges to succeed this week, and that's a big ask for Hovland.

The Masters has a strange tendency to produce aging contenders. What 40-something do you think could surprise and find himself on the leaderboard deep into Sunday afternoon?

Van Sickle: Do you mean other than guys whose names rhyme with Liger? Louis Oosthuizen is the guy who just won't go away. He was pesky in last year's majors, notably the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, and he has a fine track record at Augusta. The year he lost to Bubba Watson in a playoff, he was just unlucky. Louis can still hang.

Hochberg: His initials are not T.W. His initials aren't P.M. (oops!) I'm gonna be P.C. on this one: Paul Casey. Sure, we don't know the situation with the back injury that that derailed him at the Match Play. But he seemed kinda chipper on Twitter the other day saying he was looking forward to the Masters. Casey has made 15 Masters starts with eight top-25s, five of them doubling as top-10s.

Ritter: Justin Rose has finished second twice and cracked the top-10 last year after leading early. It feels like he's always in the picture here, and even though his current form isn't great, Augusta seems to be a place where he often finds it.

Vara: I think this tendency used to be more prevalent when you had past champions like Jose Maria Olazabal, Bernhard Langer and Fred Couples closer to their primes, or at least within two decades of their primes, but with those guys well past their better days, there aren't that many good options in this category any longer. Paul Casey would have been my first choice here, but back issues are unpredictable, so I'll side with Adam Scott, who is a past champion. I know, it's not much to go on, but again, it's not the best 40+ crop.

Miceli: Louie Oosthuizen is 39, which is close enough for me to 40. He should already be wearing a green jacket if not for a little bad luck.

Any other sleepers (60-1 odds or longer) you’re eyeing?

Vara: Abraham Ancer (70-1), who I realize just withdrew this past week at the Valero Texas Open, but as of now he's still listed in the field. If not for his withdrawal in Texas, his odds would be much lower, so we're getting some value baked into this number. Ancer played well at the WGC Match Play a couple weeks back and he fared well at Augusta in his first two tries there. There's certainly some risk with this play given that we don't know exactly why he pulled out of the Valero, but there's risk with any long shot. That's why we get long odds.

Miceli: Gary Woodland has one major on his shelf, but since his U.S. Open win at Pebble Beach he's been lacking in the winner column. His game seems to be back and he is close to hitting on all cylinders.

Van Sickle: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 130-1, is a stick. So is Seamus Power, also 130-1. Sepp Straka recently won the Honda Classic and pretty much shot the apple off the Bear's head. At 250-1, I could use him to pay for new carpeting upstairs at my house.

Ritter: Tyrrell Hatton is interesting at 80-1. He sort of reminds me of Jon Rahm in that he burns so hot it sometimes holds him back, especially in majors. But his tee-to-green game is a great fit for Augusta, and he's riding a stretch of good play, including a runner-up at Bay Hill. At that price, I'm in. I also like Joaquin Niemann if he stays above 60-1, as he is now.

Hochberg: I don't honestly see anyone currently 60-1 or longer winning the green jacket. Patrick Reed (65-1) and Webb Simpson (100-1) have a great history here but are so far off their games right now. One guy I think can have a sneaky good week is Si Woo Kim, who's 100-1. He's had three top-25s in five Masters starts. He seems to have stabilized alongside caddie Brian Vranesh. In 14 starts this season, Kim has seven top-25s and just missed two others. And he was in position on Sunday to make a run at winning the Valero.

What’s your favorite hole at Augusta National?

Hochberg: Wow, you're gonna Sophie's Choice me? Not nice! Well, it's 12, and not because 12 in and of itself is such a great hole, though it is. I perk up that much more when the leaders get to 12 because it's the entry point to so much drama ahead — the pivotal par-5s on 13 and 15, the par-3 16th, where hopes can die (see: Schauffele, Xander), the brutish 18th, where needing a par to win the Masters makes it one of the hardest holes in golf. No. 12 is great and reminds us that so many more great holes are coming. That hole also changed everything for Tiger Woods in 2019.

Van Sickle: The 10th. To stand by the 10th green and look back uphill toward the clubhouse is to stand in awe. Not because of the gorgeous flowering trees but because from there, you see the 105-foot drop the 10th hole makes from tee-to-green. It is remarkable. And then the 11th goes farther downhill to Amen Creek. It looks like a great place for an Olympic luge run, an even better place for an iconic golf course.

Vara: No. 3. I love the precision needed on this surprisingly difficult short par 4. At just 350 yards, you'd think the pros would try to muscle a driver up near the green, but that's rarely if ever the play. You absolutely have to approach this green from the correct spot or you're in trouble, which means an iron off the tee. But again, you're not safe until you're on the green and in the correct spot. This hole has trouble written all over it regardless of the conditions.

Miceli: The par 5-13th. Name a par 5 that is short, less than 500 yards, that can scare the living bejabbers out of you and ruin a perfect day.

Ritter: The easy choice is behind the 12th tee in Amen Corner — that place has a heartbeat. But I'll answer this one another way: the best spot to watch a lot of golf, especially down the stretch on Sunday, is from the grandstands left of the 15th green. You get a clear look at players hitting their approaches to the par-5 and holing their putts. Then you look to the left, and you can watch them play the entire par-3 16th and tee off on 17. The top couple of rows are reserved for media, and, yes, we are spoiled and, yes, you can find me there this Sunday afternoon.

There can only be one: who wins the 2022 Masters and why?

Hochberg: My preseason pick was Cameron Smith. I wasn't thrilled that he won the Players because it'll be a pretty hard double to win a Players and Masters in back-to-back starts. But he's had two top-5s at Augusta, is a little longer off the tee than many people realize and, most importantly, his short game (wedge/putter) is the best in golf right now.

Miceli: Jordan Spieth, no real reason. It’s not like he is playing lights out or his game has shown some real signs — it’s just a hunch. With such a stacked field, it’s almost impossible to have a favorite.

Vara: Scottie Scheffler. I know, he can't keep this up, right? Scheffler's recent run of success would go from incredible to insane if he were to win this week, but I think we might be witnessing something special with this guy. His form is unquestioned heading into this week and his track record here is good enough to make me think he can pull it off. Scheffler has finished inside the top-20 in his each of his two starts here and I dare say he's a better golfer now than he was during his either of his previous two starts. I'll also throw in that none of the elite players are peaking right now either, which leaves the door wide open for his first major

Van Sickle: Cameron Smith. No one has won the Players and the Masters in the same year. Yeah, well no one wearing a mullet had ever won a Players, either. Smith is Jordan Spieth 2.0, though his iron play isn't up to Spieth's remarkable 2015 standard. The Mullet can out-chip and out-putt the field. He's already been a Masters runner-up so he's been through the crucible. Does a mullet go with a green jacket? Get serious. A mullet goes with anything.

Ritter: As so often happens this time of year, a lot of great storylines are converging on Augusta all at once and it feels like we're in for another epic Masters. A Rory McIlroy win to complete his career Slam would be sweet. A Scottie Scheffler win would continue an all-time heater. If Tiger somehow wins his sixth jacket it might burn Augusta to the ground and melt Twitter. I have a feeling we're in for a very worthy champion, this time a guy with a major win, a pedigree as a World No. 1, and a hunger to win more majors, as he has just one on his shelf so far: Jon Rahm has the mix of tee-to-green prowess, Augusta good vibes and solid (though not spectacular) current form. I think this year might be his time.