Analytics Project Astros Star for Enormous Power Resurgence in 2026

The Houston Astros were missing out on one of their best players in 2025, but Fangraphs projects a huge resurgence in 2026 from the power-hitting lefty.

Aug 20, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of the hat and glove of Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (not pictured) against the Atlanta Braves in the eleventh inning at Truist Park. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros in 2025 were completely unable to get healthy for the vast majority of the season, and ultimately, it hampered their ability to get to the postseason.

While the roster certainly wasn't ready for a deep push into late October, it could have been in contention for a good first-round series, but many of the best players on the team missed around a quarter of the games or more.

A notable example was Yordan Álvarez, who only ended up playing 48 games in 2025 due to various injuries holding him back. While he was still productive at that time, he was nowhere near the same player as the previous few years, and the Astros desperately need his production to be a highly competitive franchise.

Yordan rules. #Postseason pic.twitter.com/yaQAKx8bFw

— MLB (@MLB) October 11, 2022

Getting him back healthy in 2026 will be crucial, and seeing if he is still the same level of player is also important. According to Fangraphs' projection statistics for the 2026 season, Houston fans can expect him to not only return to form but also showcase high-level production that could lead to him being a no-doubter for a Silver Slugger Award.

What Does Fangraphs Predict Alvarez' 2026 Season to Look Like?

Sep 4, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates his home run with teammates against the New York Yankees in the third inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

According to 2026 projections from Fangraphs, Álvarez is in for an absolutely enormous 2026 season. Their metrics place him at the top of the team in many batting categories, and put him among the best in the league in others.

He is projected to slash .299/.396/.557 with 30 home runs, 91 runs, 85 RBI, a 12.7% walk rate, 17.0% strikeout rate, 161 wRC+, and 4.7 fWAR total on the year. This would be relatively similar to his past few seasons overall, and would be exactly what Houston needs to put themselves in a position to compete, especially if some of their other key players produce around or slightly above average.

While their projections don't have him being particularly valuable on defense, that likely wouldn't be much of an issue given how much he produces at the plate. Playing him at designated hitter quite often just to keep him healthy will be key, similar to his 2024 split, where he played 94 games there and 53 in the outfield combined across all spots.

Health has not been much of an issue for him over the years, as he went four seasons having played 114 or more games each. Last season was concerning, though, and hopefully he comes back without too much of an issue and returns to the form he had back in 2024.