2023 U.S. Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Los Angeles Country Club

The national championship is back in Los Angeles and our expert predicts a Hollywood finish with one of last year's major stars.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Updated:
Jun 14, 2023
Original:
Jun 13, 2023

“When I’m swinging well, I don’t take divots.” — Tiger Woods

Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course is a perfect venue for a healthy Tiger Woods. Forget the California-native narrative, Tiger’s shallow angle of attack would have suited the situation all these players are about to encounter at the 123rd United States Open.

Southern California received a historic amount of rain in January. The deluge to start the year ended months ago and now the region hasn’t felt measurable rain in about a month. The USGA knew what they were probably getting with a June date in Los Angeles. The conditions have been dry leading up to the tournament and now the tournament committee can create a fantastic firm-and-fast championship.

The field of 156 players consists of 23 of the top 25 in the OWGR (and 23 of 25 SIWGR) and 18 amateur qualifiers. Each is trying to get inside the top 60 and ties to play the weekend on Los Angeles Country Club’s famous North Course. Designed by George Thomas in 1928, the incredible eye of this architect designed a tremendous test of tilted terrain. In 2010, the team of Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner, and Geoff Shackelford renovated the championship course.

The unique par-70 scorecard shows three par-5s, five par-3s, and 10 par-4s all together measuring 7,421 yards. Along the way, Thomas takes you on a journey across uneven surfaces surrounded by L.A.’s Century City and the Playboy Mansion. This true Hollywood setting is perfect for all the drama golf can offer these days.

How everyone’s favorite golfers will handle the scrutiny, time will tell. One item we can predict this week is the weather. It will continue to be dry, sunny, and the forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s. Afternoon coastal breezes will come in each afternoon from the Pacific Ocean.

The course runs mainly from northwest to southeast. Those afternoon southwest winds create a crosswind on 13 holes, just one of the many tests this hard landscape has in store. Of course, competing on a firm course takes a couple of special skills. The first goes back to my lead: great ball strikers can adjust to firm soil conditions. Remember the 150th British Open last summer, where the ground was harder than the streets in St. Andrews. Those who were able to control their trajectory that week will have an edge at LACC.

You cannot control every bounce. Over 60% of the iron shots on the North Course are played from over 175 yards. Some 44% take place from over 200 yards. With six par-4s over 460 yards and two par-3s over 280 yards, long-iron acumen matters. From that range, you will get some unfortunate bounces. Creativity around the green will be needed to save a par or two and keep a good round going.

Thirty-six bunkers surround the greens. Sand play will not only be needed from the bunkers, but from the barranca as well. The barranca is a drainage ditch that is filled with sand, scrub bushes and double bogeys. It comes into play on seven of the holes on the lower side of the course. The greens are above-average in size. Lag putting on fast hard surfaces will again remind us of St. Andrews last summer.

The fairways are wide but controlling a ball 300 yards away can be very difficult when the landing area is hard and tilted. Many of the fairway targets on the North Course are canted. This causes players to work the ball into the slope to keep it in the fairway. Just another ground skill needed to contend for the U.S. Open medal.

Los Angeles has not hosted the national championship since 1948. Ben Hogan won that title at Riviera. It took a long time for a return to the town that tells incredible stories. I have a feeling we will see something even more special than the sudden 72-foot eagle to end to the RBC Canadian Open. As a result, my weekly Win, Place, and Show reflects a Hollywood flair for the dramatic.

Win: Cameron Smith

Cam Smith is ready to take over golf again and this venue is the perfect place for his game. For all the reasons Smith won at St. Andrews, the North Course fits as well. Starting with the world’s best short game and approach putting, Cam will save strokes throughout the round. He finished ninth at Oak Hill on a course where he lost a bunch of strokes off the tee. Widen those fairways at LACC and you might as well roll out the red carpet for him to win. Take Cam Smith (+2500 SI Sportsbook) to win the U.S. Open.

Last week's pick: Justin Rose was in the hunt for a win until a double bogey on the 8th hole Sunday. Finished solo eighth.

Place: Brooks Koepka

Since 2017, Koepka has the lowest scoring average in the majors. He also has the lowest scoring average on par-70 golf courses over the past five seasons on the PGA Tour, despite not playing there since joining LIV last summer. Short game? In his last four LIV events, Brooks has finished in the top seven in scrambling. Take Brooks Koepka to finish top 10 (+130 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: Winner! We tabbed Canada's Corey Conners for a top 20, he fizzled Sunday with a 74 but still hung on for a T20 finish.

Showdown: Denny McCarthy over Tom Kim

Denny McCarthy sits sixth on the list of top U.S. Open scoring averages in this field. He’s exceptional in long par-4 scoring and the short game checks every box. Tom Kim missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the Memorial. He has lost strokes putting in seven of his last nine starts. Take Denny McCarthy over Tom Kim head-to-head.

Last week's pick: Winner! Eric Cole had a terrific week (sixth) while Nicolai Hojgaard was slamming the trunk Friday. We love those in showdowns.