A's Drew Rucinski Questionable for Opening Day
We're a week out from Opening Day and the Oakland A's rotation is very much in flux. Last week it was announced that Paul Blackburn would begin the 2023 campaign on the IL, and on Wednesday it was reported that Drew Rucinski is dealing with hamstring tightness, and that he'd miss his scheduled start on Thursday. There is no timetable for him.
There is also a possibility, per Matt Kawahara, that Rucinski starts the season alongside Blackburn on the IL.
Blackburn and Rucinski were two of the surefire members of the rotation entering camp, and now the A's could be without both to begin the season. Shintaro Fujinami, the other rotation lock, is still good to go, but will likely be pitching every sixth day like he did back in Japan.
The A's front office has spent the off-season building up the club's depth, and that was part of the reason that they felt comfortable trading away Cole Irvin, because of the surplus of arms they'd accumulated in various trades. Now we're going to see just how deep Oakland really is.
In my latest roster projection, I had Fujinami, Rucinski, Kaprielian, Kyle Muller, and Adam Oller in the rotation until the A's needed a sixth starter. It was also reported this week that Oller could be in line for more of a swingman role, and that there would be one or two of those positions in the Oakland arm barn. JP Sears didn't make my personal rotation, but that is because he has bullpen experience from his time with the Yankees, and he's a left-hander. The only lefty in the bullpen currently is Sam Moll, so having Sears there would give Mark Kotsay another option. That said, his services may be needed in the rotation for at least a couple of weeks until Blackburn or Rucinski are ready, especially with Oller being limited to 50 pitches in his start on Tuesday.
If Rucinski were to miss Opening Day, the rotation would definitely include Fujinami and Kaprielian, with a strong likelihood of adding Kyle Muller to the mix. From there, the club could go with Sears or Oller, but probably not both. The final piece would likely be Ken Waldichuk, whom the A's acquired along with Sears as parts of the Frankie Montas/Lou Trivino trade with the Yankees last season.
Adrián Martínez is the only other viable starter on the 40-man roster at the moment. He made 12 starts for the A's last season en route to a 6.24 ERA, but had a propensity for giving up the long fly. He gave up 13 homers in 57.2 innings with Oakland, and 24 in 89.2 innings with Las Vegas. His expected stats were a bit better, however, with a 5.38 xERA, and a 4.11 xFIP.
Luis Medina and Hogan Harris are also on the 40-man, but they have yet to debut in the big leagues. Harris, 26, racked up a 6.35 ERA in 28.1 innings with Triple-A Las Vegas in his ascent through the system in his return from injury. Medina, another piece of the Montas trade, battled command issues with Midland last season and has yet to reach Triple-A.
A little later into the season we could see someone like Mason Miller make his debut. Miller is the A's #3 prospect according to FanGraphs and throws 100 mph consistently as a starting pitcher. Injuries have kept him off the field, but when he's on the mound he's been utterly dominant. In the Arizona Fall League, competing against some of the game's top prospects, he posted a 3.24 ERA across 16.2 innings, struck out 20, and walked just four. He had a 0.780 WHIP in that small sample. If he's healthy this season, add him to the list of most-anticipated A's debuts this season alongside Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof.
As for how the A's open the year, they could use their starting options (Sears, Oller) that they have in the rotation instead of the bullpen like they'd planned and keep some of their depth intact. In this scenario they'd be turning to the likes of Drew Steckenrider and/or Austin Pruitt in the bullpen. The A's could also go with one of Sears or Oller in the rotation, the other in the bullpen, and then use one of Steckenrider or Pruitt in the bullpen.
It would look something like this:
Rotation: Fuji, Kaprielian, Muller, Walduchuk, Sears
Bullpen: May, Jiménez, Jackson, Acevedo, Moll, Smith, Oller, Steckenrider
The A's wouldn't necessarily need a sixth starter, or a spot starter, until the second week of the season when they hit the road, thanks to two early off days. By that time, Blackburn should be on the mend from his torn nail, and the roster can be assembled more the way the front office had envisioned.
The puzzle pieces are all there for Opening Day, but what that puzzle looks like when it's assembled will depend on the health of Drew Rucinski on Opening Day.