Astros Have a Rising Pitching Prospect They Could Lose This Offseason

The Houston Astros have a lot of immediate decisions coming up with all of the approaching MLB deadlines. One of the more interesting situations is with a pitching prospect who hasn’t spent a lot of time on the mound.

Joey Dixon isn’t at the top of anyone’s conversations about the Astros. He isn’t even one of the team’s top-ranked prospects. That all could be changing.

Unfortunately, Dixon has spent the last three seasons dealing with injuries. But he is finally healthy enough to start showing everyone what he can do. In the Arizona Fall League, he has started to impress.

That performance is coming at an important time for both Dixon and the organization. Houston is going to have to decide whether to protect the right-hander from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. If they don’t put him on the 40-man roster, the team will risk losing him.

His recent numbers argue for that protection but the decision won’t likely be that simple.

Astros Prospect Finally Gets Opportunity

Dixon was selected by the Astros in the 2023 MLB Draft, but since then he has not spent a lot of time on the mound. His journey has been interrupted by one injury after another.

The talented right-hander had to have Tommy John surgery in April 2024 and then elbow nerve surgery in October 2025.

Finally in May of 2026 Dixon was able to make two appearances for Single-A Fayetteville. Then, another setback.

He tore the capsule in his right shoulder. He had thrown just 6 1/3 innings.

What’s even more astounding is that since Dixon was drafted, he has only pitched 7 1/3 innings in regular-season professional games. That’s it.

He is going to be 25 in January.

For Dixon, it is probably a huge blessing that his recent performance has gone so well. He is finally showing that he might have something worth developing.

He’s made four starts in Scottsdale at the Arizona Fall League. He hasn’t allowed a run in eight innings. He has surrendered just three hits while striking out 13 batters.

According to MLB.com, Dixon has been throwing some incredible fastballs. They have reached between 95 and 97 miles per hour. His final pitch during Tuesday’s outing was 99.2 mph.

No one can deny that those are encouraging numbers.

Houston Faces Difficult Decision

Yes, the recent performance has been intriguing, but the Astros are going to face a difficult decision here.

In order to protect Dixon, they will need to add him to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft deadline. That’s going to be a complicated decision.

The main question surrounding him is if he can stay healthy. He has less experience than most first-year players just out of the draft.

Eight scoreless innings don’t erase three seasons' worth of injuries. He still has a lot of development ahead. He is a big risk.

On the other hand, the Astros need pitching depth and don't want to make the mistake of overlooking a potentially valuable arm.

There is probably no right answer here given Dixon's experience. He’s only provided a glimpse of his ability and he sure hasn’t proven he is durable.

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