A's Lawrence Butler Starting to Break Out
Oakland A's outfielder Lawrence Butler talked with his manager Mark Kotsay when the team was in Detroit about a week ago. The chat was about making a little adjustment to make sure that Butler's timing at the plate was synced up.
The day after they spoke, Butler went 2-for-3 with a double in Detroit, bumping his average from .125 to .185. This past week the 23-year-old accounted for both runs batted in during Friday's walk-off win against the Nationals, and showed off some excellent defense in the field. He went 5-for-19 in the Texas and Washington series, along with four walks. That was good for a .263 average and a .391 OBP.
Obviously hitting the home run on Friday night to put the A's up 1-0 was eye opening. Not only was it his first homer of the season, but it's also the hardest he's hit the ball at the MLB level at 113.1 miles per hour. That max exit velo currently ranks in the top six percent of the league. The rest of his Baseball Savant page looks pretty good, too.
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Those expected stats really stand out, like his expected batting average (xBA) of .290, and the reason it's so high is because of his barrel and hard hit rates. He's squaring the ball up consistently, he's just been a bit unlucky with the results. His overall launch angle is at 14.6 degrees, which is solid. His current walk rate (14.8%) is the highest he's put up at any level in his pro career. Yes, it's been just 15 games for him, but that approach is what is keeping him in the lineup every day.
While the offensive numbers are what will grab people's attention, it was his fielding that was impressing the Nationals broadcast on Sunday afternoon.
In the top of the third inning, with Jacob Young, the fastest player on the team on first, CJ Abrams doubled into the right-field corner. Butler took off towards the line to cut the ball off near the warning track, spun, and fired the ball into the infield. Given where Butler started the play and the speed of Young, the runner should have been able to score. In fact, that was his plan. He rounded third until the third base coach threw up a late stop sign once he saw Butler field the ball.
With the relay throw to home, it looked like Young would have been out at home if he had continued.
The Nationals broadcast said of Butler, "He does a great job to cut this off and get it in." The run ended up coming around to score on a ground ball to third with the A's conceding the run for an out, but this is the type of play that can help the A's win some ballgames over the course of a season.
In looking at the Outs Above Average (OAA) leaderboard, Butler is one of just 11 right fielders that have racked up +1 OAA. Nobody has accumulated two, so he is tied for first.
For the A's to reach their goal of being a .500 team, breakouts like the one that Butler is currently having are important for this club. The pitching for Oakland has been solid this year, ranking 12th in ERA with a 3.85 (league average is 4.17) and the staff ranks fifth in WAR with 2.1. Their 3.76 FIP ranks ninth. The pitching has been there for this club.
The bats have provided enough juice to rack up a 7-9 record heading into the new week, but the team overall ranks 25th in wRC+ (82, league average is 100) and 29th in runs scored with 47, good for 2.94 per game. For the A's to keep on racking up wins, they'll need guys like Ryan Noda, Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, and Brent Rooker (when healthy) to pick up their production a bit, on top of Lawrence Butler.
This A's team is becoming a very interesting follow for the 2024 season for on-field reasons, and Butler's looming breakout is one big reason why.