Houston Astros Pitcher's Performance May Take Step Back This Upcoming Season

After a breakout 2024, a Houston Astros pitcher has been predicted to regress this year.

Feb 25, 2025; West Palm Beach, Florida, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco (56) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros had to deal with a lot of injuries to their pitching staff during the 2024 season.

That led to several players taking on larger-than-anticipated roles, such as Ronel Blanco, who was called upon to take the spot of future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in the rotation.

Those are some massive shoes to fill, but Blanco wasn’t phased.

In his first start of the season, he fired a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays. His second start, against the Texas Rangers, was another six shutout innings.

From unheralded to key contributor, Blanco was a key part of the team’s success throughout the year. He was reliable, making 30 appearances and throwing 167.1 innings with a 2.80 ERA.

Heading into 2025, he is set to be the No. 3 starter behind ace Framber Valdez and emerging star Hunter Brown.

However, there are some concerns about Blanco being able to replicate the level of success that he had in 2024.

Ryan Phillips of Sports Illustrated has cautioned that some regression to the mean could occur because of vast differences in his actual production and some advanced and predictive metrics.

“Given the wide gulf between Blanco's xFIP (4.09) and his ERA (2.80), it's fair to assume there will be some regression here. A pitcher reliant on soft contact can’t be expected to prevent base hits as effectively as Blanco did last year,” Phillips wrote.

That xFIP number suggests that he was on the receiving end of some elite defensive performances and good luck. He was the best pitcher in baseball at limiting hits with a league-leading 6.1 H/9.

His approach on the mound changed drastically, as Blanco was no longer worried about blowing away opponents. Inducing soft contact became his priority as he saw his ground ball rate jump from 34.7% previously to 39.9% in 2024.

An average exit velocity of 88.7 mph and hard-hit rate of 35.5% were both well below the league average as well.

As is the case with several pitchers before Blanco, the Astros pitching staff was able to get the most out of his stuff, making slight adjustments to his pitch usage. His changeup was utilized more, while his slider was relied upon less frequently and both became better weapons.

There is going to be some variance in production when a pitcher relies on inducing soft contact and his defense making plays behind him.

Blanco may not produce an ERA under 3.00 again in 2025, but he should still be a useful performer. Given how many pitchers the team is relying on coming back from injury, he will be counted on to eat innings throughout the year.

Even if he produces closer to his FIP of 4.15, he will not be a below-replacement-level talent this season.