2023 Memorial Tournament: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Muirfield Village Golf Club
DUBLIN, Ohio — Can anyone beat Scottie Scheffler this week?
The number one golfer in the world just finished third in the Charles Schwab Challenge despite losing nearly five strokes with his putter. Over his last 10 starts, Scheffler has gained 11.6 strokes against the field. In his 11 starts of 2023, he has two wins, six top 5s and nothing outside 12th. You’ll find plenty of pundits who consider this stretch of ball striking to be equal with some of Tiger Woods's most impressive runs.
Scheffler’s next test comes at the Memorial, home of golf’s greatest champion, Jack Nicklaus. The host course Muirfield Village Golf Club was founded in the mid-1970s. Since Roger Maltbie’s inaugural win (1976), the PGA Tour has returned to Dublin, Ohio, every year. As the players have evolved, so has the golf course. The most extensive of these upgrades came just a couple of years ago in 2020-21.
Patrick Cantlay fired a near-tournament record 19 under in 2019 and Nicklaus had seen enough. A tribute to Augusta National and Muirfield, the course needed to be renovated. The present design will test all of the 120 players who are competing this week. Nineteen of the top 25 in the OWGR are here for another $20 million designated purse and $3.6 million first-place check.
The most recent updates (2022) to MVGC took place on the 16th and 17th holes. Nicklaus added some yardage to each where the par-3 16th now plays 220 yards and the par-4 17th stretches to 503 yards. This now gives MVGC one of the most difficult finishes on the Tour schedule. The par-72 scorecard plays to 7,571 yards. A top-5 course for approach and around the green difficulty, it surely will fall in the category of a great major championship examination in the weeks leading up to the U.S. Open.
The course will play firm and fast this week as the central Ohio region has felt very little rain in the last two weeks. To compound the firmness, temperatures are forecasted in the mid- to high-80s for all four rounds. The golf ball will be flying high and long around Muirfield Village for 72 holes. Scoring history since the renovation in 2020-21 has been consistent in the low teens. Both tournaments finished at 13 under par and I expect the winning score to fall between 10-13 under for this week as well.
The guys have four par-5s to play each day and they will yield some birdies. Par-5 scoring is a great indicator for success in the Memorial. At 7,500+ yards great driving is imperative. You don’t have to be super long (its helps), but you do have to be accurate. MVGC registers the highest penalty for missing the fairway on Tour. If you take a three-shot par-5, the next two shots also encapsulate the skills needed to score well here. Players need an accurate long-iron layup and then a scoring shot to the green. Approach play is priority 1A. Over the last decade, the winners of the Memorial have averaged a six-stroke gain with their iron game against the field.
Muirfield Village has smaller-than-average greens (5,000 square feet) to go along with those long fairways. Fourteen holes have water in play and all 18 holes are surrounded by 50 greenside bunkers. The short game plays a significant role in contending on Sunday; priority 1B. Billy Horschel gained more around the green (5.2 strokes) than he did on approach (5.0) en route to victory last year.
The blueprint to build my Win, Place, and Show for the Memorial isn’t complete without a mention of hitting GIRs, avoiding bogeys, and making sure your sand play is in order. Jack has developed a great modern-day test for the PGA Tour . Accuracy is the overall goal as the mix of winners runs the gambit between Jon Rahm and David Lingmerth. From William McGirt to Patrick Cantlay, the Memorial will surprise you with their champion. Hideki Matsuyama's first career PGA Tour win was here in 2014.
Mired in the middle of major season, I believe the best are rounding into form just in time for Los Angeles in two weeks. Watch the top of the board as I reveal my picks for Nicklaus’s next edition of the Memorial.
Win: Viktor Hovland
Viktor Hovland is the best long-iron player in the world. At the PGA Championship he gained 10.6 strokes against the field. Where most criticize his short game, he also kept himself in contention at Oak Hill around the greens, gaining more than three strokes. Muirfield Village is a course where ball strikers can seriously separate themselves and Hovland has done everything to prepare for an elevated breakthrough win. Take Viktor Hovland (+1800 SI Sportsbook) to win the Memorial.
Last week's pick: Tommy Fleetwood didn't win, nor did he make the cut. So not much suspense there.
Place: Hideki Matsuyama
Over his past five starts, Hideki Matsuyama has not finished outside of the top 30. Matsuyama was fifth at The Players, 16th at the Masters, and 29th at the PGA despite losing five strokes putting! His first career win was at the Memorial in 2014. SI’s book is offering positive odds on a top 20. Hideki on a comfortable course for the former Masters champion at a time when he’s playing healthy is a win. Take Hideki Matsuyama to finish top 20 (+140 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Ouch, Viktor Hovland shot a final-round 73 to finish T16, missing our top-10 play.
Showdown: Hideki Matsuyama over Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth seems out of sorts. He missed the cut in Texas and we’re all not sure if he’s truly healthy. Hideki Matsuyama is playing great and returns to a course that suits his strengths. The 2014 Memorial winner is ranked sixth in all-time scoring at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Let’s cash this matchup on Friday again. Take Hideki Matsuyama over Jordan Spieth H2H (-121 PointsBet).
Last week's pick: Winner! Viktor Hovland made the cut and Sungjae Im didn't, meaning a Friday night cash in the showdown.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler +650
Jon Rahm +700
Patrick Cantlay +1000
Rory McIlroy +1300
Xander Schauffele +1400
Viktor Hovland +1800
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jason Day +2500
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Justin Thomas +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +3000
Sungjae Im +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Jordan Spieth +3300
Rickie Fowler +3500
Sam Burns +3500
Corey Conners +4000
Russell Henley +4500
Shane Lowry +4500
Sahith Theegala +5000
Si Woo Kim +5000