The AL MVP Race Is Wide Open and Full of Flawed Candidates

This season will mark the first time since 2019 that Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani won’t be named the American League MVP.

Bobby Witt Jr. leads the American League in WAR but is on pace to hit just 20 home runs. | Ed Zurga/Getty Images

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Halfway through the season, the American League is a monument to mediocrity. The Yankees have a run differential of +120. Only three other teams in the league have a positive run differential, none more than the Rays’ +20. The Red Sox, a bad baseball team, are five games out of a playoff spot. The Rangers, a losing team, hold a wild-card spot.

No AL team has made the playoffs in a 162-game season with fewer wins than the 84 of the 1984 Kansas City Royals. We might see two AL teams limbo under that low bar.

The same slow-speed car chase is happening with the AL MVP race, which for the first full season since 2019 will not be won by Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. It was so long ago DJ LeMahieu and Nelson Cruz finished in the top 10 behind the winner, Mike Trout.

The AL MVP race this year is a contest among flawed candidates, many of whom play for losing teams. Of the top 12 players in the AL ranked by WAR, 10 play for losing teams. Cody Bellinger and Miguel Vargas are the lone exceptions.
Only 10 times has a player from a losing team won an MVP, with the last four occasions in the AL coming from the Angels (Ohtani twice and Trout twice). Only three players have won an MVP playing for a team that lost 90 games or more: Trout (72–90 Angels in 2019), Alex Rodriguez (71–91 Rangers in 2003) and Cal Ripken (67–95 Orioles in 1991).

As teams passed the 81-game mark last week, here are the leading contenders for AL MVP, warts and all.

1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros

A DH from a losing team winning MVP? That’s never happened. Ohtani did win MVPs with losing Angels teams in 2021 and 2023, but he also made 23 starts on the mound in each of those years. Alvarez has played only 18 games in the outfield. But Alvarez is the favorite because he is best hitter in the league. He leads in the AL in homers, OBP, slugging and total bases.

2. Nick Kurtz, Athletics

The league leader in runs, walks and RBIs is drafting just behind Alvarez. He’ll need to overcome massive home/road splits. Kurtz’s OPS drops 293 points when he is away from the West Sacramento launching pad.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

He is the league leader in WAR, which carries weight with voters. But Witt’s power numbers are down, and the Royals haven’t played a meaningful game after getting off to a 7-16 start. Witt has hit 10 home runs. No player has won the MVP with a losing team without hitting at least 29 homers (Trout in 2016). All 10 MVPs from losing teams were sluggers, averaging 44.5 home runs.

4. Ben Rice, Yankees

Nice power, but he is tied for 29th in the league in WAR and, with a .211 June, trending downward.

5. Byron Buxton, Twins

At age 32, Buxton is posting his highest SLG in any season with at least 300 plate appearances. But with a .186 batting average with runners in scoring position, Buxton has driven himself in more times (25) than a teammate (18).

6. Junior Caminero, Rays

A potential 40-home run slugger playing third base for a winning team has tons of potential in this field. But Caminero also has huge splits in his OPS at home (1.071) and on the road (.748) and has poor numbers with runners in scoring position (.208).

7. Cody Bellinger, Yankees

He has the highest WAR for any player on a winning team. But his home/road OPS splits are shockingly different: 1.128 at Yankee Stadium and .576 on the road.  

Cody Bellinger has his best on-base percentage (.361) since his 2019 NL MVP season. | Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

“The Belli Thing”

Watching Bellinger battle Boston reliever Aroldis Chapman on Saturday was the AI synopsis of how he has evolved as a hitter. After falling behind 0-and-2, Bellinger saw nine more pitches, fouling off five of them with an abbreviated swing as if playing a game of pepper. He became the first hitter this season to foul off four pitches from Chapman at 99.9 mph and faster. The epic at-bat ended with Bellinger taking ball four.

Four years ago, Bellinger struck out 150 times while taking only 38 walks. This year only Bellinger, Kevin McGonigle of the Tigers and Steven Kwan of the Guardians have more walks than strikeouts in the AL.

“First of all, he’s a great athlete, so he’s evolved really well,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone says. “Early on in his career when he won the MVP, he was just such a great athlete, an explosive player. Then he had the shoulder injury, which really messed him up. It affected his swing and obviously affected his performance. But I think he re-invented himself once he got through that. He evolved into a different kind of player, even last year.

“I think his greatest tool is his athleticism, but also with that is the bat-to-ball. He’s got different swings, he can touch everything. This year, he still has the Belli thing in him, that’s special, but he’s walking. That’s been huge.”

And that weird home/road split? Don’t overthink it. 

“One of the things that attracted us to him a couple of years ago and this offseason was we thought his swing was made for Yankee Stadium,” Boone says. “So, I do think there’s a component where he’s built for Yankee Stadium. So, I’m not surprised he’s better at home. But I think it’s an anomaly that it’s as big as it is.”

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