2023 Fortinet Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Silverado Resort and Spa
How can Justin Thomas possibly benefit from playing in the Fortinet Championship? Believe it or not, I think he can and will make a solid showing at the Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course. Thomas has five starts in Napa and three top-eight finishes. The tree-lined landscape is a perfect preview for the accuracy test that awaits him over in Rome at Marco Simone.
It’s disappointing that more of Team USA has not joined him and two-time defending champion Max Homa. Outside of two vice captains (Webb Simpson, Stewart Cink) and the captain (Zach Johnson), the rest of our American side is sitting out after the Tour Championship until the biannual matches. Thomas, who has been inconsistent in 2023, gains a fresh start at the Fortinet.
The North Course is a par-72 layout covering 7,123 yards. The scorecard shows four par-3s and par-5s and 10 par-4s. Three of those 3s are among the four toughest holes relative to par on the course. The four par-5s have an average birdie rate of 39% and nine of the 10 par-4s are under 440 yards in length. It’s no surprise the average winning score at Silverado over the past decade is 17 under par.
With wedges often in their hands for approaches, the pros will go low at Silverado.
Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Tournament officials and the PGA Tour have made some significant changes to the scorecard for the 2023 edition. Ten holes have been changed from the 2022 routing. All 18 holes are the same, but they will now be played in the following order: front nine 1-7, 12-13 and back nine 14-17, 8-11, 18. What was a mediocre finish is now far more exciting. The signature par-3 11th is now the 17th and the players will face three par-5s in the final seven holes.
The field of 156 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 3 holes. Those weekend warriors will compete for a $8.4 million purse and first-place check of $1.5 million. The group lacks a little luster as only two players in the top 25 (21 of the top 100) of the OWGR are competing. Except for six players who played in the BMW Championship, most of the group hasn’t played in over a month.
The keys to contending at Silverado’s North Course are fundamental. Take advantage of length off the tee, be precise with your wedges and convert opportunities with your flatstick. The last five winners have gained an average of 3.6 strokes off the tee, 3.5 strokes on approach, and 3.5 strokes putting against the field. Being well-rounded in Napa is important. The tree-lined landscape creates a tight look off the tee, but the North Course ranks in the bottom five for the penalty for missing fairways. I’m favoring a power player who is aggressive with their driver. Max Homa, Cam Champ, Kevin Tway and Stewart Cink are the last four winners. Each has serious ball speed off the tee and uses a driver-focused game plan.
Nearly 50% of approach shots are played from 150 yards and in. The more you use that driver, the closer you can get. The greens average 5,400 square feet in size, a little smaller than average by PGA Tour standards. Our winner will hit 56 to 60 of them over 72 holes and create 30-plus birdie chances inside 25 feet. Greens in regulation are important, but proximity carries even more weight. You’ll need 20 (or more) birdies to win. Our Win, Place and Show will reflect the best proximity players in the field.
The recent winners have not gone nuclear with their putting. They have been consistent and capitalized on the short holes. Silverado has plenty of holes where scrambling is important. Most only refer to short game when saving par is needed. Those same skills help you score on short par-4s and reachable par-5s. Getting up and down for birdie from under 50 yards is a tangible talent at Silverado.
Homa has won for two straight years with excellent wedge play. Remember he chipped in to win a year ago on the final hole. With fantastic weather in the forecast and a simple recipe for success, the weekend golf should be very engaging. The new format of the fall series really creates another sense of urgency. Only six events remain after the Fortinet to earn your 2024 Tour card. I expect another electric finish in Napa and these guys are certainly going to play a big part in it.
Win: Cam Davis
Our Win pick at the Tour Championship was Viktor Hovland. Let’s make it two in a row with Cam Davis. The young Australian star is one of six players who played at the BMW Championship. He has three top 10s in his last four starts and the ball striking has been elite. An excellent wedge player, he’s ranked second in strokes-gained tee to green and scores often on par-4s. His blend of power and finesse is perfect for the North Course. Davis doesn’t have to play in this event yet he chose to. That tells me he feels a win in his near future. Take Cam Davis (+2000 SI Sportsbook) to win the Fortinet Championship.
Last pick: Winner! We tabbed Viktor Hovland to win the Tour Championship and he cruised by five shots.
Place: Justin Thomas
The noise surrounding Justin Thomas to close the season was deafening. Fast-forward six weeks, and JT knows he’s going to Rome. The locker room leader loses that pressure and finally starts to relax and play world-class golf again. Thomas has five starts at Silverado and three top-eight finishes. He’ll post one more good result this week in advance of the Ryder Cup. Take Justin Thomas to finish Top 20 (-110 SI Sportsbook).
Last pick: We took Sungjae Im to finish top 10 in Atlanta but he came in T24.
Showdown: Cam Davis over Beau Hossler
In six starts at the Fortinet, Beau Hossler has not cracked the top 15. The main reason is ball striking. He’s ranked north of 100th in proximity to the hole and doesn’t crack the top 35 tee-to-green in this weak field. Cam Davis is one of the favorites and playing well. Take Cam Davis over Beau Hossler head-to-head (-110 SI Sportsbook).
Last pick: Winner! We had Xander Schauffele over Tom Kim in a matchup and Schauffele was runner-up at East Lake.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Max Homa +700
Justin Thomas +1400
Sahith Theegala +1400
Cam Davis +2000
Beau Hossler +2200
Stephan Jaeger +2200
Eric Cole +3000
J.J. Spaun +3300
Andrew Putnam +3500
Brendon Todd +3500
Lucas Herbert +3500
Nick Hardy +4000
Akshay Bhatia +4500
Alex Noren +4500
Justin Suh +4500