2023 Hero World Challenge: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Albany
Six of the seven winners of the Hero World Challenge had a top-5 finish in one of their three previous starts coming into Albany. The question we have been asking all autumn: Does recent play matter? History at Tiger’s Hero tells us ... yes, it does!
Viktor Hovland is your two-time defending champion and poised for a third. The fourth ranked player in the world just finished runner-up in Dubai at the DP World Tour Championship two weeks ago. Scottie Scheffler has not competed since the Ryder Cup in Rome. These two are the favorites this week in Nassau, Bahamas.
The Albany Club is an exclusive golf community nestled just outside of Adelaide Village on the southwest corner of Nassau Island. Encircled in sand dunes, the Ernie Els design displays a scorecard of five par-3s, five par-5s and eight par-4s. In seven editions of the Hero at Albany, the average winning score is 19 under par. Weather is the only real deterrent of low scores and the forecast looks promising.
Tiger Woods and 19 other PGA Tour stars take on Albany and the forecast is promising all week.
David Cannon/Getty Images
Temperatures are predicted in the low 80s with little chance of rain throughout the four days. We will see some wind out of the east and southeast. The breeze should blow in the high teens with gusts over 20 mph. On the island this is fairly calm, but this direction creates several crosswind holes. The average green size at Albany is 4,500 square feet, and hitting these targets will get challenging in the afternoon when the wind picks up.
Albany has over 50 acres of fairway to land the tee ball. Length is favored over accuracy off the tee. We saw at Sea Island how much of a weapon the modern driver can be. Dominate the field with you tee shots and you’re well on you way to winning. Look at the last couple of winners at Albany: Rahm, Stenson and Hovland. All three can differentiate from this elite field with their driver.
Many will point to the number of wedge shots. I’m more interested in who can conquer the long approaches. Those five par-5s will need to be your primary scoring option. Toss in two reachable par-4s and you have seven holes where a long approach will lead directly to scoring. We have 16 of the top 30 in the OWGR in the field. They are all great wedge players. To separate yourself, those 200-plus shots will be the key.
Once those shots land, scoring takes over. Whether it is Bermudagrass putting or short game around these greens, both contribute to the winning score. Do you remember Sam Burns's greenside triple bogey to lose in 2021? All of these reasons are why this is a perfect return event for Tiger Woods. It will be 236 days on Thursday since he left Augusta National in April. Albany sits alongside the coast. It is relatively flat and remote. Fans, media and expectations can be limited in such a small field. Woods can walk away with a top 10 and all he has to do is beat half the players! Getting back to my original point, many of them have not competed in months.
Six of the top 10 in the world are playing. The winners at Albany represent the cream of the crop. Only one winner had pre-tournament odds over +1600 (16-1) in all seven editions. I expect that trend to continue and so do the operators. Four players are listed on the betting board under +1000 (10-1). That has not happened in the previous seven HWCs at Albany. Books don’t like to lose and the top four are impressive.
Hovland we already mentioned and Scheffler is next. Max Homa won in his last start in South Africa three weeks ago (Justin Thomas finished fourth). Collin Morikawa won the Zozo in October, but he has a question mark looming. Why did he withdraw from the Netflix Cup? He told us it was a bad back; I know he also has bad memories in the Bahamas. The two-time major winner lost to Hovland in 2021 after giving up a six-stroke lead in the final round.
Needless to say, there’s plenty of drama on deck in Nassau even without Woods’s return. Tiger won’t make my win, place and show, but I think we all are pulling for him. Golf needs an alpha back to redirect this mess. Don’t get me started on where we are, as a betting expert I’m just interested in where we are going. Let’s hope he steers the ship toward the best competing together more often.
Win: Justin Thomas
If there’s a guy below the very top of the betting board who can take down Scottie and Vik, it is Justin Thomas. Since August, JT has three straight top-12 finishes. The reason is a resurgent approach game. Thomas is also putting much better, gaining in three straight events with his flatstick. He's also finished in the top 5 in his last three starts at Albany. The ball striking is now consistent and the short game will lead to scoring. Take Justin Thomas to win the Hero World Challenge (+1300 SI Sportsbook).
Last event's pick: No dice with Taylor Pendrith at the RSM Classic, missing the cut by a shot as our pick to win.
Place: Scottie Scheffler
Give me Scottie Scheffler this week as long as he doesn’t need to beat Viktor Hovland! The prop market is all about finding value. Scheffler is +450 to beat everyone or +350 to be the low man from the USA. Take Scottie Scheffler to finish Top American (+350 SI Sportsbook).
Last event's pick: Winner! Eric Cole was tabbed for a top-20 finish at the RSM and tied for third, capping a great season.
Showdown: Wyndham Clark over Tony Finau
Tony Finau has not played since the Tour Championship in August. He finished the season losing strokes in five of his last six events. Wyndham Clark finished third at the Tour Championship, played on the Ryder Cup team and played in the Andalucia Masters (T56) in October. Clark’s short game and putter is a perfect match for Albany while Finau’s flatstick hasn’t gained positive strokes since July. Take Wyndham Clark over Tony Finau head-to-head (+110 SI Sportsbook).
Last event's pick: Winner! Alex Noren (T23) had a solid week and bettered Corey Conners (T44) in our matchup at Sea Island.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Viktor Hovland +350
Scottie Scheffler +500
Max Homa +700
Collin Morikawa +750
Justin Thomas +1300
Cameron Young +1600
Matt Fitzpatrick +1600
Jordan Spieth +2000
Rickie Fowler +2000
Tony Finau +2000
Wyndham Clark +2000
Sam Burns +2200
Justin Rose +2500
Keegan Bradley +2500
Sepp Straka +2800
Will Zalatoris +3000
Brian Harman +3300
Jason Day +3500
Lucas Glover +5500
Tiger Woods +6600