Can Houston Find Another Steven Okert Without Overpaying?

JoJo Romero is among the market alternatives, but his recent metrics raise some questions about his ability to sustain his dominance.

Houston Astros pitcher Steven Okert (48) delivers a pitch. Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Only two left-handed relief pitchers have an ERA below 2.00 when pitching on just one day of rest over the span of the last three seasons. One of them could be one of the most interesting gambles among the free agents available to the Houston Astros: former Dodger Alex Vesia, with a 1.24 ERA in 59 relief appearances, to whom I recently dedicated a column about why he should be a key option.

Who is the other pitcher? Definitely a familiar and somewhat undervalued arm who helped the Astros handle the pressure in difficult moments over the last two seasons, pitching in 42% of the team’s games. I think that is enough to know who I am talking about: left-hander Steven Okert, who remains behind Vesia with a 1.66 ERA in 55 appearances.

Of course, it is not necessary to remember that not all relief pitchers have the same ability to pitch on consecutive days or be available and have enough consistency to handle a heavy workload throughout the exhausting and challenging 162-game regular season.

Houston Astros pitcher Steven Okert (48). Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Astros paid $3.525 million for two seasons of Okert, while his current valuation as a free agent is around $6.6 million for one season. At this point, it's hard to find a reliever capable of projecting similar performance for less money.

Could JoJo Romero Be the Best Option for Houston?

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher JoJo Romero (33). Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Among the main names who could fit Okert’s profile is left-hander JoJo Romero, who pitched for the St. Louis Cardinals in the first half and then went on to reinforce the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen after being acquired at the trade deadline, contributing among the relievers who helped win the World Series.

Romero has a projected $6 million AAV, an investment that looks affordable for Houston. It is quite close to the price they could have paid to keep Okert. Granted, the Astros have probably decided not to invest in Okert because of his age, as he will turn 36 in July 2027 and his projections could lead to regressions that would not allow him to sustain again the high workload he took on over the last two campaigns.

That said, Romero, 30, does not seem like a misguided option and over the last two seasons he has been able to handle high workloads by recording at least 55 relief appearances since 2024. However, his peripheral metrics raise questions about how much of his recent production he can sustain in 2027.

If we use his last three seasons as the main sample window, Romero’s 3.67 xFIP in 2026 has been his best, at least clearing up doubts about his high 4.12 mark last year. The improvements are due to a slight increase in his strikeout rate from 7.78 in 2024 to 8.63 this year, with fewer walks than last year (2.88 BB/9 compared to 4.28), while his ground-ball rate continued to stand out as one of the main complements that sparked the Brewers’ interest. Even so, there are a couple of major problems here:

1. His drop from the 63rd to the 24th percentile in Whiff%, which has made him more vulnerable to contact. In fact, batters ended up getting better average exit velocities against his pitches this year, causing him to also have a sharp drop from the 91st to the 12th percentile in Avg EV.
2. He lost command of his breaking pitches and offspeed, seeing another considerable decline, from the 85th and 90th percentiles in breaking to the 49th percentile in 2026, and from the 65th percentile in offspeed last year to just the 13th percentile this year.

Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Jojo Romero (33). Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Those inconsistencies caused Romero to fall from the 79th percentile in Pitching to the 44th, which leaves some concerns, especially because of the status expected of him as a middle-inning left-handed arm capable of handling pressure. In 2026, his most efficient pitch was the sinker, which he used 45.3% of the time and recorded a +6 Run Value, but it is not the best weapon he has for striking batters out or generating whiffs, with a low rate of just 14.5% whiffs.

So his biggest options for attacking in key counts remain the changeup and the sweeper, but both suffered regressions. The league improved its xSLG from .260 to .422 against the sweeper, one of the main reasons that caused the RV to fall from +9 to +0 in 2026. The situation with the changeup was somewhat different, as he continues to maintain control of hard contact — the xSLG dropped from .317 to .303 this year — but Romero has stopped resolving important at-bats the way he used to, and the RV plummeted from +1 to -3.

Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy waits for pitcher Jojo Romero (33). | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Something Romero still maintains as one of his main advantages is his dominance against left-handed hitters, who have hit just .202/.281/.301 against him in 389 matchups throughout his career. So Houston will have to decide what carries more weight: whether to bet on JoJo and allow him to correct the inconsistencies in his lack of command and recover his sweeper and changeup combination, or opt for another market option that could include betting on a right-handed pitcher instead of strengthening the bullpen’s left-handed profile.