2023 Shriners Children's Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Summerlin
LAS VEGAS — Does Lexi Thompson have what it takes to make the cut and play the weekend at the Shriners Children’s Open? When you really start to think about this choice, there is a chance. TPC Summerlin is a par-71, 7,255-yard course. That’s about 600 yards longer than the average LPGA venue, but Las Vegas is 2,000 feet above sea level. Thin air adds carry. Each player will be hitting the ball 5 to 7% longer.
Thompson’s test really won’t be off the tee. I think she can stay close due to the firm and fast desert conditions. Temperatures are expected in the high 70s and low 80s with very little breeze. No rain predicted for probably the next six months and each fairway will play short. But don’t forget if the course plays short for Lexi, then it will for the remainder of the 132-person field.
The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for $8.4 million. That has to be the goal for Thompson. How can she make the cut and what does it take to contend at TPC Summerlin? Ninety-two bunkers decorate the desert design. Four holes have water in play, three of which are the final three holes on the course. Remember Patrick Cantlay’s desert drive and subsequent plunge in the pond on the final hole against Tom Kim last year?
Finding fairways is always key in the desert but work on the greens determines who wins at TPC Summerlin.
Matthew Bolt/Icon Sportswire
The FedEx Cup Fall has already been extremely entertaining, and CC of Jackson isn’t half as volatile as TPC Summerlin. Fourteen holes have a birdie rate over 15%. That means, 20-plus players per round are making birdie or better. Over the last five years, the average winning score is 23 under par. Tom Kim equaled the tournament record 24 under par a year ago. The field made 2,000 birdies in 2022!
Tom took the trophy with great par-4 scoring, accurate ball striking, acumen around the green and a scorching hot putter. It is the desert, so hot putters are a thing. The last 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes (5.6) on the field en route to capturing the trophy. Accuracy off the tee is often the first ball-striking analytic bettors look at. Let me remind you, Martin Laird (twice), Kevin Na (twice) and Webb Simpson have won here.
The real test at TPC Summerlin is scoring. Can you take advantage of three par-5s each day? Follow that up with nine par-4s under 450 yards. The average cutline over the last five years is 4 under par. That’s where Lexi’s biggest challenge lies. She must make 10 birdies in 36 holes. Most only consider birdie-or-better percentage, but players make bogeys and double bogeys when they miss in the desert.
She and the rest of the field will need to sharpen their short game skills. Summerlin annually plays as one of the 10 toughest PGA Tour events around the green. Seventeen of the 18 holes have greenside bunkers and where there isn’t sand, you have severe slopes and tight Bermudagrass. There’s a direct correlation between the top 10 and strokes gained around the green. On a Tour where it is tough to differentiate yourself, wedge skill is at a premium.
It won’t come in handy just saving par. Those short par-4s and par-5s require wedge scoring shots. Over a third of the approaches come from 100-150 yards away. If you had the wedges going last week in Mississippi, you’re on my radar screen this week. The winners gain an average of five strokes on approach against the group. Since solid wedge play is mandatory on the PGA Tour, the best way to separate yourself with your irons is on the par-5s and long par-3s.
Long irons have always separated the contenders from the pretenders. The field hits an average of 73% of their greens in regulation. The putting surfaces are large at TPC Summerlin measuring 7,400 square feet. Proximity plays a pivotal role as the greens are perfectly partitioned. Walking the course, you can see how hitting your targets from long- and close-range dictates scoring success.
Taking those near approaches and converting them is the last key. The largest number of strokes gained by the leaders comes on the green. Over the past decade our winners have gained an average of six strokes on the field with their flatstick. On and around the green is where Lexi and the rest of the field will need to get the job done. Even though only four holes have a bogey rate over 15%, players get caught in the desert often.
When they miss greens, they must get up and down to keep up. For Lexi to make her fifth cut of the year, she will need an excellent week with her short game and putting. That’s the key for her and the rest of the field. Accurate and aggressive ball striking alongside some deft touch around the greens, and you have the primary skill set needed to make our weekly win, place and show.
Win: Ludvig Aberg
I faded Ludvig Aberg last week to win, and he proved worthy of our attention. The Swedish superstar lost in a five-man playoff. Aberg gained over 12 strokes tee-to-green at CC of Jackson. Take that level of ball striking and fast-forward to a course perfectly suited to his game. He’s ranked second in the field for birdie-or-better percentage and par-4 scoring. The short game is ranked top 5 and his putter gained 1.46 strokes last week. My biggest intangible with this kid is the amount of time he spent with great players at the Ryder Cup. I think a little Viktor rubbed off on him and he’s about to take the next step. Take Ludvig Aberg to win the Shriners Children’s Open (+4500 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Doug Ghim took the suspense out of our win pick by missing the cut on the number.
Place: Mark Hubbard
Mark Hubbard led the field in strokes-gained tee to green and approach at the Sanderson Farms. He finished ninth and lost strokes with his putter. We move to bentgrass this week in Vegas, which is his best surface by far. Hubbard has been playing well in this brief fall run, also finishing 17th at the Fortinet. Take Mark Hubbard to finish in the top 20 (+200 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Emiliano Grillo took the suspense out of our place pick by missing the cut.
Showdown: Adam Svensson over Lucas Herbert
Lucas Herbert is an incredible putter. Unfortunately, he’s ranked in the bottom half of ball strikers in this field. Adam Svensson is a top 10 ball striker in Vegas and has the putter to capitalize on numerous birdie chances. Herbert will make more putts, but those will be for par and Svensson will continue his fall form. Take Adam Svensson over Lucas Herbert head-to-head (-120 DraftKings).
Last week's pick: Winner! We liked Ludvig Aberg over Stephan Jaeger in a matchup at the Sanderson Farms and Aberg nearly won the tournament.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Tom Kim +1100
Ludvig Aberg +1200
Si Woo Kim +2000
Cam Davis +2200
J.T. Poston +2800
Adam Schenk +3000
J.J. Spaun +3000
Adam Hadwin +3300
Andrew Putnam +3300
Eric Cole +3300
Tom Hoge +3300
Beau Hossler +3500
Vincent Norrman +3500
Emiliano Grillo +4000
Nicolai Hojgaard +4000
Adam Svensson +4500
Alex Smalley +4500
Davis Thompson +4500
Garrick Higgo +4500
Lucas Herbert +4500
Mark Hubbard +4500
Aaron Rai +5000
Ben Griffin +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Luke List +5000
Patrick Rodgers +5000