2023 Honda Classic: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for PGA National's Champion course
PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. — I love events like the Honda Classic. The past two weeks were difficult to bet with limited opportunities. You could bet Jon Rahm, but I’m sure the books at this point have that liability covered. With 23 of the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking in the field at the Genesis Invitational, your winner was destined to come from small portion of the field.
As I walk the practice range at PGA National watching the field, the lowest-ranked player and favorite in Palm Beach Gardens is Sungjae Im. The 2020 Honda winner deserves the lead spot over 2019 British Open champion Shane Lowry, Aaron Wise and Billy Horschel. Past the eight players in the top 50 of the OWGR, this tournament is wide open. The average winning score over the past 15 years at this venue is 9.5 under par. In the last 10 years, the average winner’s pre-tournament odds are more than 120-1. Long shots thrive at the Honda and that makes for a very interesting week.
PGA National Resort and Spa is home to multiple golf courses. The Champion Course is their flagship layout designed by Jack Nicklaus. The par-70 scorecard measures 7,125 yards. The total length is quite short by PGA Tour standards, but distance is not the challenge in southeast Florida. Sixty bunkers guard the fairways and greens, wind protects from above and 15 of the 18 holes have water in play.
Only three winners in the last decade have reached double digits under par. The cutline hasn’t broken 1 over par in 16 years. This Bermudagrass playground doesn’t treat the competitors kindly. The "Bear Trap," a three-hole stretch on the back nine (15-16-17) plays to a cumulative score of .6 over par. You’ll hear that name about a thousand times throughout coverage, but I believe there’s an even tougher stretch on the front nine (5-6-7). Those three play .65 strokes over par as a group and the 6th hole is annually the toughest on the course relative to par.
Even if the wind doesn’t blow, this place is very difficult. Although the forecast doesn’t call for gusting winds, it will still blow as we are only six miles from the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures this week are predicted to sit in the mid-80s, a far cry from Los Angeles last week. There’s no rain in the forecast and this area hasn’t seen much precipitation in weeks. Walking the course, you can feel it is firm and fast.
Before I even look at the analytics, I know keeping your golf ball in play is the No. 1 priority this week. Seven of the last 10 years, the Champion has been the toughest non-major course on tour. Much like last week this will take a very patient and well-rounded approach.
- The strongest area of separation for the last 10 winners is on approach. The champion has gained an average of 6.4 strokes against the field in that time.
- The Champion Course is an interesting approach test. 50% percent of the shots into the green come from between 150-200 yards. We won’t see a lot of wedges or long irons on this course. Even though it sounds easy, players tend to hit just 60% of their GIRs, which is well below the Tour average.
- Driving accuracy is a premium as playing from the Bermudagrass rough is very penal. The average green size is just 7,000 square feet and they are firm, which makes them even smaller.
The PGA perspective I’m taking this week shows scrambling will be a big factor. Over the last five years, the average gain around the green has been higher than off the tee and putting. That tells us a player’s ability to avoid bogeys or worse is very valuable. One last point before my weekly Win, Place, and Show: only five players in the field have a career stroke average on the Champion Course below par. Of those five, only three have played the tournament multiple times. Cover you card this week with guys who can get up and down and your bankroll will benefit.
Win: Chris Kirk
He started the season with two third-place finishes in three starts. Chris Kirk (+2200 SI) is a proven winner on the PGA Tour. When you handicap a field full of potential, you must look for win equity. In his last five starts, Chris has gained over a stroke on approach and around the green. He’s great at scoring on difficult par 4s and his birdie-or-better percentage is 11th in this field. He is the fifth-best par-3 player in the field, playing those four holes to .74 strokes over par. He has come close early in the season and is prepared to capture his fifth career win.
A close second on my list was Matt Kuchar (+2200 SI).
Last week's pick: Viktor Hovland was a solid T20, but not so much as our winner's choice.
Place: Jhonattan Vegas
Playing the placement game is all about research. Jhonattan Vegas has safely navigated six straight cuts on the Champ Course and nine out of 10 starts overall. Coming into this Honda, he’s gaining in every strokes gained category from tee to green. Bermuda is his favorite putting surface and against the other players from South America, he’s the clear favorite. Take Jhonny to finish as the low South American (+120 SI) in this field.
Last week's pick: Adam Scott was picked to finish as low Aussie, but Jason Day's resurgence continued with a T9 to Scott's 65th.
Showdown: Denny McCarthy over Billy Horschel
Two weeks in a row and our showdown matchup has paid out before the weekend. The trend is our friend and this week I see another great opportunity. Denny McCarthy shot 64-71 to close the Genesis and finish T14. Billy Horschel didn’t play the weekend. He’s a favorite this week based upon world ranking and not recent form. He’s missed two of his last three cuts and the ball striking numbers are bad. Take the PGA Tour's best putter in McCarthy (-120 on DraftKings) and get paid again on Friday night.
Last week's pick: Adam Hadwin made the cut and Taylor Montgomery didn't, running Keith's matchups mark to 6-1.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Sungjae Im +900
Shane Lowry +1400
Chris Kirk +2200
Matt Kuchar +2200
Aaron Wise +2500
Billy Horschel +2500
Denny McCarthy +2500
Min Woo Lee +2500
Taylor Pendrith +3000
Adam Svensson +3300
Harris English +3300
J.T. Poston +3300
Jhonattan Vegas +3300
Thomas Detry +3300
Cameron Davis +3500
Adrian Meronk +4000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4000
Robby Shelton +4000
Sepp Straka +4500
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.