Breaking Down MLB’s MVP Races With One Month to Go

For much of the past few seasons, MLB’s MVP races have felt over before they’d begun. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were expected to take home the awards all season while everyone else fought for second place.

Not this year.

As we round the corner into the final month of the 2026 MLB season, both MVP races have seen significant shifts away from the two reigning winners. Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has surged past Ohtani to become the National League’s odds-on favorite in the wake of a knee injury that’s kept the Dodgers’ two-way star off the mound since July 3, while Astros DH Yordan Álvarez has taken control of the AL race after Aaron Judge suffered a fractured rib that’s kept him sidelined since May 31.

There is a lot of baseball left to be played, and neither race is over. Plenty can change as contenders race toward the postseason.

Here’s a look at where both MVP races stand entering the final month of the season.

National League MVP

Frontrunner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs CF

This has gone from a fierce competition to a runaway. Crow-Armstrong has always been a phenomenal defender in center field, and now he’s returned to being the force at the plate he was in the middle of last season. The Cubs star’s resurgence at the plate has made him perhaps the NL’s best hitter and fielder this year despite a slow start.

PCA currently leads MLB in fWAR (8.6) and bWAR (7.9). He leads the NL in slugging (.548) and wRC+ (1553), and is tied for second in OPS (.922). The 24-year-old has also gone 30–30, with 33 home runs and 32 steals, and could become the seventh member of the 40–40 club. Additionally, he leads the NL in outs above average with 23. He’s also been incredibly clutch, as evidenced by his walk-off home run against the White Sox on August 17.

PCA REACHES THE 30/30 MARK IN WALK-OFF FASHION. pic.twitter.com/1JvfTLDk02
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 18, 2026

He’s the overwhelming favorite to win the award, and unless he goes into the kind of prolonged slump we saw last year and into this season, he’s likely to win it.

Contender: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers SP/DH

Pretty much everyone assumed that with his return to the mound full-time this season, Ohtani would backstroke to his fourth MVP win in a row and fifth overall. Not so fast. The Dodgers’ superstar has been limited to 14 starts and is still working himself back from injury. He was brilliant when he was pitching, going 8–2 with a 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings.

At the plate, Ohtani has been one of baseball’s best hitters, but compared to his recent seasons, the numbers aren't quite as dominant. After recording OPS marks above 1.000 the past three seasons, he’s slashing .285/.385/.542 (.927 OPS) with 30 home runs and 80 RBIs. He’s actually tied with Crow-Armstrong for the NL OPS lead and is third in on-base percentage and wRC+ (149). His combined fWAR (7.0) ranks second in the majors, and he’s third in combined bWAR (6.8).

A big September could elevate him above Crow-Armstrong, who is quite streaky, but this race feels close to over.

Dark horse: Kyle Schwarber, Phillies DH

Schwarber has cooled off since his early-season surge that had some wondering if he’d top 60 bombs this season. After a slow July (three home runs, seven RBIs), he’s perked back up in August, hitting seven homers with 19 RBIs and an .808 OPS.

So far this season, Schwarber is slashing .243/.358/.531 with 40 homers, 81 RBIs and a 137 wRC+, albeit with a league-leading 191 strikeouts. The 33-year-old is hurt by not playing in the field regularly, which has suppressed his fWAR and bWAR, as they both sit at 2.8.

Realistically, this is a two-horse race, but if Schwarber heats up down the stretch and the Phillies somehow overtake the Braves to win the NL East, he could shove his way into contention.

The pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez — Yordan Álvarez entered Friday leading or tied for the lead in the AL Triple crown categories. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

American League MVP

Frontrunner: Yordan Álvarez, Astros DH/LF

Like Crow-Armstrong, this has become a runaway for Álvarez. He has been crushing the ball all season and has essentially carried an underachieving Astros team into first place in the AL West. His pursuit of a Triple Crown will garner a lot of headlines in September.

Álvarez currently leads the AL in batting average (.319) and home runs (36), and is tied for first in RBIs with Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (91). He leads MLB in on-base percentage (.434), slugging (.614), wRC+ (183) and, obviously, OPS (1.051). All that is to say, he’s been the best hitter in the majors by a wide margin. Despite only playing in the field 21 times this season, his 5.9 bWAR ranks third in the AL, and his 5.9 fWAR is second.

This is Álvarez’s award to lose at this point as he enters the final month of the season as a heavy favorite.

Contender: Junior Caminero, Rays 3B

While his odds of winning are rapidly diminishing, Caminero is still the second-most likely winner. The 23-year-old has become a legitimate star on the American League’s best team as the Rays distance themselves from the pack in the AL East.

Caminero is currently slashing .280/.366/.531 with 35 home runs and 84 RBIs. He ranks third in the AL with an .897 OPS, is fourth in wRC+ (146), but is only ninth in bWAR (4.4) and 10th in fWAR (4.0). Still, he’s having a huge season for the best team in his league, and if he somehow has a monster September and Álvarez falls off, he could be right there in contention.

We’ll see what the final month of the season brings. Caminero is on the radar but needs a big push down the stretch to get into contention.

Dark Horse: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals SS

There’s no question anymore that Witt is the best all-around player in the American League. His defense is what separates him from other contenders. He currently leads MLB in outs above average at 24 while playing shortstop, the most difficult position on the diamond.

It’s not shocking that despite missing time with a back injury, Witt leads the AL in bWAR (6.2) and fWAR (6.3), despite having what by his standards is only a decent season at the plate. He’s currently slashing .289/.366/.459 with 16 home runs, 49 RBIs, a 127 wRC+ and 36 stolen bases. Those aren’t the offensive numbers of an MVP, but on pure value, he’s been the AL’s best player this season.

Two things are working against Witt. First, he missed 19 games this season, meaning his WAR advantage over other contenders would be even higher if he hadn’t been injured. Second, the Royals are awful, which diminishes the shine on his play. Kansas City is currently last in the weak AL Central and sits 7 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot. It’s hard to win over MVP voters when you’re not playing meaningful games.

The pick: Yordan Álvarez

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