USATSI_18649897 — © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Astros' Ace Verlander is Having a Historically Great Season

Houston Astros starter Justin Verlander is on pace to have the most dominant age-39 season since Roger Clemens.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Publish date:
Jul 8, 2022 4:00 PM EDT

In this story:

Justin Verlander pitched six innings on Thursday afternoon, as the Houston Astros defeated the Kansas City Royals by a score of 5-2. The ace right-hander struck out eight and allowed just one earned run. It was his 12th quality start in 16 appearances, and with it, he lowered his ERA to 2.00.

A 2.00 ERA at the halfway point of the season would be an incredible accomplishment for any pitcher, let alone a 39-year-old coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Only two starting pitchers at this age or older have ever posted an ERA lower than 2.00 in a full season, and they just so happen to be two of the greatest (if not the two greatest) of all time: Cy Young and Roger Clemens.

Young put up a 1.99 ERA in 1907, when he was 40 years old. He was even better in his age-41 season, posting a 1.26 ERA. Nearly one hundred years later, Clemens put up a 1.87 ERA in 2005, at 42 years old.

That's it. That's the complete list of pitchers as old as Verlander who have posted an ERA lower than his is right now. And unlike Verlander, neither of those pitchers was coming off of a two-season absence and a major elbow surgery.

Moreover, Verlander is pitching at this elite level without the help of any performance enhancing substances and while facing much stronger competition than Young ever did—Young played pre-integration and in a time when the league-leading slugger hit just 12 home runs.

Verlander also has to face the designated hitter, as opposed to Clemens, who played when the Astros were still in the National League, and Young, who played long before the implementation of the DH.

Roger Clemens pitched for the Houston Astros back when the team still played in the National League.
© Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

However, while baseball has long since been integrated, PEDs no longer run rampant, and the designated hitter is here to stay, this current season has been a down year for offense, especially in the American League. The average ERA in the AL is just 3.84, nearly half a run lower than it was in 2021.

Teams are scoring less across the board, and that has helped Verlander to maintain his low ERA. In another year, his stats might not be quite so pristine.

With that being the case, the metric ERA+ comes in handy. ERA+ is adjusted so that 100 is always league average in any given season. That makes it particularly useful for comparing players across different time periods.

By ERA+, Clemens and Young still have the best two seasons ever for a pitcher 39 or older, although this metric favors Clemens by a significant margin. Verlander is right behind them, with the third-best ERA+ ever for a qualified starting pitcher of his advanced age.

Clemens (2005): 226 ERA+
Young (1908): 195 ERA+
Verlander (2022): 190 ERA+

Can Verlander keep it up?

This is the million dollar question. Verlander has been historically great so far, but can he keep it up through the final three months of the season?

The simple answer? Probably not. That's no knock on the two-time Cy Young winner, who is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, but a 2.00 ERA is almost impossible to maintain. Historical greatness is historical greatness for a reason—because it is so incredibly rare.

Be that as it may, if anyone can do it, it's Verlander. He still throws a wicked 95 MPH fastball, and he follows it up with a nasty slider and a nearly unhittable curveball. He also pitches for a team that plays spectacular defense, which will help him keep runs off the board.

Perhaps the biggest factor in Verlander's favor is that he's already halfway there. Only five starting pitchers aged 39+ have ever posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their first 16 starts: Young, Clemens, Phil Niekro, and Dutch Leonard.

Niekro struggled in the second half, allowing a 4.99 ERA in July and a 6.50 ERA in September. Leonard held it together, and while he wasn't quite as good in the second half, he still finished with a 2.51 ERA. At the time, it was the lowest ERA ever for a National League starter 39 or older.

The most likely path for Verlander is one much like Leonard's. If Verlander puts up an ERA in the low-threes for the rest of the season (something in between his 3.03 xERA and 3.26 FIP) he will finish with an ERA in the mid-twos.

While that wouldn't be quite as impressive as his ERA is right now, it would still rank among the greatest age-39+ pitching performances in baseball history.