Astros Must See Two Things from Cristian Javier in Next Injury Rehab Start

The Houston Astros have scheduled injured right-handed starting pitcher Cristian Javier’s next next rehab start and they hope to see more than what they saw in his first.

Javier will start on Tuesday with Triple-A Sugar Land while the Astros will be on the road. The right-hander made his first rehab start last week with Double-A Corpus Christi and while he threw 28 pitches, it didn't go as well as hoped.

Every pitcher’s rehab is different, but history offers a guide on the two things the Astros need to see on Tuesday.

Cristian Javier’s Next Rehab Start

Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (left) and general manager Dana Brown (right) talk on the field. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The first part is easy. The Astros need to see more pitches. Javier threw 28 in his first game and most starting pitchers then ladder anywhere from 10 to 15 pitches in each rehab start. The goal is to have the pitcher prepare for a full workload in their first start back in the Majors. The acceptable threshold in that last rehab start is 75 pitches.

For Javier to reach that he’ll probably need four rehab starts. He needs to throw anywhere from 42 to 45 pitches on Tuesday, which would allow him to scaffold to 60 pitches in the third start and 75 pitches in the last start. Given the severity of his injury — a Grade 2 shoulder strain — four injury rehab starts is probably required.

The second is effectiveness. While most teams don’t get worked up about effectiveness in a first rehab start, Javier’s performance for Corpus Christi should be of some concern. He didn't get out of the first inning and only recorded two outs. He gave up two hits, two earned runs and walked two batters while he struck out two.

This was in one inning against hitters that aren’t Major League ready yet. The Astros probably aren't making a big deal out of it internally. But if he’s that ineffective against Triple-A batters on Tuesday, there could be some concern.

Even though Javier and another injured starter, Hunter Brown had the same injury and went on the injured list around the same time, it was always expected that Javier would need more time to recover and rehab than Brown. Last year's Cy Young finalist is getting one more rehab start on Wednesday, also at Sugar Land, but the expectation is that he'll ladder up to his return to the majors the following week when the Detroit Tigers come to Houston.

Javier isn't close to reaching the majors, especially if the Astros are using the same approach. Astros general manager Dana Brown said before Brown started his rehab process that the right-handed needed to reach 75 pitches before he could throw in a Major League game. Brown is close to that figure. Javier is not. That’s why his rehab start is significant.

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