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April 23, 2017

Cesar Hernandez, 2013-2016: .281/.350/.361, 4.3% HR/FB rate (39th among 43 qualified 2B)

Cesar Hernandez, 2017: .338/.376/.563, 26.7% HR/FB rate (1st among 27 qualified 2B)

Other than a sky-high (and incredibly fluky) .434 batting average on balls in play that’s partly driven by so many flyballs sailing over the fence, there’s little in Hernandez’s batted-ball profile to suggest he’s suddenly destined to be a masher. If anything, a steep drop in his walk rate (to a career-low 5.9%) and big climb in his strikeout rate (to a career-high 27.1%) suggests that regression is coming, and it’s going to hit hard when it arrives.

20. Seattle Mariners (8–12, plus-5, LT: 19)

19. Minnesota Twins (8–10, plus-3, LT: 20)

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