Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Can Aaron Judge Hit Another Home Run?)

Thursday's big league slate has plenty of home run betting possibilities, but its hard to look past the best hitter in the sport when we are discussing the card.

Aaron Judge is having one of the best hitting seasons in big league history, and after a two home run performance on Wednesday, I'm going back to him on Thursday with a favorable matchup.

Find out how I'm betting the Thursday big league slate from a home run betting perspective.

Best MLB Home Run Bets for Thursday, August 22nd

Aaron Judge (+220)
Tyler Stephenson (+600)
Colton Cowser (+540)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Aaron Judge

It’s too easy, right?

Well, when we are discussing betting value, I see plenty on Judge to hit yet another home run. After mashing two on Wednesday, I think we are getting a bump with oddsmakers shading against the likelihood of another.

Well, against Gavin Williams of the Guardians, who is in the fourth percentile in average exit velocity with a 13th percentile hard-hit rate, the best hitter in baseball should be able to keep it rolling.

Judge is near or at the top of every major hitting category, including home runs with 47. At home against a soft-tossing righty, don’t shy away from it.

Tyler Stephenson

Paul Skenes has seen his ERA tick up since the All-Star break, and while he throws as hard as anyone in the big leagues, hitters have been able to square him up and take him deep.

The rookie sensation has seen his ERA balloon to 3.13 since the All-Star break from 1.90 before it with a WHIP of 1.07, up from 0.92. He ranks in the 43rd percentile in terms of average exit velocity and 62nd percentile in terms of hard-hit rate, so players have been able to find home run worthy contact against him.

Enter: Stephenson.

The catcher of the Reds hits in the middle of the order with a ton of power, posting a .454 slugging percentage and a 73rd percentile hard-hit rate. He is hitting .292 in the month of August with five home runs this month, season long best marks already.

Colton Cowser

The Orioles rookie continues to be a key cog in the team’s pursuit of an AL East crown, and I like his chances of going yard on Thursday night against the Astros, who have a poor starter in Spencer Arrighetti on the mound and a middling bullpen behind him.

First, let’s talk about Cowser.

The AL Rookie of the Year front runner has been great for the Orioles, crushing 18 home runs with an 89th percentile barrel rate. He has found his form at the plate of late as well, hitting .307 with a .512 slugging percentage post All-Star Game, up from .219 and .418 prior to the All-Star break. He has hit six homers since then, and with an xSLG that outweighed his actual slugging percentage (.467 vs. .449) some more dingers are likely coming his way.

Arrighetti has a high fly ball rate that won’t play well in Camden Yards and has been blasted by hard contact (27th percentile). He has really struggled against left handed hitting as well, allowing a WHIP of 1.53, higher than 1.38, in addition to eight home runs.

Cowser is hitting the ball hard and a string of home runs are coming.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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