Bad Luck Has Been Driving Force in Astros Slugger's Poor Performance

A run of bad luck has kept the Houston Astros' key slugger from performing as expected.

Apr 27, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a home run during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Many expected the Houston Astros' offense to face a drastic decline this year after two major departures from the lineup over the winter, but not many expected it to be this bad.

Entering play on Wednesday, the team has combined for just a .676 OPS across their first 35 games, ranking 23rd in MLB. Comparing that with all of 2024, the Astros finished that campaign with a .740 OPS, ranking eighth.

Trading away Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs and letting Alex Bregman walk in free agency have played a major part in the decline. Those two players are still raking with their new teams, with OPS marks of .957 and .973, respectively, which would rank as the top two on the team.

The Astros still have good batters in their lineup, however, they just have not performed to the best of their ability to this point. After an injury sent Yordan Alvarez to the 10-day injured list, the slugger's run of bad luck ending would prove beneficial for the team.

Yordan Alvarez's Struggles Have Stemmed from Bad Luck

While most point to Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani as the two best hitters in MLB, Alvarez has quietly been right there with those two superstars throughout his career. Entering 2025, Alvarez carried a .298/.390/.583 line with 164 home runs, 466 RBI, and a 166 OPS+ across 2,668 plate appearances in 629 games.

Like the rest of the Houston lineup, it has been a struggle for the slugger to get things going this year. To this point in the season, he has only batted .210/.306/.340 with three home runs, 18 RBI, and an 86 OPS+ across 121 plate appearances in 29 games.

The underlying metrics point to it being a lot of bad luck for Alvarez. His BABIP on the year is down drastically from where it normally sits, .222 this year to a .317 career mark, indicating he has hit into a lot of bad luck on his balls in play.

His Baseball Savant page tells the story of even more bad luck, too, with a lot of red and an xSLG of .495, 155 points higher than his current total in that metric. The slugger is still driving the ball with an average exit velocity of 94.0 MPH, 95th percentile in MLB, but it has mostly been directly at an opposing fielder.

The short stint on the injured list should be beneficial for Alvarez and his production at the plate. Regression back to the mean is coming for the slugger, and it will be a major boon for the team when Alvarez's run of bad luck comes to an end.