2023 John Deere Classic: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Deere Run
Six of the last nine champions of the John Deere Classic have been first time winners on the PGA Tour. Hosted by TPC Deere Run, this week represents the third birdie-fest in a row on the summer schedule. Two weeks ago, Keegan Bradley cleaned up in Connecticut at the Travelers Championship. Last week, Rickie Fowler ended a four-year win drought by making 28 birdies and one eagle at the Rocket Mortgage.
The last 10 winners of the JDC have averaged 21 under par in victory. For the third week in a row, our champion will need 25-plus birdies to win on Tour. TPC Deere Run is a par-71 layout stretching 7,289 yards. Four par-3s, three par-5s, and 11 par-4s cover the scorecard. Short by Tour standards, the No. 1 defense of the course might just be the strength of field. The OWGR measures strength of field for all the events on the PGA Tour schedule. Over the past five years, the average field rating for the JDC is 98.
To put that is perspective, the Rocket Mortgage Classic held a rating of 244 (higher equals a stronger field). The designated-event Travelers secured a 403 strength of field rating and the U.S. Open had a 421. One primary reason why so many first-time winners occur at the JDC is the competition. Throw in the volatility of a high-scoring affair with limited-skill-set challenges and we need to dig deeper.
Tournament officials expect a soft course this week for scoring. I don’t know if the field of 156 players will get to Michael Kim’s tournament record of 27 under par, but the region has received some rain. Showers on Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday will keep the green surfaces just soft enough to be receptive. More precipitation is expected Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are forecasted to sit in the high 70s and the wind in the single digits.
TPC Deere Run is a woodland layout with 76 bunkers, elevation changes and winding fairways. No hole runs straight from tee to green that is longer than a par-3. Players favor driving accuracy over length. At 7,200 yards, the venue brings the entire field into consideration. At any course where Ryder Cup captains Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker share four wins, we know iron accuracy and putting are important. Looking through the last 10 winners, we see the largest average strokes-gained statistics came with the putter.
Over the last decade look at the average gains in each major strokes-gained category by the winners.
- Off the tee: +2.1
- Approach: +5.0
- Around the green: +2.3
- Putting: +5.6
Go back just five years, and the average putting gain jumps to 6.8! When looking across those analytics, another number jumps off the page. Winners of the JDC need to have a sharp short game. Approach play carries the second-biggest impact, but getting around TPC Deere Run without a bogey takes serious short game skill. Keeping two or three bogeys off the card keeps you in contention. Only four holes have a bogey rate over 15%. Contenders cannot risk bad bogeys when you consider 13 holes bring with them a birdie rate over 15%.
Par-5 scoring carries some significance, but the real way to separate yourself from the field comes on the par-4s. Eight of the 11 par-4s fall under 455 yards. Approach play with a wedge leads to opportunities. It is the same iron skill set we just previewed across the last two Tour events. Another comp championship is the RBC Canadian Open. The last six winners of the John Deere Classic all played on the PGA Tour the week prior. The summer schedule is a sea of similarity outside the majors.
With just five events left prior to the playoffs, those playing will be focused on winning and valuable FedEx Cup points. The top 65 and ties make the weekend and compete for $7.4 million. The top 125 no longer qualify for the postseason, 55 players have been cut from the old system and only the top 70 play for the season’s biggest payout. A handful of guys have been great the past couple of weeks. Following those trending contenders will lead to more success with our Win, Place, and Show for the John Deere Classic.
Congratulations to Rickie Fowler and all our readers last week. Our Win bet won the Rocket Mortgage Classic and gave Read The Line subscribers our eighth win of the season. That’s 20 wins total for RTL in the last 18 months! Click the link below in my byline and start reading today.
Win: Adam Schenk
In four starts at the John Deere Classic, Adam Schenk has finished in the top 6 twice. Fresh off a sensational Sunday 66 at the Rocket Mortgage, Schenk returns to one of his favorite Tour stops. The Indiana native has been very supportive of the Quad Cities event and that mindset has brought great success. Ranked fourth in the field for birdie-or-better percentage and fifth for strokes-gained approach, Adam will convert most of his birdie chances. His four top 10s since the runner-up finish at the Valspar make him Sunday-ready to win for the first time on the PGA Tour. Take Adam Schenk (+2800 SI Sportsbook) to win the John Deere Classic.
Last week's pick: Winner! As mentioned, Rickie Fowler came through at a +1400 price. Hopefully his popular win put some money in your pocket.
Place: Chez Reavie
Chez Reavie has been on a roll. Starting with the PGA Championship, Reavie has made six straight cuts. The consistent ball striker was fourth at the Travelers and has played his last three tournaments in 39 under par. He’s ranked sixth in the field SG:APP and with that hot putter can finish in contention again. Take Chez Reavie to finish top 40.
Last week's pick: Hideki Matsuyama was a surprising missed cut, so no place cash last week.
Showdown: Taylor Moore over Keith Mitchell
Taylor Moore just finished fourth at the Rocket Mortgage. His putter and tee-to-green play gained over 12 strokes against the field. Keith Mitchell hasn’t really contended since the west coast swing and hasn’t played since the U.S. Open. Moore’s recent form versus Mitchell’s first event back give us a nice edge. Take Taylor Moore over Keith Mitchell head-to-head.
Last week's pick: Winner! Justin Thomas was another surprising missed cut while Sungjae Im played well, so our matchup was decided on Friday night. We love those.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Denny McCarthy +1400
Russell Henley +1400
Cameron Young +1600
Ludvig Aberg +2500
Adam Hadwin +2800
Adam Schenk +2800
Emiliano Grillo +2800
Stephan Jaeger +2800
Eric Cole +3000
Keith Mitchell +3000
Taylor Moore +3000
Chris Kirk +3300
Seamus Power +3300
Alex Smalley +3500
Byeong Hun An +4000
J.T. Poston +4000
Nick Taylor +4000
Patrick Rodgers +4000
Matt Kuchar +4500
Beau Hossler +5000
Chez Reavie +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Doug Ghim +5000
Ryan Palmer +5000
Sepp Straka +5000
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