The Braves Offense Isn’t Just Great, It’s Historic
It’s time to start talking about the Braves’ offense as the best since the Big Red Machine. Hyperbole? Not when you put what they are doing into context.
This is the toughest age to get a hit since the mound was lowered in 1969. The MLB batting average this year is .248. The only lower averages since the mound was lowered were in ’69, ’72 and 2020, ’21 and ’22. In this pitching-rich environment, the Braves are hitting .275, the highest by any team in the past six years.
You get the point. This is an outlier offense in today’s high-velocity, high-spin game. But enough about batting average. For a better perspective, the Braves’ adjusted OPS as compared to the rest of MLB is 129, meaning they are 29% better than league average.
How impressive is that? Only two teams in baseball history were that much better than the teams it competed against, and both had Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig: the famed 1927 Yankees and the ’31 Yankees.
| Team | sOPS+ | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
1927 Yankees | 136 | Won WS |
1931 Yankees | 130 | 2nd place |
2023 Braves | 129 | ? |
1976 Reds | 129 | Won WS |
1936 Yankees | 129 | Won WS |
1933 Yankees | 129 | 2nd place |
1953 Dodgers | 128 | Lost WS |
1905 Giants | 128 | Won WS |
It’s been almost half a century since we’ve seen a team stand out like this. You just don’t see outlier offenses in the modern game because of free agency, the draft, international players and the flow of information. In the wild-card era, the previous best offenses over full seasons were the 2003 Red Sox (125), ’11 Red Sox (124) and ’19 Astros, and ’09 Yankees (123).
Of the previous top seven AL and NL offenses since 1901 as ranked by sOPS+, five made the World Series, with four of them winning it. Those offensive juggernauts went 19–7 in postseason play. Pitching and defense win championships most of the time, but that’s proof an outlier offense can also carry a team to a title. The ’76 Reds outscored playoff opponents 41–19 and outhomered them 7–2 in their 7–0 run.
As much as we love small ball in October, nothing sways the outcome of postseason games in this era like home runs. That makes sense. As hits become rarer, the quick strike becomes even more impactful. You can play with all kinds of numbers to crack the postseason code, but nothing influences who wins and loses a postseason game like the second home run for a team. That’s why you see hitters selling out with their swings even with two strikes in the right situations.
| HRs | G | W-L | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
0 Home Runs | 178 | 43–135 | .242 |
1 Home Run | 215 | 107–108 | .498 |
2 Home Runs | 149 | 97–52 | .651 |
3 Home Runs | 49 | 38–11 | .776 |
4+ Home Runs | 27 | 24–3 | .889 |
And that’s why the Braves are such a dangerous postseason team. They hit the most home runs—by far. Averaging just about two homers per game, they are on a pace for 314 home runs. The MLB record is 307 by the 2019 Twins.
Just like the 1927 Yankees, the Braves lead the majors in runs per game, homers, batting average, on-base, slugging and total bases. The ’27 Yankees also had the worst strikeout rate, a category that is far more impactful in today’s game. The Braves are tied for fifth-lowest strikeout rate (21.0%), so they don’t pay a heavy tariff when it comes to collecting all those homers. That’s also important in today’s postseason environment. Six of the past eight champions ranked among the top four toughest teams to strike out:
| Team | SO% | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|
2015 Royals | 15.9% | 1 |
2016 Cubs | 21.1% | T-14 |
2017 Astros | 17.3% | 1 |
2018 Red Sox | 19.9% | 3 |
2019 Nationals | 20.9% | 4 |
2020 Dodgers | 20.3% | T-2 |
2021 Braves | 24% | T-22 |
2022 Astros | 19.5% | 2 |
What kind of pitching does it take to beat the Braves? Forget about left-handed pitching. Left-handed starters are 3–13 against Atlanta. Framber Valdez of Houston is the only lefty to get through six innings in a win against the Braves. The Braves mash lefties better than any team in the past 15 full seasons:
| Team | SLG |
|---|---|
2023 Braves | .537 |
2019 Twins | .521 |
2019 Yankees | .506 |
2019 Astros | .505 |
What about velocity? Forget it. The Braves slug 53 points higher against fastballs than every team this year. They are the best fastball-munching machine since pitch tracking began 15 years ago:
| Team | SLG |
|---|---|
2023 Braves | .541 |
2019 Twins | .536 |
2019 Yankees | .536 |
2017 Astros | .520 |
O.K. What about breaking pitches? Forget that, too:
| Team | SLG |
|---|---|
2019 Astros | .464 |
2023 Braves | .462 |
2023 Rangers | .452 |
2014 Rockies | .445 |
That leaves off-speed pitches. O.K., maybe you have a shot against the Braves if you can deaden the ball with precision. Atlanta is “only” the fifth-best team this year slugging against off-speed (.429). That’s hardly a weakness to exploit.
And that’s the point: Atlanta’s offense is so deep it has no obvious weakness. I haven’t even mentioned its team speed yet. No team has ever hit 250 homers and stolen 125 bases. The Braves are on pace for 314 and 134.
They are the best team at taking the extra base (51%). They go first to third on singles more than any other team (89).
Atlanta is showing no signs of letting up. It has slugged .532 since the All-Star break, up from .492 before it. We’ve known for months the Braves are the best team in baseball. The way they are slugging and running the bases, we should also start thinking about them as a historically great offense.
