AL Wild-Card Series Predictions: Expert Picks for Guardians-Rays and Mariners-Blue Jays

Which teams will be moving on to the American League Division Series next week? Our MLB writers make their picks.

The first round of the postseason begins this weekend, so naturally, that means it’s time for some predictions.

This year is the first with the expanded 12-team format, where the top two teams in each league get first-round byes, leaving the remaining clubs to play in the best-of-three Wild-Card Seres.

The winner of the Guardians-Rays series will advance to face the Yankees in New York, while the Astros will host either the Blue Jays or Mariners.

Alright, let’s not waste any more time. Here are our picks:

Tom Verducci

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Rays in three games

First one to three runs wins each game. This is a low-scoring coin flip of a series. Cleveland is the better team with the home field, and the Rays have not been playing well. But Tampa Bay plays a disruptive style in the postseason and seems to find a way to win.

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Blue Jays in three games

Righthander Luis Castillo could win a game by himself for Seattle. Toronto is not as deep offensively as you might think, but George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. are game changers who hit good pitching. The Jays win with an offensive edge.

Bichette batted .406 with seven home runs in his final 32 games.

Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

Stephanie Apstein

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Guardians in three games

I don’t think these guys can win a long series, but anything can happen in three games, especially with a team that puts the ball in play a lot.

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Blue Jays in three games

The Mariners are such a fun story, but the pitching staffs are similarly talented and the Blue Jays just have more major league hitters.

Emma Baccellieri

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Guardians in three games

On the one hand, Tampa Bay’s roster has been healthier this month than it has in ages, getting back players like Wander Franco and Tyler Glasgow, even if it is still without Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz. But Cleveland’s pitching staff strikes me as especially well-suited for the dynamics of a short series like this. This is an interesting clash in styles of play, but I think the Guardians might have a better chance to come out on top.

Franco batted .322 with an .853 OPS in 25 games since returning from injury on Sept. 9, 

Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Mariners in three games

This one’s truly close to a toss-up for me. But I’ll give the edge to the Mariners based on the strength of their pitching. (Also: I just can’t bear the idea of Seattle finally making it back to the playoffs without hosting a single game at home!)

Claire Kuwana

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Rays in three games

Look, I’m happy for the Guardians. Really, I am. But we can’t ignore the weakness of the division they came out of to get here, and without any true power behind their hitting, I don’t see them going very far. The Rays look pretty similar with a meager offense of their own, but the combo of Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow could put them on top.

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Mariners in two games

I can’t help but go with the Mariners here. First: Julio Rodríguez. He’s exactly the type of young star that shines in big moments, and the playoffs shouldn’t be any different. And barring any huge slip ups in their rotation, Seattle’s pitching—headlined by Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray—gives the team the edge in a three-game series.

Rodríguez is the frontrunner to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Lindsey Wasson/USA TODAY Sports

Will Laws

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Guardians in three games

Cleveland is, by far, the worst playoff team at hitting left-handed pitchers. That could be a major issue against Tampa Bay, which should carry Game 1 starter Shane McClanahan, possible Game 3 starter Jeffrey Springs and three above-average lefty relievers on its roster. But the Rays’ lineup is a little too banged up for my liking, and I think the Guardians will be able to manufacture just enough runs with their small-ball approach to eke out what should be a tense, low-scoring series.

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Mariners in three games

I have little confidence in Toronto’s bullpen outside of Jordan Romano (and even he isn’t what I would call an elite closer), while Seattle’s deep stable of right-handed relievers is perfectly suited to keep the Blue Jays’ righty-heavy lineup at bay.

Matt Martell

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Guardians in two games

Both teams lack the power necessary to survive in the postseason for long. The key difference here is the Guardians are much better at playing small ball.

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Mariners in three games

Toronto has a deeper lineup, but Seattle has a much better bullpen. For that reason, I’m giving the edge to the Mariners.

José Ramírez is the one true power hitter in the Guardians’ lineup. He hit 29 home runs and drove in 126 runs this season.

Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

Nick Selbe

Matchup: Guardians vs. Rays

Prediction: Guardians in three games

This is a pick on the strength of Cleveland’s form coming into the playoffs. The Guardians have won 24 of their last 30 games and have not suffered consecutive losses since Sept. 4. The Rays’ bats have been sluggish of late, while Cleveland’s three starters for this series—Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill—have combined for a 2.38 ERA in 234 innings since the start of August.

Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Prediction: Blue Jays in three games

In a matchup that looks so close on paper, I’ll give the edge to the team with the home field advantage and the better starting pitching. Robbie Ray, who’s slated to start Game 2, has not looked good of late. Neither has George Kirby, who could be in a position to piggy-back with Ray if the latter is unable to pitch deep into the game. It’s difficult to project, but Seattle’s return to postseason baseball could be short-lived if Ray and Kirby don’t get things back on track quickly.