2023 Sanderson Farms Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for the Country Club of Jackson
Why is Ludvig Aberg in Jackson, Miss., two days after winning the 44th Ryder Cup matches?
Contributing to the winning European team will mark his place in history, but one thing it will not get Aberg is a PGA Tour card for 2024. With just six FedEx Cup Fall events remaining, he and the 144-man field at the Sanderson Farms Championship should all be playing with a serious sense of urgency.
The top 65 and ties will make the weekend and play for an $8.2 million purse. Although a $1.476 million winner’s check sounds nice, it is the FedEx Cup points these players really covet. Point totals 1 through 50 are set on the FedEx Cup points list. The next 10 (51-60) determined by their performance this fall will get to play in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational, both signature events in 2024. The top 125 will be exempt for all the 2024 full-field events and The Players Championship. The next 25 (125-150) will have Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional PGA Tour status.
The Country Club of Jackson has hosted the Sanderson Farms since 2014. The 27-hole facility boasts three nine-hole courses. The PGA Tour plays the Dogwood and Azalea nines for the championship. The par-72 scorecard stretches 7,461 yards. Four par-3s, four par-5s, and 10 par-4s make up the layout. Scoring is a theme at the Sanderson Farms as the average winning score in those nine years is 18 under par.
Large greens are on tap this week at the Country Club of Jackson (18th hole pictured).
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports
Larger-than-average greens (6,200 square feet) are approached with wedges. Nearly 40% of approach shots are taken from 125-175 yards. All Tour players are great from this distance. Five holes have water in play and only 56 bunkers are scattered throughout 18 holes. Bermudagrass rough and greens is the one defense CC of Jackson can use to slow these players down. Predicting success at the Sanderson Farms has always started with who can handle that southern strain of grass.
The course has received less than one inch of rain in the last three weeks. There’s a slight chance of precipitation on Friday, but otherwise the forecast looks great for the restart of the fall schedule. Temperatures will start in the mid-80s on Thursday and Friday and drop to mid-70s over the weekend. Just enough breeze to be bothersome, the wind will blow in the low teens for all four days. Conditions will be peak for scoring and that sense of urgency I mentioned in the opening better be a large part of their strategy.
CC of Jackson is annually ranked in the top-5 easiest courses on Tour. These guys will get after the par-5s and short par-4 15th hole. Five more par-4s under 440 yards and your birdie-or-better percentage better be high. Upon further research of the last nine winners, the largest strokes-gained category against the field comes on the greens. In nine editions played at the CC of Jackson, the winners have gained an average of six strokes against the field with their flatstick.
The second-largest gain comes on approach, while off the tee and around the green have shown far less impact toward contending and winning. Speaking of those winners, one value that is higher that the scoring are the pre-tournament odds of the winners. Eight of the last nine Sanderson Farms champions began the event with odds of +5500 (55-1) or higher. Longshots have been known to surprise the Sanderson Farms favorites and win.
Our card starts with players who have a solid putting stroke. You can make putts at CC of Jackson. Since everyone has a wedge in hand attacking the green, the best putter will win. You can separate yourself with proximity to the hole, but I’m favoring the flatstick and overall driving as the best opportunity to differentiate. Bogey avoidance will play a role over the course of 72 holes. Keeping those scoring rounds going will require a skilled short-game shot or two. The average cutline in nine years is 1.3 under par.
Considering the prolific scoring of the leaders, a 1-under measure after 36 holes reveals that trouble lurks. Follow our Win, Place and Show as they attack the CC of Jackson and more importantly the FedEx Cup points list at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Win: Doug Ghim
Doug Ghim gave us a top-20 finish at the Fortinet. Inside his week was the best putting performance he has had since July (Rocket Mortgage). Ghim gained nearly three strokes (2.7) with the flatstick. His ball-striking has been Tour leading, gaining over five strokes tee-to-green in his last 10 starts and we just needed to see signs of life on the greens. At the Sanderson Farms he’s ranked first in ball-striking and wedge play from 125-150 yards. Being top 10 in proximity, his driver will find the fairway and create more birdie chances than the rest of the field. Take Doug Ghim to win the Sanderson Farms Championship (+4500 SI Sportsbook).
Last pick: Cam Davis put in a strong effort at the Fortinet Championship but came in third. As for our pick to win the Ryder Cup, cough, never mind.
Place: Emiliano Grillo
In four starts at the Sanderson Farms, Emiliano Grillo has four top-40 finishes. Last year he finished fifth and is playing better golf now. An incredible ball-striker, Grillo is another one who has found confidence with the putter. In his last five starts, he has not finished outside the top 31. A comfortable course for a great ball-striker is the exact recipe for a winning placement. Take Emiliano Grillo to finish Top 20 (+138 SI Sportsbook).
Last pick: Winner! We liked Justin Thomas to finish in the top 20 in his Ryder Cup tuneup in Napa and he took solo fifth.
Showdown: Ludvig Aberg over Stephan Jaeger
Golf betting media is going to push Stephan Jaeger this week. But he has not finished inside the top 10 since the Rocket Mortgage in July. Ludvig Aberg is playing exceptionally well and riding a wave of self-confidence since leaving college. Aberg’s ball-striking is better than Jaeger’s. Take Ludvig Aberg over Stephan Jaeger head-to-head (-120 DraftKings).
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
Last pick: Winner! We tabbed Cam Davis to beat Beau Hossler and Davis's third-place effort got it done.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Ludvig Aberg +1100
Stephan Jaeger +1800
Emiliano Grillo +2000
Eric Cole +2000
Keith Mitchell +2800
Beau Hossler +3000
S.H. Kim +3000
Lee Hodges +3300
Lucas Herbert +3300
Adam Svensson +3500
Alex Smalley +3500
Callum Tarren +4000
Davis Riley +4000
Garrick Higgo +4000
K.H. Lee +4000
Mark Hubbard +4000
Sam Ryder +4000
Ben Griffin +4500
Davis Thompson +4500
Doug Ghim +4500
Hayden Buckley +4500
Tom Hoge +4500
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Dylan Wu +5000
Kevin Streelman +5000
Luke List +5000
Nicholas Lindheim +5000
Sam Stevens +5000