2023 RSM Classic: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Sea Island Golf Club
ST. SIMONS ISLAND, Ga. — The practice range at Sea Island Golf Club is one of the most beautiful golf settings in the United States. Bordering St. Simons Sound, the sun moves across the sky from right to left creating an incredible sunset view every evening. As I walk the range, I’m reminded amongst all that beauty of the harsh reality of the PGA Tour. What was once a major storyline mid-summer at the Wyndham Championship now dominates the FedEx Cup Fall’s final event, the RSM Classic.
Most of the 156-player field is competing for more than just an $8.4 million purse. After seven fall events, the top 125 will be set by late Sunday afternoon. Those inside the qualifying number will earn their 2024 Tour card. Another storyline is the 10 FedEx Cup players ranked 51-60 will qualify for two signature events (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational). Those events have proven to be career-changing with enormous purses and elite field status.
If we keep going, there’s also those trying to make a move for Magnolia Lane. The top 50 in the OWGR at year's end get an invite to the Masters. For players like Matt Kuchar and Ludvig Åberg, a solid showing means a trip to Augusta National Golf Club in early April. All combined, as I walk around the practice facilities you can see and feel the minds churning, constantly contemplating where they stand amongst their peers and their prospects for next year.
A field of 156 will play two layouts before a weekend on the Seaside course.
John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports
Motivation is a powerful thing. It can fight anxiety, or it can embrace it. Considering the complicated nature of handicapping two courses and 150-plus players, these are the small details which decide who wins. Sea Island Golf Club is a five-star 54-hole golf resort. First class in every way, the Seaside and Plantation courses are the competitive playgrounds this week. Competitors will play both during Rounds 1 and 2. The top 65 and ties play the weekend on the Seaside layout.
Both courses are short by PGA Tour standards. Plantation historically plays easier, with four par-5s and better protection from the elements. Seaside is a par-70 design and as the name evokes, sits alongside the water. Far less protected from the wind, weather can play a huge role in determining the field scoring average. Consider the winning score of the RSM over the last 10 years is 19 under par; we have seen final scores of 14 under and as high as 22 under.
I walked both courses this week and have competed on each several times. Local knowledge does play a role, but familiarity with coastal Bermudagrass greens is by far the biggest skill needed to separate from the field. In the last 10 RSMs, winners have gained over five strokes on the field with their flatstick. Both courses offer a plethora of birdie chances with so many short scorable par-4s and 5s. The player who has the best conversion rate will win.
Getting to those birdie chances takes accuracy off the tee. Most players will exhibit a conservative game plan using less than driver. Sea Island ranks well below the Tour average in driving distance and well above in accuracy. You will see a majority of the field play to the same landing zones all four days. From there, each guy will play aggressively at these hole locations. Nearly 60% of the approach plays will be from 100-175 yards. Wedges and scoring irons are all that is needed from that range.
Then starts the putting contest. The field will score lower on the par-72 Plantation layout. In fact, through my research, four of the last five winners have played Plantation first and then Seaside the first two days. Down in the Golden Isles, we expect some weather to come Wednesday into Friday. If the forecast remains the same, players who catch the best weather on Plantation can really go deep.
Seaside can be brutal in the wind and rain. Temperatures will reach the mid-70s all four days; Saturday and Sunday look much better than rounds one and two. That’s quite a difference from a year ago when 2022 RSM Champion Adam Svensson played the final round in a knitted winter hat! I love being on property to handicap pressure-packed weeks. The final tournament of the year can bring major-championship anxiety for some.
Others have the weight of a world ranking or the comfort of sleeping in their own bed to contend with. Not many of the Sea Island residents have played well here over the years. Our win, place and show does not include any of the local “mafia.” What is does have are players who have taken advantage of the seven fall events. Professionals who have played well and are a proven fit for one of America’s nicest golf destinations.
Win: Taylor Pendrith
What if Canada won back-to-back RSM Classics? I believe Taylor Pendrith has been trending this fall and can capture the season’s final trophy. In his last 10 starts, Pendrith is gaining 3.4 strokes on the field. The powerful Canuck can separate himself with the driver on both courses. If the weather gets bad, his ball speed is less affected by the wind. Pendrith's last three starts are an eighth, 15th and third-place finish. Ranked top 20 in the field for tee-to-green play and par-4 scoring, he has the perfect complement to conquer the year’s final exam. Take Taylor Pendrith to win the RSM Classic (+4500 SI Sportsbook).
Place: Eric Cole
Eric Cole has finished second, third, 35th and fourth in his four starts this fall. People complain about his driver, yet he finishes runner-up at the difficult Zozo. Cole can’t make enough birdies and he finishes third at the Shriners. The rookie sensation has impressed us all year and will close the season in style. If you need more motivation, he’s ranked 48th in the OWGR. If he stays in the top 50, he plays Augusta in the spring. Take Eric Cole to finish top 20 (+163 SI Sportsbook).
Showdown: Alex Noren over Corey Conners
Alex Noren has gained an average of four strokes against the field in his last five starts. Corey Conners last five starts take you back to July. Noren’s consistent fall with top-3 finishes in two of his last three tourneys gives him tremendous momentum. He’ll start quick against Conners, who hasn’t competed since August. Take Alex Noren over Corey Conners head-to-head (+115 DraftKings).
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
Last week's pick: Brendon Todd was tabbed to win and started strong but faded on the weekend to T20.
Last week's pick: Ben Griffin finished T37 off our pick to finish top 20.
Last week's pick: Winner! Thomas Detry missed the cut by two shots, handing an early matchup win to Brendon Todd. We love those.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Ludvig Aberg +1400
Russell Henley +1500
Brian Harman +1600
Cameron Young +1800
Corey Conners +2000
Alex Noren +2500
J.T. Poston +2800
Si Woo Kim +2800
Eric Cole +3000
Denny McCarthy +3300
Justin Suh +3300
Adam Svensson +3500
Matt Kuchar +3500
Brendon Todd +4000
Chris Kirk +4000
J.J. Spaun +4000
Stephan Jaeger +4000
Billy Horschel +4500
Luke List +4500
Taylor Pendrith +4500
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Alex Smalley +5000
Keith Mitchell +5000