Five Numbers That Explain the Rays’ Record-Tying 13–0 Start
Watch out, 1884 St. Louis Maroons: The 2023 Rays are gunning for the longest winning streak to open a season. Their 13–0 start ties the record for modern baseball—shared with the 1982 Braves and ’87 Brewers—and has them chasing only the aforementioned Maroons and their 20–0 start in the short-lived Union Association. Yes, it’s still early in the year. But the Rays’ wild ride has pushed their chances of winning the AL East from below 20% on Opening Day to above 55% now. And they look solid enough to keep rolling.
Here are five numbers behind their historic start to the season.
1) +71: Their Run Differential
The Rays have won each game by an average of more than five runs. They lead baseball in runs scored and fewest runs allowed. Sure, part of that could be attributed to the quality of their competition. (More on that later.) But they’ve been scoring at a truly impressive rate. They have 101 runs through 13 games: No other team has scored so much as 80. The result is a run differential of +71 … which is better than all but seven teams posted throughout all 162 games of 2022. (The list of clubs that finished with a weaker run differential includes playoff teams like the Padres, Mariners and Phillies.) In other words, Tampa Bay hasn’t simply been winning. It has been romping.
2) .576: Their Slugging Percentage
No one is doing it like them right now. There’s just one team slugging within a hundred percentage points of the Rays. (Congratulations to the Dodgers and their .495 SLG.) Tampa Bay leads baseball in home runs with 32, and what’s perhaps most impressive here is the balance of the offense. There are seven Rays with three or more homers. No other club has more than five. Almost half the league—14 teams—have either one or zero. And the Rays have nearly a whole lineup’s worth.
3) 6: The Number of Innings They’ve Trailed
You probably could have guessed as much from the run differential. But the Rays have trailed at the end of six innings across these 13 games. Just six! Of all their impressive stats, this one is perhaps the most eye-popping. No team in modern baseball has ever begun a season trailing less often. The only teams ever to do it were back in the 19th century. (Those were—surprise—the 1884 Maroons and the 1884 New York Gothams of the National League.) The Rays are winning, they’re winning big and they’re winning with nary a hint of suspense.
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Lowe’s team-leading 1.281 OPS ranks second in MLB behind the Blue Jays’ Matt Chapman.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
4) 1.281: Brandon Lowe’s OPS
Yes, just about everyone on this roster is hitting well, and there have been plenty of standouts, including Wander Franco, Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena. But Brandon Lowe’s performance has been particularly stunning. The second baseman is slugging in a way he traditionally hasn’t—his five home runs lead the team—and he’s drawing plenty of walks, too. His Baseball Savant page is dotted with red bubbles, indicating his high percentile outcomes in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage and a bevy of expected stats. Coming off a season marred by injuries, Lowe has seen everything click for him this year.
5) .399: The Average 2022 Winning Percentage of Their Opponents So Far
Let’s be clear: The Rays’ strength of schedule (or lack thereof) does not discredit their success. But it’s worth pointing out. Yes, it’s hard to win 13 consecutive games against even soft competition, but it’s also hard to have asked for a schedule much softer than this one. (While that .399 winning percentage refers to last year’s records from these opponents, there’s no reason to believe this year will hold better for the Tigers, A’s, Nationals and Red Sox. If anything, it might be even worse.) That doesn’t invalidate what the Rays have done. It simply contextualizes it. And it should make it all the more exciting to watch them finally match up against some tougher competition this weekend. The Rays now head to Toronto to play three against the Blue Jays. Enjoy—because that will be followed by series against the Reds and White Sox.
