2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Louisiana
It’s an odd week on the PGA Tour. The Zurich Classic is a team event played outside New Orleans at TPC Louisiana. The Pete Dye-designed golf course has hosted the event since before it became a partner showdown six years ago. Sixteen of the top 50 in the OWGR (17 of top 50 SIWGR) are competing for the $8.6 million purse. The two winners will share $2,485,400 for first place ($1,242,700 per).
Since two PGA Tour players are competing together, the format is different than a normal 72-hole stroke-play event. Eighty teams of two (160 players) will compete in two different formats over the first 36 holes. The top 33 teams and ties will continue to weekend and play for the Zurich title.
- Rounds 1 and 3 will be played in a fourball or better-ball format. Each player will compete by playing their own ball and the low score of the team on each hole will count.
- Rounds 2 and 4 will be played in a foursomes or alternate-shot format. One player will pick the odd holes to tee off and the other will take the evens. Once the ball is in play, the two players will alternate turns until the ball is holed. That total will count as the team score.
For the third week in a row, we expect rain during the tournament. Walking the property last week at Hilton Head, it was amazing to witness how the course changed as the rain came through. This week should react similarly as the course sits below sea level. There’s been very little rain for the last three weeks, but from Friday into Saturday over an inch is forecasted. Temperatures will drop from the low 80s on Thursday to low 70s for the weekend when the front moves in.
Wind will challenge the teams as the breezes will blow in the upper teens and gust into the 20s. One of the many reasons the wind presents such a challenge are the 106 bunkers that decorate this Dye design. There are eight holes where water comes into play and 600 trees have been added to the property since Hurricane Ida rolled through a couple years ago. Like last week’s Dye blueprint, this course again calls for accuracy.
This is the Tour's fourth Dye test in seven weeks, with this one adding length on top of the bunkering and penalty areas. TPC Louisiana’s par-72 design is listed on the scorecard at 7,425 yards. One of the 10 longest on Tour, it is perfect for a partner event. Don’t start feeling bad for these guys yet, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele won last year with a record score of 29 under par.
- The average winning score over all five team editions is 25 under par.
- The average winner’s odds in that time were +3400 (34-1). If you drop the first team year where Jonas Blixt and an unknown Cam Smith won at +10000 (100-1), the last four winners were basically all favorites, with none having pre-tourney odds over +3300 (33-1) and an average of +1700 (17-1).
Successful contenders need to make birdies. The two fourball rounds are where the scoring surges, and Cantlay and Schauffele were 25 under for their two better-ball rounds last year. The par-5s are reachable along with a couple of the par-4s. Nearly 30% of the approaches come in over 200 yards, but for most that’s a 5- or 6-iron. Not to mention, they have a partner for two of the rounds. Since alternate shot adds up to half of the holes played, it is worth mentioning how important ball striking is for the group.
For each bet below, I’m looking for guys who make a ton of birdies. They need to be in good recent form. Why? It means they are playing Pete Dye courses well. The last three designated events were contested on Dye’s work. Par-4 scoring will be a key indicator since four of the par-4s are over 470 yards. Each of the par-3s measure over 200 yards and three of those four have water to contend with. TPC Louisiana can be tough inside 10 feet on the greens. Close-range putting is an edge few think about.
Alongside the long approach shots, we have a bunch of wedge approaches. Our betting teams need to both be good with a wedge and at least have one guy great from long range with his iron game. Walk-up music aside, I won’t be going down the entry list very far past the favorites. We know a couple of these teams at the very top have been busy contending lately. That wears on you mentally and physically. Just below those top teams, I see a perfect pairing ready to sweep my Zurich win, place, and show.
Win: Sam Burns and Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel won the Zurich Classic in 2018 with Scott Piercy. Now he’s paired with Sam Burns and together they have finished fourth in 2021 and runner-up last year. Horschel has incredible course history and Burns just won the WGC Match Play. Take Burns and Horschel +1400 (SI Sportsbook) to win the Zurich Classic.
Last week's pick: Cam Young never threatened to get his first win and finished T51.
Place: Burns and Horschel, Again
I believe Burns and Horschel are the best bet in New Orleans in more ways than one. Seven of their eight team tournament rounds have been in the 60s. The reason they can score is their putting. Two of the best on Tour, their work with the flatstick has them ranked third as a team in this field. They are a combined 45 under par in two years, watch as they run the score up again and easily slide into the top 10 for the third year in a row.
Take Burns and Horschel to finish inside the top 10 at +160 (SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Winner! Jordan Spieth not only cruised home to cash a top-20 ticket, he nearly won at Harbour Town.
Showdown: Burns/Horschel over Montgomery/Kitayama
Taylor Montgomery and Kurt Kitayama played together at UNLV. This stellar young pairing hasn’t made a recent cut and is losing strokes tee-to-green against this field. Their iron game is the culprit and will keep them from getting as many birdie opportunities as the other teams. Burns and Horschel on the other hand have a proven record of success on this course. Take Burns and Horschel over Montgomery and Kitayama (-130 DraftKings).
Last week's pick: No showdown cash from the Postman as J.T. Poston missed the cut by a shot and Denny McCarthy came home T25.
For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Zurich Classic and LPGA’s first major the Chevron Championship, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Cantlay/Schauffele +300
Morikawa/Homa +750
Im/Mitchell +1200
S. Kim/ T. Kim +1400
Burns/Horschel +1600
Theegala/Suh +2000
Kitayama/Montgomery +2200
Clark/Hossler +2800
M. Fitzpatrick/A. Fitzpatrick +3000
N. Taylor/Hadwin +3000
Spaun/Buckley +3000
An/Kim +3300
English/Hoge +3300
Olesen/Hojgaard +3300
Perez/Detry +3300
Dahmen/McCarthy +3500
Mullinax/Stallings +4500
Riley/Hardy +4500
T. Moore/NeSmith +4500