2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.
Golf handicappers love to compare courses when it comes to predicting success in a tournament. For most events that is a fine strategy, but this week I believe there’s a better approach. Instead of matching courses, I’m looking at similar formats! The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a special tournament on the PGA Tour. World-class players and celebrities gather at one of the most iconic venues in all of golf.
The field of 156 players will compete alongside a partner playing three different courses for the first 54 holes. Then the top 60 and ties will return to Pebble Beach for Sunday’s conclusion on the picturesque PGA Tour playground.
- Five of the top 30 players in the world are competing as well as 19 of the top 100.
- The purse is $9 million and the man in first place on Sunday will receive a check for $1.62 million.
Before we get to the three courses, let’s take a little look at history. The average winning score over the last 10 years in 18 under par. As you will read, the courses are very score-able. Here’s a quick breakdown of the three layouts.
Pebble Beach Golf Links (two rounds)
- Par 72, 6,972 yards
- The tiny target greens are covered in Poa annua grass and decorated by bunkers, 116 in all
- Set directly on the Pacific Ocean, the course can be bombarded by the elements.
Spyglass Hill Golf Course (one round)
- Par 72, 7,041 yards
- This course has seven par 4s under 430 yards, 62 bunkers and more Poa to putt on.
- This course tends to be the toughest for scoring. With parts of the layout also exposed to weather conditions, catch this tee time on the wrong day and the week is over.
Monterey Peninsula Country Club (one round)
- It's a 36-hole facility and for the AT&T they use the Shore Course. This also the newest addition to the Pebble rotation.
- Par 71, 6,934 yards
- The course logo is a dragon and can breathe a little fire with 130 bunkers and very challenging green complexes.
Player focus is extremely important in this setting. Just like The American Express a couple of weeks ago, these are long, distracting rounds. Professionals must accommodate their amateur partner, play in foursomes and deal with the weather. Temperatures predicted are seasonal, reaching the low 60s during the day. Wind looks calm by Monterey standards, staying in the low teens. There is rain slated for Thursday night and Sunday.
This region has received 20 inches of rain YTD according to course superintendents. That marine climate, wet conditions and slow walking will truly produce a test for these competitors. That’s the key, outside of the skill set required to contend, they must also have the mindset needed to remain sharp during such long days where their attention will truly be measured.
So, much like the Amex, past success does determine future results at the AT&T!
Since 2006, each winner has finished top 21 or better in the AT&T prior to winning. Over the last 10 editions, the champion competed in the Pro-Am at least three times prior to taking home the trophy. Beyond that Pro-Am patient mindset, each player faces a very specific set of challenges. If we look back over that decade, each of those winners gained on average four strokes against the field on approach and another three shots against the field putting those Poa annua greens.
- This tournament is a wedge fest. More than 65% of the holes they play over four days will be approached from 75-150 yards.
- 68% of the par 4s play under 430 yards.
- Proximity is the key to contending alongside a hot putter. The average green size at Pebble Beach is approximately 3,500 square feet.
- Look how Tom Hoge did it last year; he gained four strokes against the field on approach and another 5.3 strokes with the flatstick.
There’s the blueprint for contention this week. Success alongside the Pacific Ocean is determined by controlling those wedges and taking advantage of every putt you can make inside 10 feet. Don’t forget, even with these skills, you will still need Pro-Am patience.
- In 2022, Tom Hoge finished second at the Amex and won at Pebble Beach.
- In 2019, Phil Mickelson recorded the same second place in Palm Springs and won in Monterey.
There are countless other examples where the AT&T winner showed success a couple of weeks prior at The American Express. To close this week’s prediction preview, here’s my Win, Place, and Show.
Seamus Power (left) and Joel Dahmen have had success at Pebble Beach and are solid mid-odds picks.
USA TODAY Sports
Picks to Win: Seamus Power, Joel Dahmen
It is a week for partners. Therefore, I am going to share two men I think can win. Seamus Power (+2200 at SI Sportsbook) led this tournament last year by five strokes after two rounds. He did it with efficient coastal wedge play and a hot putter. After his early season win in Bermuda, I believe he comes back and has great success here again. Like Seamus, Joel Dahmen (+3300 SI) is just as good with a wedge. His average proximity on approaches from 75-150 yards is just under 18 feet. His sixth-place finish last year and two top 14 finishes in the last three years at the AT&T show he consistently contends.
Last week's pick: Xander Schauffele finished a solid T13, but nine shots behind winner Max Homa.
Place: Tom Hoge
Our defending champion, Tom Hoge, is a threat to win again. I’m taking him to finish in the top 20 (+115 SI). The best wedge approach player on tour has fond memories of Monterey’s 17-mile drive. From 75-150 yards, he leads the field in proximity to the hole with an average under 15 feet. No venue favors these approach shots more than Pebble’s course rotation. Take him and know he has the skill to win back-to-back, let alone finish in the top 20.
Last week's pick: Taylor Montgomery faded with a 75-75 final two rounds to finish T31.
Showdown: NeSmith over Pendrith
The best showdown matchup I could find pairs two players with what looks like similar ball striking skills. If you just look at the raw numbers and don’t dig deeper, you will assume Matthew NeSmith and Taylor Pendrith would play this tournament the same. Except, where Pendrith excels off the tee, NeSmith is an excellent wedge player. Matthew also putts very well on Poa greens. Take those two traits and play him to win this match on DraftKings (+100).
Last week: J.J. Spaun and Cam Davis both missed the cut, but Spaun was seven shots better to keep Keith unbeaten in his 2023 matchups.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Jordan Spieth +1000
Matt Fitzpatrick +1000
Viktor Hovland +1100
Maverick McNealy +1800
Tom Hoge +1800
Andrew Putnam +2200
Seamus Power +2200
Justin Rose +2500
Keith Mitchell +2800
Joel Dahmen +3300
Matt Kuchar +3300
Denny McCarthy +3500
Taylor Pendrith +4000
Thomas Detry +4000